Market Soapbox 03/14/06
Resistance: DJIA 11170; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1700
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1635
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead and we are almost back in the saddle. Current Account -$224.9B vs prior -$185.4, can you say a hollowed out non durable economy? I can.
Feb Retail Sales -1.3% vs prior +2.3%. Inside the number: Ex-autos, retail sales -0.4% vs prior +2.6%. Can you say consumer pullback? I can.
Jan. Business Inventories +0.4% vs prior +0.8%; showing a draw down. Inside the number: inventories to sales ratio at 1.24, a new low.
Retail inventories rose +0.5%, but sales rose +2.9%. I can't wait to see Feb numbers that coincide with todays horrible retail sales numbers. Ouch.
Yield curve INVERSION EXIT bonds up BIG with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.70%; 10 yr @ 4.69; 5 yr @ 4.67; 2yr @ 4.64; 2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07.
Recent DJIA History: 25 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 24 weeks +148, 23 weeks -281, 22 weeks -6, 21 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 20 weeks recovery begins +186, 19 weeks +128, 18 weeks +154, 17 weeks +79, 16 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
15 weeks -53, 14 weeks -99, 13 weeks +99, 12 weeks +8. 11 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 10 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 9 weeks +0, 8 weeks -292, 7 weeks +240, 6 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 5 weeks DJIA +125, 4 weeks DJIA +196, 3 weeks DJIA -52. 2 weeks DJIA +6. Last week DJIA +61, (5 week gain +336),
Mon. DJIA +0 in a flat tepid low volume day compared to Fridays bounce. Today, a broadbased bounce with all sectors up nicely excepting biotech. DJIA +75 on slightly higher volume with nice internals. This week DJIA +75, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +501.
NDX, NAZ, NYSE, SOX, XAU, XOI, MID & RUT up nicely. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down off an all time high, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Dollar down vs. Euro 1.2093& vs.Yen 115.87, XAU & gold up @ 553, XOI & crude up 2.1% @ 63.10, CRB commodities up @ 326.97. Gasoline +7% & Natural Gas +2.3%.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 15 Export & Import Prices, NY Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, EIA Crude, Fed Beige Book;
Mar 16 Building Permits, Core CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Mar 17 Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment.
From Friday: "the stock market seems to have a false sense of security, which led to a broadbased bounce. Options expire on Friday, we sense more downside coming."
Despite the BOJ's announcement and the bond markets initial reaction, equities & bonds are flying in the face of "tame" inflation and energy passthrough. Sounds irrational does'nt it?
Friday, The NDX touched 1634 and has bounced up, keep your eye on that support level. Despite todays bounce, PG down 2.5% along with GM and the Bulletin Board took a pounding 5 to 1 declining. Seems like a flight to safety.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1635
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead and we are almost back in the saddle. Current Account -$224.9B vs prior -$185.4, can you say a hollowed out non durable economy? I can.
Feb Retail Sales -1.3% vs prior +2.3%. Inside the number: Ex-autos, retail sales -0.4% vs prior +2.6%. Can you say consumer pullback? I can.
Jan. Business Inventories +0.4% vs prior +0.8%; showing a draw down. Inside the number: inventories to sales ratio at 1.24, a new low.
Retail inventories rose +0.5%, but sales rose +2.9%. I can't wait to see Feb numbers that coincide with todays horrible retail sales numbers. Ouch.
Yield curve INVERSION EXIT bonds up BIG with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.70%; 10 yr @ 4.69; 5 yr @ 4.67; 2yr @ 4.64; 2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07.
Recent DJIA History: 25 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 24 weeks +148, 23 weeks -281, 22 weeks -6, 21 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 20 weeks recovery begins +186, 19 weeks +128, 18 weeks +154, 17 weeks +79, 16 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
15 weeks -53, 14 weeks -99, 13 weeks +99, 12 weeks +8. 11 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 10 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 9 weeks +0, 8 weeks -292, 7 weeks +240, 6 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 5 weeks DJIA +125, 4 weeks DJIA +196, 3 weeks DJIA -52. 2 weeks DJIA +6. Last week DJIA +61, (5 week gain +336),
Mon. DJIA +0 in a flat tepid low volume day compared to Fridays bounce. Today, a broadbased bounce with all sectors up nicely excepting biotech. DJIA +75 on slightly higher volume with nice internals. This week DJIA +75, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +501.
NDX, NAZ, NYSE, SOX, XAU, XOI, MID & RUT up nicely. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down off an all time high, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Dollar down vs. Euro 1.2093& vs.Yen 115.87, XAU & gold up @ 553, XOI & crude up 2.1% @ 63.10, CRB commodities up @ 326.97. Gasoline +7% & Natural Gas +2.3%.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 15 Export & Import Prices, NY Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, EIA Crude, Fed Beige Book;
Mar 16 Building Permits, Core CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Mar 17 Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment.
From Friday: "the stock market seems to have a false sense of security, which led to a broadbased bounce. Options expire on Friday, we sense more downside coming."
Despite the BOJ's announcement and the bond markets initial reaction, equities & bonds are flying in the face of "tame" inflation and energy passthrough. Sounds irrational does'nt it?
Friday, The NDX touched 1634 and has bounced up, keep your eye on that support level. Despite todays bounce, PG down 2.5% along with GM and the Bulletin Board took a pounding 5 to 1 declining. Seems like a flight to safety.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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