Market Soapbox & Observations Week Ending 10/06/06
Resistance: DJIA 11900; SP500 1360; Nasdaq 2350; NDX 1690
Support: DJIA 10250, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.83%; 10 yr @ 4.69; 5 yr @ 4.64; 2yr @ 4.74; 6 mo @ 5.04. The 10 yr bounced off a 7 month low.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, a broadbased fall with a deceiving DJIA -9, on lower volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XAU & DJUA.
TUE, a broadbased fall then large cap bounce DJIA +57 on higher but average volume with midline internals. MID, RUT, SOXX, XAU & XOI all DOWN, oil fell under $59, market closed at all time high 11,727.
WEN, broadbased upsurge DJIA +123 on average volume with nice internals. Gold down to $567, market headed for all time intraday high of 11908.
THU, new all time intraday high of 11927, DJIA +16 on lower, but average volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJUA & SOXX, crude back over $60 on OPEC hint of 1MB per day production cut.
FRI, a broadbased fall after hitting the high. DJIA -16 on lower volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept AMEX & XOI. This week DJIA +171, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1190.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.26040 & DOWN vs. Yen 118.99, XAU 124.20 & gold DOWN @ 576.8, XOI 1065.59 & crude DOWN @ $59.91, CRB commodities index DOWN @ 300.20.
All time highs 05/05/06 RUT; 05/08/06 MID; 05/09/06 NYSE; 05/10/06 DJTA; 05/11/06 XAU;
08/09/06 XOI; 09/01/06 DJUA; 10/05/06 DJIA. 6 year highs 10/05/06 OEX, SP500 & TMWX.
Since the May correction, the RUT, MID, DJTA & XAU retracement is somewhat limp compared to the DJIA, OEX, TMWS & SP500 rise.
Questions: Is there enough gas in the tank to get those indices back up past their May highs?
Is the DJIA, OEX, SP500 & TMWX rise due to a "flight to safety" in large caps?
Or are the RUT, MID, DJTA & XAU telegraphing that the XOI, DJUA & DJIA are just latecomers and the party is almost over?
We are on the road next two weeks, economic reports may be scarce be we will endeavor to keep up with Soapbox & the NFL.
Support: DJIA 10250, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.83%; 10 yr @ 4.69; 5 yr @ 4.64; 2yr @ 4.74; 6 mo @ 5.04. The 10 yr bounced off a 7 month low.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, a broadbased fall with a deceiving DJIA -9, on lower volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XAU & DJUA.
TUE, a broadbased fall then large cap bounce DJIA +57 on higher but average volume with midline internals. MID, RUT, SOXX, XAU & XOI all DOWN, oil fell under $59, market closed at all time high 11,727.
WEN, broadbased upsurge DJIA +123 on average volume with nice internals. Gold down to $567, market headed for all time intraday high of 11908.
THU, new all time intraday high of 11927, DJIA +16 on lower, but average volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJUA & SOXX, crude back over $60 on OPEC hint of 1MB per day production cut.
FRI, a broadbased fall after hitting the high. DJIA -16 on lower volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept AMEX & XOI. This week DJIA +171, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1190.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.26040 & DOWN vs. Yen 118.99, XAU 124.20 & gold DOWN @ 576.8, XOI 1065.59 & crude DOWN @ $59.91, CRB commodities index DOWN @ 300.20.
All time highs 05/05/06 RUT; 05/08/06 MID; 05/09/06 NYSE; 05/10/06 DJTA; 05/11/06 XAU;
08/09/06 XOI; 09/01/06 DJUA; 10/05/06 DJIA. 6 year highs 10/05/06 OEX, SP500 & TMWX.
Since the May correction, the RUT, MID, DJTA & XAU retracement is somewhat limp compared to the DJIA, OEX, TMWS & SP500 rise.
Questions: Is there enough gas in the tank to get those indices back up past their May highs?
Is the DJIA, OEX, SP500 & TMWX rise due to a "flight to safety" in large caps?
Or are the RUT, MID, DJTA & XAU telegraphing that the XOI, DJUA & DJIA are just latecomers and the party is almost over?
We are on the road next two weeks, economic reports may be scarce be we will endeavor to keep up with Soapbox & the NFL.
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