Market Soapbox Week Ending 02/09/07
MON, sideways, split tape, DJIA +8 on lower volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept DJUA, SOXX, XAU. Bonds up 10 yr 4.81, $ down vs 120.385y & up vs 1.2926E, WTI crude down $58.80, gold up $653.10.
TUE, sideways, split tape, DJIA +5 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJTA, NDX, SOXX, XOI. Bonds up BIG 10yr 4.77, $ down vs 120.11y & vs 1.2980E, WTI crude up $59.07, gold up $658.60
WEN, wavy gravy, DJIA FLAT on average volume and midlin internals. All UP cept XAU, XOI . Bonds up 10 yr 4.75, $ up vs 120.71y & down vs 1.3005E, gold down $656.60, WTI crude down 2% 57.80. Huge aftermarket volume surge.
THU, early 70+ pt plunge then bounce into close, DJIA -29 on average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept DJUA, MID, RUT, XAU, XOI. Bonds up 10 yr 4.73, $ up vs 121.235y & down vs 1.3032E, gold up $664, WTI crude up 3% $60.30.
FRI, up then 100 pt fall, DJIA -57 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJUA. Bonds down 10yr 4.78, $ up vs 121.725y & vs 1.3008E, WTI crude up $59.72, gold up 1.3% $671.50.
This week, DJIA -73, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1949. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3008 & up vs. Yen 121.725, XAU up 141.67 & gold up 671.50, XOI down 1163.36 & WTI crude up $59.72, CRB commodities index up 305.19
MAJOR YIELD CURVE INVERSION: This week bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.86%; 10 yr @ 4.78; 5 yr @ 4.77; 2yr @ 4.90; 6 mo @ 5.15.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 12700; SP500 1450; Nasdaq 2500; NDX 1820
Support: DJIA 12550, SP500 1430, Nasdaq 2460; NDX 1778
Dollar index still waving about 85, crude bounced from $50 to $60, gold rising $640 to $670 as bonds rebound lowering rate 4bps 10 yr 4.78. VIX range bound 10 to 11, volatility still low.
Again, new mulit year and all time highs this week. SP500 seems headed for 1520, RUT for 830, does it have the gas after a nice fall back from 1451 to 1437 today.
Perhaps this gets the juices flowing for the next surge to 1465? A fall below 1422 would signify a market change.
TUE, sideways, split tape, DJIA +5 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJTA, NDX, SOXX, XOI. Bonds up BIG 10yr 4.77, $ down vs 120.11y & vs 1.2980E, WTI crude up $59.07, gold up $658.60
WEN, wavy gravy, DJIA FLAT on average volume and midlin internals. All UP cept XAU, XOI . Bonds up 10 yr 4.75, $ up vs 120.71y & down vs 1.3005E, gold down $656.60, WTI crude down 2% 57.80. Huge aftermarket volume surge.
THU, early 70+ pt plunge then bounce into close, DJIA -29 on average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept DJUA, MID, RUT, XAU, XOI. Bonds up 10 yr 4.73, $ up vs 121.235y & down vs 1.3032E, gold up $664, WTI crude up 3% $60.30.
FRI, up then 100 pt fall, DJIA -57 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJUA. Bonds down 10yr 4.78, $ up vs 121.725y & vs 1.3008E, WTI crude up $59.72, gold up 1.3% $671.50.
This week, DJIA -73, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1949. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3008 & up vs. Yen 121.725, XAU up 141.67 & gold up 671.50, XOI down 1163.36 & WTI crude up $59.72, CRB commodities index up 305.19
MAJOR YIELD CURVE INVERSION: This week bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.86%; 10 yr @ 4.78; 5 yr @ 4.77; 2yr @ 4.90; 6 mo @ 5.15.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 12700; SP500 1450; Nasdaq 2500; NDX 1820
Support: DJIA 12550, SP500 1430, Nasdaq 2460; NDX 1778
Dollar index still waving about 85, crude bounced from $50 to $60, gold rising $640 to $670 as bonds rebound lowering rate 4bps 10 yr 4.78. VIX range bound 10 to 11, volatility still low.
Again, new mulit year and all time highs this week. SP500 seems headed for 1520, RUT for 830, does it have the gas after a nice fall back from 1451 to 1437 today.
Perhaps this gets the juices flowing for the next surge to 1465? A fall below 1422 would signify a market change.
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