Market Observations 02/28/07

Everybody got Wang-Chunged yesterday, but... 'It happened, but it didn't really happen.'

The 3PM EST drop in the Dow accelerated and in a few moments was down 546.20 points because of a price tabulation error at Dow Jones, which calculates the average in real-time and transmits the figure to market-data providers.

Dow Jones Indexes today explained that a system problem beginning at 1:50 pm yesterday amid unusually heavy volume caused the 70-minute lag in correctly calculating the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the subsequent downward spike in the reported index value when the problem was corrected at 3:00 pm.



FYI: Down volume exceeded up volume on the NYSE by 70 to 1... 14 times the market has fallen 3% on a single day in February since the 1880s.

With the exception of 1898 and 1933, each time the Dow Jones Industrials were higher a month later... in the most recent instances, 1938 and 1946, the Dow was 8.2% and 7.1% higher a month later.

Month end portfolio adjustments with managers scooping up "bargains" should cause a bounce today... afterwards??

Since late May, there has been a safety net under the market, in the form of an inordinate number of puts vs calls, with the exception of Jan this year.

This month is no exception, and the inordinate number of puts were handsomely rewarded yesterday.

Question, will the puts need to short cover during March 16 options expiration week? Watch the open interest, that should tell all.

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