Market Soapbox 05/20/05
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1550
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Positive: tech, biotech, broadband, B2B, semis, network, healthcare, transports
Weak: Everything else
For 52 Week HiLo, A/D Volume, Volume and Market Momentum go to the sidebar, look for Favorite Tools - BarCharts - Market Momentum, click on it. Everything you ever needed in one screen.
European (DAX +0.01%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.36%) were split. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, gold, oil, bonds & commodities down. Contra action: None.
Today's Sooey Pig Pig!! Goes to me as the pig is taking a break to put some lipstick on.
A sideways split tape, up and down day, resulted in a quiet close with a small week ending sell off. Improved internals and a continuation of the best rally since October. 8 of 10 sectors down on very lite volume.
The dollar is at its highest level since Oct. 20 against the euro and the 3 year dollar bear market may be over. Bad news for semis in reports that N. American chip makers suffered a 37% drop in April orders, this comes as no surprise here.
The last two weeks economic reports indicate rising energy costs, inflation, and oil/gasoline inventories. They also reveal a slowdown in industrial production, utilization and a modification in consumer spending.
We could see another down wave between now and June 9th. But my sense is barring a terrorist attack, the downside limit is around 9700-9900 DJIA, and having already bounced at 10K, we may not make it that far as the market is suddenly showing some legs.
This means we could be close to a tradable market bottom. Time to start sniffing around for value. The next 3 weeks would be a good time to follow George Soros queue, dump trendy tech & old guard stocks, then slowly build a base with energy stocks.
For a broadbase index approach, Midcaps have fallen the least and tend to gain on a steady basis as compared to their bigger brothers and more volatile cousins. Look at the MID for the last 5 years to see the proof. Profunds UltraMidCap fund is worth a look.
The oil futures selloff continues but the energy sector has diverged. Even though oil prices may go as low as $42, the oil companies have a license to print money all the way down to $30, which we will not see in our lifetime again.
As the stocks do not reflect the earnings potential, the energy sector is underpriced. Oil sands, coal, canroys (Canadian Royalty Trusts) and oil transports will all be steadfast as long as the sisters rule the roost.
A weak and sickly herd always needs to be tended to. This means that barring socialization or the end of fast food & obesity, health care and pharmaceutical have a license to print money as well.
Before the oil wars are over, the water wars will commence. And water will be the most valued commodity on the planet, bar none. If I have one word to give you for the future, its H2O and anything that has to do with it.
Looking at the tech bleeding edge, on the healthcare end, a select few bio & nano tech stocks. On the idiot box front, a smattering of broadband, wireless, telecom and B2B providers. These will be the dot con's of the next decade.
This is where you put the Vegas money, its high beta, hit & miss, not for the light of heart and should be a small percentage of the portfolio. Anyone heavily vested will either get lucky and hit a grand slam home run or strike out and fail miserably.
Monday, Tues I look for more sideways and upward action. Wen perhaps a consolidation. We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Steinway or Maytag perhaps? Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
P.S. Please read todays Vacation posting.
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Positive: tech, biotech, broadband, B2B, semis, network, healthcare, transports
Weak: Everything else
For 52 Week HiLo, A/D Volume, Volume and Market Momentum go to the sidebar, look for Favorite Tools - BarCharts - Market Momentum, click on it. Everything you ever needed in one screen.
European (DAX +0.01%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.36%) were split. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, gold, oil, bonds & commodities down. Contra action: None.
Today's Sooey Pig Pig!! Goes to me as the pig is taking a break to put some lipstick on.
A sideways split tape, up and down day, resulted in a quiet close with a small week ending sell off. Improved internals and a continuation of the best rally since October. 8 of 10 sectors down on very lite volume.
The dollar is at its highest level since Oct. 20 against the euro and the 3 year dollar bear market may be over. Bad news for semis in reports that N. American chip makers suffered a 37% drop in April orders, this comes as no surprise here.
The last two weeks economic reports indicate rising energy costs, inflation, and oil/gasoline inventories. They also reveal a slowdown in industrial production, utilization and a modification in consumer spending.
We could see another down wave between now and June 9th. But my sense is barring a terrorist attack, the downside limit is around 9700-9900 DJIA, and having already bounced at 10K, we may not make it that far as the market is suddenly showing some legs.
This means we could be close to a tradable market bottom. Time to start sniffing around for value. The next 3 weeks would be a good time to follow George Soros queue, dump trendy tech & old guard stocks, then slowly build a base with energy stocks.
For a broadbase index approach, Midcaps have fallen the least and tend to gain on a steady basis as compared to their bigger brothers and more volatile cousins. Look at the MID for the last 5 years to see the proof. Profunds UltraMidCap fund is worth a look.
The oil futures selloff continues but the energy sector has diverged. Even though oil prices may go as low as $42, the oil companies have a license to print money all the way down to $30, which we will not see in our lifetime again.
As the stocks do not reflect the earnings potential, the energy sector is underpriced. Oil sands, coal, canroys (Canadian Royalty Trusts) and oil transports will all be steadfast as long as the sisters rule the roost.
A weak and sickly herd always needs to be tended to. This means that barring socialization or the end of fast food & obesity, health care and pharmaceutical have a license to print money as well.
Before the oil wars are over, the water wars will commence. And water will be the most valued commodity on the planet, bar none. If I have one word to give you for the future, its H2O and anything that has to do with it.
Looking at the tech bleeding edge, on the healthcare end, a select few bio & nano tech stocks. On the idiot box front, a smattering of broadband, wireless, telecom and B2B providers. These will be the dot con's of the next decade.
This is where you put the Vegas money, its high beta, hit & miss, not for the light of heart and should be a small percentage of the portfolio. Anyone heavily vested will either get lucky and hit a grand slam home run or strike out and fail miserably.
Monday, Tues I look for more sideways and upward action. Wen perhaps a consolidation. We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Steinway or Maytag perhaps? Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
P.S. Please read todays Vacation posting.
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