Market Soapbox 04/27/05
DJIA+47 10198;SP500+4.6 1156;Nasdaq+3 1930;NDX+3 1423
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Stong: telecom, financial, health care, drug, utility, tech, consumer staples, industrials, networking
Weak: energy, materials, airline, biotech, software, semi
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.1700 105.8500 ; vs Euro: +0.0054 1.2932
Bonds: 10-yr note +10 ticks yielding -.040 4.23%
Gold: XAU -4.02%; $432.10 -4.90 CRB: 305.88 -3.90
Oil: XOI -2.48%, Cushing Crude $52.60; -$1.60; -2.95%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 50/74; Nasdaq 32/127; Amex 15/31
A/D Volume: NYSE 10/9, Nasdaq 8/9, Amex 14/12
Volume: NYSE 2.05B, Nasdaq 1.78B
Upcoming Notable reports:
THU: GDP & Chain Deflator, Jobless
FRI: Personal Income
Dollar split vs. Yen/Euro; European (DAX -1.06%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.28%), gold, commodities & oil all pounded down. Bonds up on short covering. Contra action: $ and bonds up.
8 of 10 sectors up on increased volume. 20 of 30 SP500 companies reporting beat the number. Oil whipsawing after + 6.4% last week, - 4% Mon, +4% Tue, -5% Today. Big Winner: Healthcare +3.28%, Big Losers: Gold, Airlines, Natural Gas, Oil, Commodities. Not a good sign.
Mar. durable orders -2.8%, est +0.3% (Feb -0.2%) the biggest drop in 2 1/2 years, excluding transportation - 1.0%. Weak auto sales made this number puffy and the market over reacted.
EIA oil inventory +5.5M barrels (est +650K) the highest weekly jump since May 2002. Gasoline inventory -300K barrels (est. -1.0 M). Maybe people are going out less because the gasoline prices are higher, hello.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to: Deutsche Securties for (ATML) Atmel, 12 mo. income -2.4M, 12 mo. stock price -63%, net profit margin -0.10%, negative EPS & deceleratng revenues Q3 - Q4, upgraded from HOLD to BUY, stock up 7.01%. Alrighty then.
Amazon -3.15%; Q1 profits -30%, lowered Q2 earnings estimates -7% to 42%. Q1 earnings miss from STMicroelectronics (STM) -5.37% and lowered guidance from NEC -0.72% and Fujitsu. No surprises here.
Conoco Phillips with rock solid numbers and a license to print money, fell -2.38%, Phelps Dodge up to their ears in metals, had a record quarter and fell 4.5%. Not a good sign.
It was a dip and bounce day. After the durable goods number, the market dipped down. After the EIA report, oil pulled back, short covering on bonds commenced, the market bounced to gain back some of yesterday's losses. Into the stretch it waved a pennant sideways on higher volume. Today's internals were nothing to write home about.
Today is Q1's largest afternoon of quarterly reports, after the bell (99) reports of beer on the wall. Gotcha, tomorrow, the biggest morning of Q1 reports (131); Exxon Mobil, Shell, Unocal, Dow, Procter & Gamble and Microsoft report.
Add GDP & jobless reports and this could sway the market. Lowered GDP would ease inflation fears and good news from the heavyweights could give the market a lift. However, be cognizant of forward estimates.
If estimates are lowered across the board and the chain deflator gives a negative surprise, then the market will get hammered on recession fears. After some numbers are digested, I suspect oil stocks will catch a bid in a flight to safety, tech, especially semis, should take a hit. The DJIA still needs to cover his gap @ 10278.75.
I am expecting a little bit of this and that, resulting in a sideways split tape day, deteriorating later in the day, leaking into the close, getting a head start down for Friday, which should be a consolidation day.
Of course the market could get a bowl of porridge that Goldilocks likes and in that case, it will roar up in a triple digit day. Which would make Friday an even bigger consolidation day. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Stong: telecom, financial, health care, drug, utility, tech, consumer staples, industrials, networking
Weak: energy, materials, airline, biotech, software, semi
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.1700 105.8500 ; vs Euro: +0.0054 1.2932
Bonds: 10-yr note +10 ticks yielding -.040 4.23%
Gold: XAU -4.02%; $432.10 -4.90 CRB: 305.88 -3.90
Oil: XOI -2.48%, Cushing Crude $52.60; -$1.60; -2.95%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 50/74; Nasdaq 32/127; Amex 15/31
A/D Volume: NYSE 10/9, Nasdaq 8/9, Amex 14/12
Volume: NYSE 2.05B, Nasdaq 1.78B
Upcoming Notable reports:
THU: GDP & Chain Deflator, Jobless
FRI: Personal Income
Dollar split vs. Yen/Euro; European (DAX -1.06%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.28%), gold, commodities & oil all pounded down. Bonds up on short covering. Contra action: $ and bonds up.
8 of 10 sectors up on increased volume. 20 of 30 SP500 companies reporting beat the number. Oil whipsawing after + 6.4% last week, - 4% Mon, +4% Tue, -5% Today. Big Winner: Healthcare +3.28%, Big Losers: Gold, Airlines, Natural Gas, Oil, Commodities. Not a good sign.
Mar. durable orders -2.8%, est +0.3% (Feb -0.2%) the biggest drop in 2 1/2 years, excluding transportation - 1.0%. Weak auto sales made this number puffy and the market over reacted.
EIA oil inventory +5.5M barrels (est +650K) the highest weekly jump since May 2002. Gasoline inventory -300K barrels (est. -1.0 M). Maybe people are going out less because the gasoline prices are higher, hello.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to: Deutsche Securties for (ATML) Atmel, 12 mo. income -2.4M, 12 mo. stock price -63%, net profit margin -0.10%, negative EPS & deceleratng revenues Q3 - Q4, upgraded from HOLD to BUY, stock up 7.01%. Alrighty then.
Amazon -3.15%; Q1 profits -30%, lowered Q2 earnings estimates -7% to 42%. Q1 earnings miss from STMicroelectronics (STM) -5.37% and lowered guidance from NEC -0.72% and Fujitsu. No surprises here.
Conoco Phillips with rock solid numbers and a license to print money, fell -2.38%, Phelps Dodge up to their ears in metals, had a record quarter and fell 4.5%. Not a good sign.
It was a dip and bounce day. After the durable goods number, the market dipped down. After the EIA report, oil pulled back, short covering on bonds commenced, the market bounced to gain back some of yesterday's losses. Into the stretch it waved a pennant sideways on higher volume. Today's internals were nothing to write home about.
Today is Q1's largest afternoon of quarterly reports, after the bell (99) reports of beer on the wall. Gotcha, tomorrow, the biggest morning of Q1 reports (131); Exxon Mobil, Shell, Unocal, Dow, Procter & Gamble and Microsoft report.
Add GDP & jobless reports and this could sway the market. Lowered GDP would ease inflation fears and good news from the heavyweights could give the market a lift. However, be cognizant of forward estimates.
If estimates are lowered across the board and the chain deflator gives a negative surprise, then the market will get hammered on recession fears. After some numbers are digested, I suspect oil stocks will catch a bid in a flight to safety, tech, especially semis, should take a hit. The DJIA still needs to cover his gap @ 10278.75.
I am expecting a little bit of this and that, resulting in a sideways split tape day, deteriorating later in the day, leaking into the close, getting a head start down for Friday, which should be a consolidation day.
Of course the market could get a bowl of porridge that Goldilocks likes and in that case, it will roar up in a triple digit day. Which would make Friday an even bigger consolidation day. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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