Market Soapbox 03/22/06
Resistance: DJIA 11325; SP500 1310; Nasdaq 2320; NDX 1710
Support: DJIA 10950; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1635
Called into action again. We will be scarce this week, but will endeavour to report.
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. EIA Inventory crude -1310K vs prior +4836K, breaking the trend with an unexpected draw vs build, oil prices up slightly on the news.
YIELD CURVE INVERSION, Bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.72%; 10 yr @ 4.70; 5 yr @ 4.69; 2yr @ 4.74; 6 mo @ 4.80.
2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07. 2 yr over 10 yr redux since 03/20; 2yr over 30 yr redux since 03/21.
Recent DJIA History: 26 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 25 weeks +148, 24 weeks -281, 23 weeks -6, 22 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486).
21 weeks recovery begins +186, 20 weeks +128, 19 weeks +154, 18 weeks +79, 17 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712). 16 weeks -53, 15 weeks -99, 14 weeks +99, 13 weeks +8. 12 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213).
11 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 10 weeks +0, 9 weeks -292, 8 weeks +240, 7 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 6 weeks +125, 5 weeks +196, 4 weeks -52. 3 weeks +6. 2 weeks +61, (5 week gain +336. Last week +159.
Mon DJIA -5 in a split tape day. Tues, down then up then way down, DJIA -40 bleeding into the close on lower volume with ugly internals.
Today, DJIA +82 bouncing back on steady volume with pretty internals. This week DJIA +37, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +622.
DJTA, NYSE, MID, RUT, XOI up nicely. XAU down. SOX flat. DAX, CAC, FTSE all up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down. All sectors up nicely except semis.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.2150 & vs.Yen 115.77, XAU up & gold down @ 551.7, XOI & crude up @ 60.57, CRB commodities index down @ 320.27.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 23 Initial Claims, Existing Home Sales; Mar 24 Durable Orders, New Home Sales.
Mon & Tues new multi year or all time highs: SP500, DJIA, MID, RUT & NAZ. Today, a rebound in the market and crude and the mantra is onward and upward. The question is how far?
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10950; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1635
Called into action again. We will be scarce this week, but will endeavour to report.
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. EIA Inventory crude -1310K vs prior +4836K, breaking the trend with an unexpected draw vs build, oil prices up slightly on the news.
YIELD CURVE INVERSION, Bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.72%; 10 yr @ 4.70; 5 yr @ 4.69; 2yr @ 4.74; 6 mo @ 4.80.
2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07. 2 yr over 10 yr redux since 03/20; 2yr over 30 yr redux since 03/21.
Recent DJIA History: 26 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 25 weeks +148, 24 weeks -281, 23 weeks -6, 22 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486).
21 weeks recovery begins +186, 20 weeks +128, 19 weeks +154, 18 weeks +79, 17 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712). 16 weeks -53, 15 weeks -99, 14 weeks +99, 13 weeks +8. 12 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213).
11 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 10 weeks +0, 9 weeks -292, 8 weeks +240, 7 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 6 weeks +125, 5 weeks +196, 4 weeks -52. 3 weeks +6. 2 weeks +61, (5 week gain +336. Last week +159.
Mon DJIA -5 in a split tape day. Tues, down then up then way down, DJIA -40 bleeding into the close on lower volume with ugly internals.
Today, DJIA +82 bouncing back on steady volume with pretty internals. This week DJIA +37, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +622.
DJTA, NYSE, MID, RUT, XOI up nicely. XAU down. SOX flat. DAX, CAC, FTSE all up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down. All sectors up nicely except semis.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.2150 & vs.Yen 115.77, XAU up & gold down @ 551.7, XOI & crude up @ 60.57, CRB commodities index down @ 320.27.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 23 Initial Claims, Existing Home Sales; Mar 24 Durable Orders, New Home Sales.
Mon & Tues new multi year or all time highs: SP500, DJIA, MID, RUT & NAZ. Today, a rebound in the market and crude and the mantra is onward and upward. The question is how far?
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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