Market Soapbox 06/12/07
TUE, broadbased triple digit consolidation, DJIA -130 on average volume with disasterous internals. All DOWN,
Bonds beat down like cheap congas 10 yr yield +16 bps 5.30, $ up vs 1.3303E & down vs 121.605Y, WTI crude down $65.16, gold down $651
DJIA up 37 for 53; 48 record closes since Oct.; 26 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 44 for 64.
Over the last 3 weeks, some mighty magnetic numbers... SOXX 490-500, RUT 835, NDX 1905, MID 900 and SP500 1505. They still hold this market captive...
Texas Instruments narrowing their Q2 outlook... Intel rumored to be cutting high end processor prices by 50% to regain market share...
Greenspun speaks: Statement of the Year... "Some of these price/earnings ratios are discounting nirvana."
"There's no evidence at this stage that China is selling off securities," Greenspan said the reason such a withdrawal was unlikely was that China would not have anyone to sell the securities to (except us.)
Referring to historically low premiums on emerging-market debt and rising interest rates...
"it ain't going to continue that way. And indeed, all the spreads you are looking at, including your spreads relative to the 10-year are going to start to open up and the 10-year is going to be moving as well."
Yesterday: "Looking at the DJUA since 05/21, and SOXX since 05/09, a case could be made for further downside. Although Asian & Euro markets have rebounded, there is true danger with bonds getting clubbed."
Bonds got whupped today with the 10 year bond jumping 16 bps, slicing through 5.25 and hitting a 5 year high at 5.30%. DJIA was up 25 pts then tanked into the close 150 points. SP500 falling from 1511 to 1493.
Is it a dead cat? Oh no, at this point its initial "collateral" damage with more mortgage hedges yet to unwind. The painful reality is, much like the housing market and US economy, its a dead man walking.
We sense, as long as bonds continue to cave, so will everything else, and we mean everything as in globally. Read today's other post "Double Dealing or Ending?" for further motives and ideas.
The emerging pattern is not pretty and if 1488 is breeched on a closing basis with authority, or the 10 yr breaks 5.50, look out because as Jaws Amity Police Chief Martin Brody said: "Your going to need a bigger boat."
The NY Fed better open up both barrels as today's $6 Billion bb shot and the last several days $20 Billion is not enough, like we said $25 or $30 Billion in one day and perhaps $60 Billion over 5 days may be in order.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
Bonds beat down like cheap congas 10 yr yield +16 bps 5.30, $ up vs 1.3303E & down vs 121.605Y, WTI crude down $65.16, gold down $651
DJIA up 37 for 53; 48 record closes since Oct.; 26 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 44 for 64.
Over the last 3 weeks, some mighty magnetic numbers... SOXX 490-500, RUT 835, NDX 1905, MID 900 and SP500 1505. They still hold this market captive...
Texas Instruments narrowing their Q2 outlook... Intel rumored to be cutting high end processor prices by 50% to regain market share...
Greenspun speaks: Statement of the Year... "Some of these price/earnings ratios are discounting nirvana."
"There's no evidence at this stage that China is selling off securities," Greenspan said the reason such a withdrawal was unlikely was that China would not have anyone to sell the securities to (except us.)
Referring to historically low premiums on emerging-market debt and rising interest rates...
"it ain't going to continue that way. And indeed, all the spreads you are looking at, including your spreads relative to the 10-year are going to start to open up and the 10-year is going to be moving as well."
Yesterday: "Looking at the DJUA since 05/21, and SOXX since 05/09, a case could be made for further downside. Although Asian & Euro markets have rebounded, there is true danger with bonds getting clubbed."
Bonds got whupped today with the 10 year bond jumping 16 bps, slicing through 5.25 and hitting a 5 year high at 5.30%. DJIA was up 25 pts then tanked into the close 150 points. SP500 falling from 1511 to 1493.
Is it a dead cat? Oh no, at this point its initial "collateral" damage with more mortgage hedges yet to unwind. The painful reality is, much like the housing market and US economy, its a dead man walking.
We sense, as long as bonds continue to cave, so will everything else, and we mean everything as in globally. Read today's other post "Double Dealing or Ending?" for further motives and ideas.
The emerging pattern is not pretty and if 1488 is breeched on a closing basis with authority, or the 10 yr breaks 5.50, look out because as Jaws Amity Police Chief Martin Brody said: "Your going to need a bigger boat."
The NY Fed better open up both barrels as today's $6 Billion bb shot and the last several days $20 Billion is not enough, like we said $25 or $30 Billion in one day and perhaps $60 Billion over 5 days may be in order.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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