FOMC Minutes May 2007
Construction layoff latency: "several participants observed that the recent moderation in economic growth had been concentrated in the construction sector, but that measured employment in construction had not yet declined by a corresponding amount.
This suggested that increases in overall employment in coming quarters may possibly be held down by notable declines in construction employment as the adjustment of the labor force in that sector played out."
This assumes that there will be increases, rather than decreases as the service sector layoffs commence.
The Malthusian Impasse: "A slowing in employment could then occur in conjunction with a strengthening in productivity growth.
Alternatively, some of the recent weakness in measured productivity growth could reflect a decline in the underlying trend in productivity and so might persist."
Much Longer Than Anyone Expects: "the correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year--somewhat longer than previously expected."
John Q getting squeezed: "Participants remained concerned that the housing market correction could have a more pronounced impact on consumer spending than currently expected, especially if house prices were to decline significantly."
The economy slowing to a crawl: "The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed in February, reflecting a steep drop in imports, which more than offset a sizable decline in exports...
imports of industrial supplies, capital goods, and automotive parts fell. The lion's share of the February decline in exports was of capital goods. Smaller decreases occurred in exports of industrial supplies, consumer goods, and services."
Yet, optimism springs eternal despite a well grounded staff: "many participants commented that their view of potential output growth was somewhat more optimistic than that of the staff."
This suggested that increases in overall employment in coming quarters may possibly be held down by notable declines in construction employment as the adjustment of the labor force in that sector played out."
This assumes that there will be increases, rather than decreases as the service sector layoffs commence.
The Malthusian Impasse: "A slowing in employment could then occur in conjunction with a strengthening in productivity growth.
Alternatively, some of the recent weakness in measured productivity growth could reflect a decline in the underlying trend in productivity and so might persist."
Much Longer Than Anyone Expects: "the correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year--somewhat longer than previously expected."
John Q getting squeezed: "Participants remained concerned that the housing market correction could have a more pronounced impact on consumer spending than currently expected, especially if house prices were to decline significantly."
The economy slowing to a crawl: "The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed in February, reflecting a steep drop in imports, which more than offset a sizable decline in exports...
imports of industrial supplies, capital goods, and automotive parts fell. The lion's share of the February decline in exports was of capital goods. Smaller decreases occurred in exports of industrial supplies, consumer goods, and services."
Yet, optimism springs eternal despite a well grounded staff: "many participants commented that their view of potential output growth was somewhat more optimistic than that of the staff."
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