Market Soapbox 12/01/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1275; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1700
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Initial jobless claims -17K to 320K vs est. 325K; Oct personal income +0.4% vs prior +1.7%; showing a pullback in personal income growth. A rise in construction spending +0.7% vs prior +0.2%.
Nov. ISM Index @ 58.1 vs. prior 59.1 showing a slower rate of expansion. The prices paid component @ 74 vs est. 78 vs prior 84, easing inflation concerns spawned yesterday by the same indicator rising in the Chicago PMI.
Personal spending +0.2% vs prior +0.5%; showing a pullback in personal spending growth. The core PCE deflator +0.1% from +0.2%, deceivingly suggesting core inflation remains under control. More later on this canard...
Todays, DUMB & DUMBER award once again goes to GM investors. Yesterday GM stock drubbed again -4.8%, losing 19% in November. Today +1.5% on a poor auto & truck sales report that had GM showing an 11.0% decline in Nov sales vs est. -13%. In related news, Ford had a larger than expected sales decline of 14.8%.
Excuse me, but an 11% decline is an 11% decline, this is a sinking ship folks, what part of a DOUBLE DIGIT DECLINE do these investors not understand? DUH!!!
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Tues, DJIA -3, Wen, DJIA -82 crashing into the close. Today, broadbased rally with AUTHORITY on spectacular internals and with conviction, DJIA +107. This week DJIA -18 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +208.
SOX leading the way as all indices were up BIG, SP500, XAU, XOI, MID & RUT roared. All foreign indexes were up BIGTIME, CAC up, DAX up, FTSE up, Hang Seng up & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold up, XOI & crude up 2% @ 58.47, CRB commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: $ up, with gold & oil & commodities. Sectors: All sectors up BIGTIME.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.51% & the 30 year @ 4.71. The 2 & 5 year @ 1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Dec 2: Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment.
From yesterday: "Tomorrows ISM report will show increased costs at a national level. This will further spook the market with inflation fears. " Today's core PCE deflator obscured increased costs and investors cheered.
We will address this econometric canard in another post today. New fund inflows on the first trading day of the month helped improve underlying sentiment as well as provide some conviction with higher than usual volumes.
The SOX up 4.2% today, hitting a 3.5 year high. We are keeping an eye on the Semis for a potential short, as Q2 reporting mid January with the new options expensing could annihilate Semis and tech.
YTD Energy +34%, Refiners +73%, today's futures Crude Oil +1.9%, gasoline +4.4% and heating oil +2.8%. The market is umbilically tethered to energy futures, this does not bode well in the event of a futures pullback.
Virtually un noticed by most: The dollar went up despite the European Central Bank unveiling its first rate hike in more than five years, lifting its key interest rate by a quarter point to 2.25 percent in an effort to stop high oil prices from spilling over into wage inflation.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong. This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Initial jobless claims -17K to 320K vs est. 325K; Oct personal income +0.4% vs prior +1.7%; showing a pullback in personal income growth. A rise in construction spending +0.7% vs prior +0.2%.
Nov. ISM Index @ 58.1 vs. prior 59.1 showing a slower rate of expansion. The prices paid component @ 74 vs est. 78 vs prior 84, easing inflation concerns spawned yesterday by the same indicator rising in the Chicago PMI.
Personal spending +0.2% vs prior +0.5%; showing a pullback in personal spending growth. The core PCE deflator +0.1% from +0.2%, deceivingly suggesting core inflation remains under control. More later on this canard...
Todays, DUMB & DUMBER award once again goes to GM investors. Yesterday GM stock drubbed again -4.8%, losing 19% in November. Today +1.5% on a poor auto & truck sales report that had GM showing an 11.0% decline in Nov sales vs est. -13%. In related news, Ford had a larger than expected sales decline of 14.8%.
Excuse me, but an 11% decline is an 11% decline, this is a sinking ship folks, what part of a DOUBLE DIGIT DECLINE do these investors not understand? DUH!!!
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Tues, DJIA -3, Wen, DJIA -82 crashing into the close. Today, broadbased rally with AUTHORITY on spectacular internals and with conviction, DJIA +107. This week DJIA -18 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +208.
SOX leading the way as all indices were up BIG, SP500, XAU, XOI, MID & RUT roared. All foreign indexes were up BIGTIME, CAC up, DAX up, FTSE up, Hang Seng up & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold up, XOI & crude up 2% @ 58.47, CRB commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: $ up, with gold & oil & commodities. Sectors: All sectors up BIGTIME.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.51% & the 30 year @ 4.71. The 2 & 5 year @ 1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Dec 2: Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment.
From yesterday: "Tomorrows ISM report will show increased costs at a national level. This will further spook the market with inflation fears. " Today's core PCE deflator obscured increased costs and investors cheered.
We will address this econometric canard in another post today. New fund inflows on the first trading day of the month helped improve underlying sentiment as well as provide some conviction with higher than usual volumes.
The SOX up 4.2% today, hitting a 3.5 year high. We are keeping an eye on the Semis for a potential short, as Q2 reporting mid January with the new options expensing could annihilate Semis and tech.
YTD Energy +34%, Refiners +73%, today's futures Crude Oil +1.9%, gasoline +4.4% and heating oil +2.8%. The market is umbilically tethered to energy futures, this does not bode well in the event of a futures pullback.
Virtually un noticed by most: The dollar went up despite the European Central Bank unveiling its first rate hike in more than five years, lifting its key interest rate by a quarter point to 2.25 percent in an effort to stop high oil prices from spilling over into wage inflation.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong. This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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