Market Observations 06/05/06

Equities and bonds did not react well to Benny & the Feds inflation comments. Is there a pause in the cards? Even a pause may not save this market.

As previously mentioned in these pages, a FED pause will signal another dollar and bond selloff, thus RAISING high end rates while the Fed pauses at the low end. Dammed if they do and dammed if they don't....

Thurs 10 year note auction may drain the equities market of needed liquidity. The PPT is clinging by its proverbial teeth to keep the 10 year under 5%, they have to let something else (equities or commodities or both) fall to do so.

As predicted, since 05/19 a sideways flagwaving pattern has emerged. Today's plunge brings the major indices back down to critical support at 200DMA. NDX, NAZ & SOX are already sitting on 400DMA. Should we breech, look out below.

We continue to watch for June 11 - 29th as a range for a major market inflection. If the rest of the majors breech 200DMA this week, we look towards Mon June 12 or Thurs June 22 as a potential BLACK day. Lets watch closely and see.

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