Market Soapbox 02/07/06
Resistance: DJIA 10950; SP500 1285; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2245; NDX 1650
Volume:
NYSE +402M -1.2B Total 1.6B Hi 46 Lo 25
NAZ +829M -1.2B Total 2.0B Hi 54 Lo 21
AMEX +8M -77M Total 88M Hi 27 Lo 11
BBOTC +619M -3.5B Total 4.4B Hi 162 Lo 105
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, we are sneaking one in today, but tomorrow we are probably MIA.
Disney and Coca Cola beat expectations. Toll Brothers gave lowered guidance, 29% reduction in homes built, homebuilders were brutalized. GM cut its dividend 50%,
A major pull back day on profit taking for commodities, steel, oil and especially gold with the largest single day fall in 13 years.
Todays action was sparked by a massive Japanese selloff identical to the one in December. As the underlying commodity goes, so go the equities; Gold Bugs -8%; XAU -7%, XOI -3.4%.
Consumer resilience shown in Redbook Sales report as major retailers +3.3% YOY for the week ended Feb. 4. and Consumer Credit +3.3B vs prior -0.6B.
Recent DJIA History: 20 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 19 weeks +148, 18 weeks -281, 17 weeks -6, 16 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 15 weeks recovery begins +186, 14 weeks +128, 13 weeks +154, 12 weeks +79, 11 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
10 weeks -53, 9 weeks -99, 8 weeks +99, 7 weeks +8. 6 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 5 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 4 weeks +0, 3 weeks -292, 2 weeks +240, 1 week -113. 5 week gain +75.
Today, a broadbased slapdown, DJIA -49 on slightly less volume with mediocre internals. This week DJIA -44, over the last 20 weeks DJIA +46.
DJUA, DJTA, SP500, XOI, XAU, MID, RUT & NYSE beat down. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Sectors: Semis, Commodity, Oil, Natural Gas, Transports, Utilities & Gold Bugs beat down BIG. All others down.
Dollar down vs. Yen & flat vs Euro, XAU & gold down BIG 3.3% @ 551, XOI & crude down 3% @ 63.09, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERSION bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.66%; 10 yr @ 4.57; 5 yr @ 4.52; 2yr @ 4.60; 6mo @ 4.65; 6mo & 2 yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 8: EIA Inventories; Feb 9: Initial Claims, Wholesale Inventories; Feb 10: Trade Balance, Treasury Budget.
Reporting Wen: Pepsi, Prudential
Yesterday: "The major offender NDX hit his 11/17/05 low of 1657 today... we watch intently to see if he catches support or heads further south to violate the 1633 low." Today's low of 1644 brings NDX closer to 1630 range.
"On Wend, Thurs we expect indirect bidders (foreign central banks) to step up on bonds during the auctions."
Today's $21B 3 yr auction had a meager 22% indirect bidder participation. However, the 3 year is not a popular maturity, neither short nor long enough.
Tomorrows 10yr & Thurs 30yr should see a step up of FCB participation. And we should get a PPT buoyed bounce, watch afterhours volume and activity for clues.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2245; NDX 1650
Volume:
NYSE +402M -1.2B Total 1.6B Hi 46 Lo 25
NAZ +829M -1.2B Total 2.0B Hi 54 Lo 21
AMEX +8M -77M Total 88M Hi 27 Lo 11
BBOTC +619M -3.5B Total 4.4B Hi 162 Lo 105
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, we are sneaking one in today, but tomorrow we are probably MIA.
Disney and Coca Cola beat expectations. Toll Brothers gave lowered guidance, 29% reduction in homes built, homebuilders were brutalized. GM cut its dividend 50%,
A major pull back day on profit taking for commodities, steel, oil and especially gold with the largest single day fall in 13 years.
Todays action was sparked by a massive Japanese selloff identical to the one in December. As the underlying commodity goes, so go the equities; Gold Bugs -8%; XAU -7%, XOI -3.4%.
Consumer resilience shown in Redbook Sales report as major retailers +3.3% YOY for the week ended Feb. 4. and Consumer Credit +3.3B vs prior -0.6B.
Recent DJIA History: 20 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 19 weeks +148, 18 weeks -281, 17 weeks -6, 16 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 15 weeks recovery begins +186, 14 weeks +128, 13 weeks +154, 12 weeks +79, 11 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
10 weeks -53, 9 weeks -99, 8 weeks +99, 7 weeks +8. 6 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 5 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 4 weeks +0, 3 weeks -292, 2 weeks +240, 1 week -113. 5 week gain +75.
Today, a broadbased slapdown, DJIA -49 on slightly less volume with mediocre internals. This week DJIA -44, over the last 20 weeks DJIA +46.
DJUA, DJTA, SP500, XOI, XAU, MID, RUT & NYSE beat down. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Sectors: Semis, Commodity, Oil, Natural Gas, Transports, Utilities & Gold Bugs beat down BIG. All others down.
Dollar down vs. Yen & flat vs Euro, XAU & gold down BIG 3.3% @ 551, XOI & crude down 3% @ 63.09, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERSION bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.66%; 10 yr @ 4.57; 5 yr @ 4.52; 2yr @ 4.60; 6mo @ 4.65; 6mo & 2 yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 8: EIA Inventories; Feb 9: Initial Claims, Wholesale Inventories; Feb 10: Trade Balance, Treasury Budget.
Reporting Wen: Pepsi, Prudential
Yesterday: "The major offender NDX hit his 11/17/05 low of 1657 today... we watch intently to see if he catches support or heads further south to violate the 1633 low." Today's low of 1644 brings NDX closer to 1630 range.
"On Wend, Thurs we expect indirect bidders (foreign central banks) to step up on bonds during the auctions."
Today's $21B 3 yr auction had a meager 22% indirect bidder participation. However, the 3 year is not a popular maturity, neither short nor long enough.
Tomorrows 10yr & Thurs 30yr should see a step up of FCB participation. And we should get a PPT buoyed bounce, watch afterhours volume and activity for clues.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Comments