Economic Reports 05/16/07
Summary: Industrial production and capacity utilization headline number up...
under the sheets a seasonally adjusted oscillating downtrend with a major sequential decline back to Jan levels.
Housing starts headline number up, serving up a smiling baby... but under the sheets PU mui cocka....
Industrial Production Apr +0.7% vs prior -0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: March revised down from -0.2 to -0.3. Rise on utilities production +3.5% and motor vehicle output +3.3%. Industrial production ex auto +0.6% and Yoy +1.9%.
Capacity Utilization Apr up to 81.6 vs prior 81.2%. March revised down from 81.4. Rise on utilities utilization; natural gas +11%; electric +2%.
Curiously enough, the seasonally adjusted rise was on "increased" utilities and truck production... sequential Autos -4%; Trucks -13.1%.
and unadjusted residential utiliies output has plunged sequentially since Jan 142.2; Feb 141.5; Mar 112.5, Apr 90.5.
On the surface the seasonally adjusted numbers are oscillating yet, downtrending back to Jan levels. Worse still, some select unadjusted sequential numbers...
Final products -2.1%; Crude -0.7%; Semi Finished -2.5%; Finished -1%. Ag. construction & mining machinery -6.5%.
Consumer goods -2.8%, durable -2%, non durable -3%; durable materials -3.5%; home electronics -9.8% ;semiconductors -68.4%.
Housing Starts Apr +2.5% to 1.53M vs prior 1.518M Full Report
Inside the number: A rise in starts. Well, if you already exercised the land option and it was already permitted, you start it.
How bad is it? Yoy completions in the Midwest -39%... and that's not all folks... the REAL tell of future development:
Building Permits Apr -8.9% to 1.429M vs prior 1.564M.
The largest % decline in 17 years, and the lowest number since June 1997, a ten year low.
Yoy: starts down 16%; completions down 26%; permits down 28%.
Multi unit permits -16% to 366K, more important sequentially SFR permits -6% to 1.06M, hitting another 10 year low.
Its a dead man walking... YTD Yoy permits -26.8%; SFR permits -29.4%; completions -21.5%; SFR completions -23.6%; starts -26.2%, SFR starts -27.8%.
More bad news... completions and starts will continue to fall until they hit the permits level.
The Nattering One has mused before... riddle me this Batman... a 33% reduction means 600,000 less new homes being built this year.
What will that do to an emasculated non durable economy that for 5 years has based 60% of its "documented" new jobs (40% housing, 20% service) on the housing sector?
Leering aft at the stern of the sinking ship... My those are big pearly whites you have! "You're gonna need a bigger boat." - Police Cheif Martin Brody - Jaws
under the sheets a seasonally adjusted oscillating downtrend with a major sequential decline back to Jan levels.
Housing starts headline number up, serving up a smiling baby... but under the sheets PU mui cocka....
Industrial Production Apr +0.7% vs prior -0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: March revised down from -0.2 to -0.3. Rise on utilities production +3.5% and motor vehicle output +3.3%. Industrial production ex auto +0.6% and Yoy +1.9%.
Capacity Utilization Apr up to 81.6 vs prior 81.2%. March revised down from 81.4. Rise on utilities utilization; natural gas +11%; electric +2%.
Curiously enough, the seasonally adjusted rise was on "increased" utilities and truck production... sequential Autos -4%; Trucks -13.1%.
and unadjusted residential utiliies output has plunged sequentially since Jan 142.2; Feb 141.5; Mar 112.5, Apr 90.5.
On the surface the seasonally adjusted numbers are oscillating yet, downtrending back to Jan levels. Worse still, some select unadjusted sequential numbers...
Final products -2.1%; Crude -0.7%; Semi Finished -2.5%; Finished -1%. Ag. construction & mining machinery -6.5%.
Consumer goods -2.8%, durable -2%, non durable -3%; durable materials -3.5%; home electronics -9.8% ;semiconductors -68.4%.
Housing Starts Apr +2.5% to 1.53M vs prior 1.518M Full Report
Inside the number: A rise in starts. Well, if you already exercised the land option and it was already permitted, you start it.
How bad is it? Yoy completions in the Midwest -39%... and that's not all folks... the REAL tell of future development:
Building Permits Apr -8.9% to 1.429M vs prior 1.564M.
The largest % decline in 17 years, and the lowest number since June 1997, a ten year low.
Yoy: starts down 16%; completions down 26%; permits down 28%.
Multi unit permits -16% to 366K, more important sequentially SFR permits -6% to 1.06M, hitting another 10 year low.
Its a dead man walking... YTD Yoy permits -26.8%; SFR permits -29.4%; completions -21.5%; SFR completions -23.6%; starts -26.2%, SFR starts -27.8%.
More bad news... completions and starts will continue to fall until they hit the permits level.
The Nattering One has mused before... riddle me this Batman... a 33% reduction means 600,000 less new homes being built this year.
What will that do to an emasculated non durable economy that for 5 years has based 60% of its "documented" new jobs (40% housing, 20% service) on the housing sector?
Leering aft at the stern of the sinking ship... My those are big pearly whites you have! "You're gonna need a bigger boat." - Police Cheif Martin Brody - Jaws
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