Economic Reports 03/26/07
Last Friday, the Realtors reported that sales of existing U.S. homes rose about 4%... I am becoming very dubious of the realtors numbers which do not accurately reflect cancellations, nor for sale by owner.
Today, the housing train wreck continues as new home sales are at a 7 year low, while inventory has balloned to a 16 year high. The DJIA dropped 100 pts and the SP500 fell 13 pts on the news...
New Home Sales Feb down 34K to 848K vs prior revised down 882K Full Data
Inside the number: Sales -3.9% this month and at a 7 year low. YoY -18.3%. Not seasonally adjusted: YTD % change -17.9%; NE -22.2%, MW-21.5%, SO-12.1%, WE -25.4%
Inventory rising +1.5% to a 16 year high. Months supply inventory rising 11% to 8.1 months from 7.3, YoY +26.6%. Median months for sale rising from 4.8 to 5.2.
Completed but unsold homes rose to 179,000 from 177,000, up 43% from a year earlier. 6 month sales average is now down 22%.
Sales are reported when a contract is signed, not at the closing of the sale. Builders have reported a large increase in cancellations in recent months.
Since cancellations are not reflected in the government data, reported sales are likely overstated.
And, inventories are probably understated, because they don't include homes thrown back on the market due to buyer cancellations, nor do they include FSBO's.
Today, the housing train wreck continues as new home sales are at a 7 year low, while inventory has balloned to a 16 year high. The DJIA dropped 100 pts and the SP500 fell 13 pts on the news...
New Home Sales Feb down 34K to 848K vs prior revised down 882K Full Data
Inside the number: Sales -3.9% this month and at a 7 year low. YoY -18.3%. Not seasonally adjusted: YTD % change -17.9%; NE -22.2%, MW-21.5%, SO-12.1%, WE -25.4%
Inventory rising +1.5% to a 16 year high. Months supply inventory rising 11% to 8.1 months from 7.3, YoY +26.6%. Median months for sale rising from 4.8 to 5.2.
Completed but unsold homes rose to 179,000 from 177,000, up 43% from a year earlier. 6 month sales average is now down 22%.
Sales are reported when a contract is signed, not at the closing of the sale. Builders have reported a large increase in cancellations in recent months.
Since cancellations are not reflected in the government data, reported sales are likely overstated.
And, inventories are probably understated, because they don't include homes thrown back on the market due to buyer cancellations, nor do they include FSBO's.
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