Economic Reports & Observations 09/18/06

In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.

Ford Motor last 2 days -16%. Hedge fund Amaranth Advisors suffered a huge loss on its natural gas positions. Up close to 30% entering September, now understood to be down 35% YTD. So far, the fund has been able to meet all of its margin calls.

Current Account report, a deficit of $218.4 B vs prior $213.2 B. In July foreigners purchased $32.9B, the lowest total since May 2005

Sept NAHB's index of homebuilder confidence slipped for the eighth consecutive month to a reading of 30 vs prior 33, which marked a 15-year low.

I agree with
Flecks latest. This market is giving off false positive signals and we should beware as it has no reason to rally and we are very close to the recent May peak.

Recent data from a bottoms up standpoint have been on the weak side, as have the top down macro data. And all bad news has been ignored in spades recently. We believe the upslope sideways flagwaving chop will end around 10/11.

Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!

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