Economic Reports 11/25/09

Empire State November

23.51 vs 34.57; New orders 16.66 vs 34.57; Despite high fuel prices, gains in raw material prices slowed as prices paid fell back about 9 points to 10.53.

Lower raw material prices are consistent with slowing demand.

Philly Fed November

16.7 vs 11.5; Employment marginally negative at minus 0.5. New orders rose sharply, to 14.8 from 6.2 in perhaps the best reading of all.

Business Inventories September

-0.4% vs -1.5%; Restocking at auto dealers, in yet another cash-for-clunkers effect, held back the rate of inventory draw.

Dealers and auto parts stores added more than $4 billion to their inventories in September for a 3.8 percent surge and biggest since 1992.

Excluding autos, business inventories fall a more noticeable 0.8%.

Durable Goods Orders October

-0.6%; Yoy new orders -11.9%; ex transport -1.3%; Yoy -11.3%; machinery – 8%, followed by a 2.1% decrease in computers & electronics.

New orders for nondefense capital goods +1.2%. Excluding aircraft, new orders for nondefense capital goods fell 2.9%.

PPI October

+0.3%; Yoy -1.9%; Core -0.6%; Yoy +0.7%; The core rate was pulled down primarily by 5.2% drop in light truck prices and a 0.5% decline in prices for passenger cars.

Inflation pressures firmed at earlier stages of production. Prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.3% and the crude goods index increased 5.4%.

CPI October

+0.3%; Core +0.2%; Energy, gasoline, medical care & food all rising.

TIC September

$40.7B vs $28.6B; Foreign demand for U.S. financial assets remains light but is up in the latest data.

Demand for long-term Treasuries was also very strong, up a net $44.4B. China, which is voicing concern over the decline in the dollar, is not increasing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

Industrial Production October

+0.1%; Yoy -7.1%; Utilization 70.7% vs 70.5%; the manufacturing component declined 0.1%; durables fell 0.4%; manufacturing ex-motor vehicles was down 0.1%

GDP Q3:09

Year-on-year, real GDP stood at minus 2.4% compared to minus 3.8% in the second quarter. First, final sales were revised down to an annualized 1.9%.

Demand is not as strong as earlier believed. Second, the downward revision to the price index also indicates softness in demand.

Corporate profits are still down 7.2% on a year-on-year basis, compared to down 19.2% in Q2.

NAHB Housing Index November

17 vs 18; A negative in the details is that traffic is especially weak in what is a bad sign for the nation's home builders.

S&P Case Shiller September

10 city +0.4%; Yoy -8.5%; in contrast with price data in the existing home sales report where contraction, though slowing a bit, is still underway.

Existing Home Sales October

+10.1% at 6.1M; Yoy +23.5%; inventory -136K at 3.57M; 7 vs 8 months; median price -1.6% at 173K; Yoy -7.1%.

New Home Sales October

+6.2% at 430K; Supply at current sales rate is 6.7 vs 7.4 months; average price -8.3%

Housing Starts October

Starts -10.6% at 529K; Yoy -30.7%; YTD -41.9%; SFR -6.8%; Yoy -10.9%; YTD -32.5%

Permits -4% at 552K; Yoy 24.3%; YTD -40.5%; SFR -0.2%; Yoy -4%; YTD -29%

Personal Income & Spending October

Income +0.2%; Yoy -1%; Spending +0.7%; Yoy +0.9%; Core PCE +0.2%.

We are seeing probably the final impact of cash-for-clunkers on personal spending in October. Motor vehicle sales fell sharply in September with the ending of incentives in August.

After taking into account weakness in wages and salaries and that the spending gain was a partial rebound from clunkers, it is indicative of a soft consumer sector.

Initial Jobless Claims 11/21

-35K at 466K; 4 week MA -16.5K at 496.5K; Continuing claims -190K at 5.423M; 4 week MA -98.5K at 5.613M

Emergency claims +16.370K at 3.639M vs 766K last year.

Economic Reports 11/13/09

Import & Export Prices October

Export +0.3%; Yoy -3.4%; Import +0.7%; Yoy -5.7%. Evidence of dollar “debauch” based inflation.

BLS is also saying that the price increases for imported raw materials and metals, including precious metals, are in fact "tied" to the dollar. Really? Duh!

Trade Balance Level September

$-36.5B vs $-30.7B; widening on significantly higher oil prices; more evidence of dollar based inflation.

Physical barrels imported +6.6% vs -9.4%. The price of imported oil rose to $68.17 vs $64.75.

Exports +2.9%; Yoy -13.2%; Imports +5.8%; Yoy -20.6%. The rise in export appears to be more real than the boost in imports.

Initial Jobless Claims 11/07

-12K at 502K; 4 week MA -4.5K at 519K; Continuing claims -139K at 5.631M; 4 week MA -100K at 5.790M.

Continuing claims declines are due to expiration of benefits, witnessed by emergency compensation claims + 20K to 3.52M vs 820K a year ago.

Economic Reports 11/06/09

Construction Spending September

Total +0.8%; Yoy -13%; August was revised from +0.8% to +0.1%. Residential +3.9%; Yoy -26.3%; YTD -30.4%

Total Private +0.5%; Yoy -20.6%; Residential +3.9%; Yoy -27% YTD -31.2%

ISM Mfg Index October

55.7 vs 52.6; in contrast to the non farms report employment +7 to 53.1; production +7.5 to 63.3.

In contrast to Factory Orders data; Inventories +4.5 to 46.9 as destocking ends and restocking begins??

However, forward momentum is not accelerating witnessed by new orders declining for the 2nd straight month, 58.5 vs. Sept 60.8 and Aug 64.9.

ISM Services October

50.6 vs 50.9; new orders +1.4 at 55.6; However, employment -3 at 41.1; inventories destocking -4.5 to 43.

Factory Orders September

+0.9% vs -0.8%; durable +1.4%; non durable +0.6% (boosted by chemical prices). All orders including unfilled Yoy -25.8%

A rebound in nondefense capital goods orders +2.3% (ex aircraft +1.8%) though the outlook for further increases is uncertain given weak indications on business investment.

In contrast to the ISM; Unfilled orders -0.4%; the 12th straight decline, the longest in the data series history since 1992.

Inventories continue to destock with a 13th straight decline -1%.

Wholesale Trade September

Inventories -0.9% vs -1.3%; Yoy -15% as destocking continues. Sales +0.7%;

Less-than-robust sales combined with continued destocking point to future job losses in the wholesale sector.

ADP Employment October

-203K vs -227K; small -75K; mid -75K; large -53K; goods producing -117K; services -86K; manufacturing -65K; construction -51K.

Productivity & Costs Q309

Productivity +9.5% vs +6.6%; Costs -5.2% vs -5.9%; as corporate America tightens further through layoffs.

The latest productivity numbers are good news for companies trying to improve their profits but they are bad news for the unemployed.

Firms are expecting remaining employers to work harder instead of starting to rehire.

Initial Jobless Claims 10/31

-20K at 512K; 4 week MA -3K at 523.75K; Continuing claims -68K at 5.817M; 4 week MA -79.5K at 5.886M. The list of states increasing >1K swelled.

The continuing claims number keeps declining due to claims running out. How do we know this?

Emergency claims +90.239K at 3.459M vs last year 836K as the ranks of chronically long term unemployed swell.

Non Farm Payrolls October

-190K vs -219K; Unemployment 10.2% vs 9.8% the highest since 1983; goods producing -129K; construction -62K; services -61K; trade & transportation -66K.

The really bad news within the unemployment rate spike is that it was not due to a rise in the labor force...

(more choosing to look for jobs) but by a 558K surge in the number of unemployed.

The labor force actually dipped 31K with 35.6% of unemployed being long term and Table A12 U6 total unemployment hit 17.5%.

Q309 Advance GDP Recalculated

From our earlier Q3 GDP post:

Excluding sales, production and inventories of automobiles, the economy grew 1.9% last quarter.

Ex auto GDP +1.9%; without the reduction in inventory adding 0.94%; real GDP is +0.96%.

The Nattering One muses... so without cash for clunkers we are down from 3.5% to 1.9%.

Further, without the inventory liquidation, we fall to 0.96%.

But NO, that's not all you get... just when you thought you were safe, it gets worse...

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.5%, a sign that a "recovery" is anything but under way...

In addition, the $8K housing tax credit, boosted residential fixed investment 23.4% vs a Q2 decrease of 23.3%, which was its first increase since the Q405...

This added 0.53% to real GDP; deducting this plunges real Q3 advance GDP to a whopping +0.43%.

Take away our National Defense expenditures contribution (read the war on terrorism, which jumped 8.4% on some large military aircraft orders)...

which contributed +0.45% and we have negative 0.02% real GDP for Q309.

Again, don't look now, but without cash for clunkers, further inventory workoff & the housing tax credit, Q4 is probably going to have negative real GDP.

Yes, Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (a key indicator of business investment in capital equipment) jumped 2% in September.

However, Yoy, total durable goods orders were down 19.6%. And further...

How much impact did the sunset of the $8K housing tax credit already have?

Sales of new homes decreased for the first time in six months, falling 3.6%.

Moreover, Yoy new home sales were 7.8% lower and the Yoy median sales price of a new home dipped 9.1%.

Remember, consumer spending or PCE is what this high fivin Q3 GDP blippin estimate is 70% based upon (2.36 of 3.4%).

How does this bode "well" for further "recovery" in Q4?...

when real disposable personal income decreased 3.4% and consumer spending sank 0.5% in September, the largest drop in nine months.

From a Naybob of Transport aka Where the Rubber Meets the Road:

I don’t believe the next quarter will look nearly this good. Cash for Clunkers is gone...

First time Home buyers tax credit gone, fuel prices rising, dollar declining, and the beginning of the big squeeze on commercial real estate loans.

Look for more banks to crap out, and some big ones like Citibank. Credit remains tight, consumer confidence is down and new home sales tanked once again.

As the old adage goes, it aint over till the fat lady sings, and she’s not singing and she’s not looking too fat right now either.

We hate to rain on a parade, but will gleefully break up this illegal assembly...

The Nattering One concurs, she's not even lip-synching yet.

Economic Reports Week of 10/30/09

S&P Case Schiller Home Price Index Aug

Good news: 10 city +1.3% at 157.93; 20 city +1.2% at 146.

Bad news: 10 city Yoy -10.6%; 20 city Yoy -11.3%; Las Vegas Yoy -29.9%; San Francisco -12.5%

New Home Sales September

-3.6% at 402K; Yoy -7.8%; YTD -26.6% with a steep downward revision of -25K sales to prior months. Good news? Median price +2.5% at 204K.

Chicago PMI Oct

54.2 vs 46.1; good news: 17 point surge in production and a more than 15 point surge in new orders.

Bad news: employment is one reading that didn't surge, slipping 5 tenths to a 38.3 level that indicates a slightly increasing rate in layoffs.

Business’s drew down their inventories in the month with the index down nearly 7 points to 32.2.

Durable Goods Orders September

+1%; Yoy -19.6%; ex auto +0.9%; Yoy -16.9%; Weakness was seen in electrical equipment, down 0.9%; computers & electronics, down 0.2%; and "all other durables," down 1.4%.

Businesses may be investing in equipment more in coming months as orders for nondefense capital goods rebounded 2.5%.

Personal Income & Spending September

Income Flat; Yoy -2.8%; Spending -0.5%; Yoy -0.3%; Core PCE price index +0.1%; Yoy +1.3%

More post cash for clunkers effects as the consumer sector softened in both income and spending.

With cash-for-clunkers having expired in August, consumer spending fell significantly on a plunge in motor vehicle sales.

The decline was led by durables, which fell a monthly 7%. Nondurables increased 0.7% while services advanced a moderate 0.2%.

Initial Jobless Claims 10/29

-1K at 530K; 4 week MA -6K at 526.25K; Continuing claims -148K at 5.797M; 4 week MA -78.75K at 5.96M

The number keeps falling, but not due to new hires, due to termination of benefits.

Economic Reports Week Ending 10/23/09

NAHB/WF Housing Index Oct

18 vs 19; pending expiration of the $8K tax credit already taking its toll; traffic -3 at 14.

The results hint at a step back for housing which had been on the rebound thanks to government stimulus.

Existing Home Sales September

Good news: +9.4% to 5.57M vs 5.1M; inventory down 7.5% at 3.63M; 7.8 vs 9.3 months at current pace.

Bad news: prices -1.4% median $175K; Yoy -8.5%. Distressed sales made up 29% of total sales.

Still, home values are very weak and will continue to weaken consumer confidence and spending power and will limit the ability of consumers to tap into home equity.

Housing Starts & Permits September

No recovery here, despite the tax credit, YTD is still a disaster with the indication of future growth, permits, declining further.

Starts +0.5% at 590K; Yoy -28.2%; YTD -42.7%; SFR +3.9%; Yoy -8.7%; YTD -34.5%

Permits -1.2% at 573K; Yoy -28.9%;YTD -41.9%; SFR -3%; Yoy -14.9%; YTD -30.9%

PPI September

-0.6% vs +1.7%; Yoy -4.7%; Core -0.1% vs +0.2%; Yoy +1.8%

PPI is still lagging the recent jump to $80 a barrel oil. Inflation clearly has been temporarily masked by weak demand and an earlier dip in oil prices.

But in coming months we will see a rise in the headline number from recently strong oil prices.

Initial Jobless Claims 10/22

+11K at 531K; 4 week MA -750 at 532.25K; Continuing claims -98K at 5.923M; 4 week MA -59K at 6.030M

Headline number increased, continuing claims is decreasing not due to hiring; but due to expiration of benefits.

List of states with greater than 1K increase is long and hard.

The Nattering One muses... It appears the home tax credit and credit for clunkers effects are starting to wane.

The actual increase from all this stimulus to Q309 advance GDP was 0.94%, but that isn't the end of the story.

You can't handle the truth... Sept. Machinery and furniture output fell 0.9% and 1%, respectively. Compared with September 2008, total manufacturing production fell 7.2%.

Total retail sales fell 1.5%; Yoy -5.7%; as post cash for clunkers motor vehicle sales plunged 10.4%.

We repeat, no one and nothing stops this trainwreck, bailout and stimulus package all you want...

As we have maintained all along... no repatriated durable economic jobs, no durable economic base, no recovery, end of story.

Q309 GDP

US Q309 Advance GDP +3.5%

The 3.8% contraction in the 12 months to June was the worst performance in seven decades.

The four consecutive decreases mark the longest stretch of declines since quarterly records began in 1947.

+3.4% Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy...

“largely reflected” an increase in purchases of automobiles attributable to the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” plan, the report said.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.5%.

Purchases of durable goods, which include autos, jumped 22%, the biggest increase since 2001.

Excluding sales, production and inventories of automobiles, the economy grew 1.9% last quarter.

Since the recession began in December 2007, the U.S. has lost 7.2 million jobs.

Monthly payroll cuts peaked at 741K in January before falling to 263K job losses in September.

Policy makers will now focus on whether the “recovery”, supported by government spending and tax credits, can be sustained into 2010 and generate jobs.

The Nattering One muses… ex auto GDP +1.9%; without the reduction in inventory adding 0.94%; real GDP is +0.96%.

Can it be sustained? Without $8K homebuyer tax credits and cash for clunkers a Q409 negative GDP will be a bitter pill to swallow.

A New Wave of Foreclosures

From RealtyTrac...

Las Vegas posted the nation’s highest metro foreclosure rate, with 5.13% (one in 20) of its housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter—nearly seven times the national average.

A total of 40,408 Las Vegas properties received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, an increase of nearly 9% from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 54% from the third quarter of 2008.

Despite a 13% decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous quarter, Merced, Calif., posted the nation’s second highest foreclosure rate, with 3.72% (one in 27) of its housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the third quarter.

A total of 3,092 Merced properties received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, down 11% from the third quarter of 2008.

Foreclosure activity in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area in Florida also decreased from the previous quarter and from the third quarter of 2008...

but the metro area still registered the nation’s third highest metro foreclosure rate—with 3.67% (one in 27) of its housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter.

A total of 13,206 Cape Coral-Fort Myers properties received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, a decrease of 5% from the previous quarter and down 2% from the third quarter of 2008.

Other metro areas in the top 10 were the California cities of Stockton (3.53%), Modesto (3.39%), Riverside-San Bernardino (3.37%), Bakersfield (2.88%), and Vallejo-Fairfield (2.85%), along with the Reno-Sparks metro area in Nevada (2.67%) and the Florida metro areas of Port St. Lucie (2.63%) and Orlando-Kissimmee (2.57%).

Grim Reality

Some very Naybobish reality from a Naybob of Realty via Rismedia...

"While most economists concur that the jobless rate will move even higher for at least several more months...

recent data paint a grim picture for the likelihood of the unemployment rate falling significantly anytime soon.

And the truth is, the real unemployment rate in the US is now at 17%, if the government...

reported all of the people who are out of work and those who are having to work part-time because they can't find a full-time job.

The media and the government are reporting as if the economy has already recovered...

while ignoring the fact that loan defaults and unemployment continue to rise in many areas.

All I can say is that I don't believe this liberal experiment will end pretty."

The Nattering One muses... Oh so true... but dont even try to blame this BUSHWHACKING on the liberals...

for the hole that the Bush Administration dug in its 8 years, 6 of which with total control of the Congress.

Blame must also go to 25 years of bipartisan deregulation by our whores on the hill...

which caused the ascendancy of the house of finance, globalization and outsourcing to labor at the margin.

We repeat, NOTHING and NO ONE can stop this trainwreck. Until the repatriation of 6 million manufacturing jobs occurs, NO RECOVERY EITHER.