Bad Moon Risin or Just Another Walk in the Park?
I think the wild market swings up & down are the sign of another camel hump or double top. Look at a major index chart of 04 and 05 to date.
You will find a distinct sideways up and down 4 to 5 hump per year pattern, with a rise to a new level at the end of 04.
Given the economic soft patch, global labor arbitrage, world economies slowing, and dependence on the American consumer. Other than overliquification and sector manipulation, there is no economic or logical impetus for the markets to go up further.
With real estate, oil, commodities, gold, bonds and stocks all at highs and grossly overvalued, all the red flags are up and waving and this could be the perfect storm.
An overabundance of leveraged money in real estate speculation world wide, the rest in the hands of previously overliquid hedge funds and instutional investors chasing yield and throwing caution to the wind.
And who now are attempting to quietly scramble to cover their losses in leveraged positions in riskier derivatives of risky derivatives of unpredictable derivatives.
The big question is what could precipitate a collapse of investor confidence, and then the inevitable rush for the exits? This is where we already know, a thousand fat guys can't all fit through the turnstiles and doors at once.
29, 87 and 2000 come to mind, hopefully we never see it happen again in our lifetime. Just a passing thought to ponder.
You will find a distinct sideways up and down 4 to 5 hump per year pattern, with a rise to a new level at the end of 04.
Given the economic soft patch, global labor arbitrage, world economies slowing, and dependence on the American consumer. Other than overliquification and sector manipulation, there is no economic or logical impetus for the markets to go up further.
With real estate, oil, commodities, gold, bonds and stocks all at highs and grossly overvalued, all the red flags are up and waving and this could be the perfect storm.
An overabundance of leveraged money in real estate speculation world wide, the rest in the hands of previously overliquid hedge funds and instutional investors chasing yield and throwing caution to the wind.
And who now are attempting to quietly scramble to cover their losses in leveraged positions in riskier derivatives of risky derivatives of unpredictable derivatives.
The big question is what could precipitate a collapse of investor confidence, and then the inevitable rush for the exits? This is where we already know, a thousand fat guys can't all fit through the turnstiles and doors at once.
29, 87 and 2000 come to mind, hopefully we never see it happen again in our lifetime. Just a passing thought to ponder.
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