Economic Reports 07/31/07
Summary: Confidence rises on lower gasoline prices, not an increase in optimism.
PCE Inflation rising slowly with income, but spending is decelerating. Chicago PMI declining as production & orders "drop like a rock".
The housing debacle continues... private residential construction spending still plunging. Case Schiller Home Price Index shows largest decline in 7 years.
Consumer Confidence Jul 112.6 vs 105.3 Full Report
Inside the number: the highest since 09/11. Present Situation up to 139.2 vs 129.9; Expectations up to 94.8 vs 88.8.
"Consumers are more upbeat about short-term economic prospects, mainly the result of a decline in the number of pessimists, not an increase in the number of optimists."
Core PCE Inflation Index Jun +0.1% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Personal Income Jun +0.4% vs prior +0.4%; Personal Spending Jun +0.1% vs prior +0.6%.
Excepting services a deceleration in Current $ PCE: +0.1% vs prior +0.6%;
durable goods -1.6% vs prior +1.6%; non durable FLAT vs prior +1.4%; services +0.5% vs prior +0.1%
Good news... In chained 2000 dollars: Real Disposable Income +0.3% vs prior -0.1% & the bad news...
Excepting services a deceleration in Chained $ PCE: FLAT vs prior +0.2%;
durable goods -1.6% vs prior +1.7%; non durable goods FLAT vs prior +0.2%; services +0.2% vs prior -0.1%
Chicago PMI Jul 53.4 vs prior 60.2 Full Report
Inside the number: greater than 12 point decline, new orders down 53.4 vs 65.7; 2 months of contraction, production down 59.0 vs 66.5; dropping like a rock, order backlogs down 37.4 vs 50.8.
Inflation spreading, Prices paid 73.1 vs 68.1; good news? expanding 9 points, employment up 61.6 vs 52.7.
Construction Spending Jun -0.3% vs prior +1.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Private residential projects -0.7% the 16th consecutive decline; YOY -16.4%. New single family homes -1.4%; YOY -25.8%.
Case Schiller Home Price Index -2.8% Full Report
Inside the number: 18th consecutive decline and the biggest decline in the 7 year history of the 20 city index.
Home prices in 10 major U.S. cities have fallen 3.4% in the past year, the biggest decline since 1991.
Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets:
"Year-over-year price returns are continuing to either move deeper into negative territory or experience persistent diminishing returns."
PCE Inflation rising slowly with income, but spending is decelerating. Chicago PMI declining as production & orders "drop like a rock".
The housing debacle continues... private residential construction spending still plunging. Case Schiller Home Price Index shows largest decline in 7 years.
Consumer Confidence Jul 112.6 vs 105.3 Full Report
Inside the number: the highest since 09/11. Present Situation up to 139.2 vs 129.9; Expectations up to 94.8 vs 88.8.
"Consumers are more upbeat about short-term economic prospects, mainly the result of a decline in the number of pessimists, not an increase in the number of optimists."
Core PCE Inflation Index Jun +0.1% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Personal Income Jun +0.4% vs prior +0.4%; Personal Spending Jun +0.1% vs prior +0.6%.
Excepting services a deceleration in Current $ PCE: +0.1% vs prior +0.6%;
durable goods -1.6% vs prior +1.6%; non durable FLAT vs prior +1.4%; services +0.5% vs prior +0.1%
Good news... In chained 2000 dollars: Real Disposable Income +0.3% vs prior -0.1% & the bad news...
Excepting services a deceleration in Chained $ PCE: FLAT vs prior +0.2%;
durable goods -1.6% vs prior +1.7%; non durable goods FLAT vs prior +0.2%; services +0.2% vs prior -0.1%
Chicago PMI Jul 53.4 vs prior 60.2 Full Report
Inside the number: greater than 12 point decline, new orders down 53.4 vs 65.7; 2 months of contraction, production down 59.0 vs 66.5; dropping like a rock, order backlogs down 37.4 vs 50.8.
Inflation spreading, Prices paid 73.1 vs 68.1; good news? expanding 9 points, employment up 61.6 vs 52.7.
Construction Spending Jun -0.3% vs prior +1.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Private residential projects -0.7% the 16th consecutive decline; YOY -16.4%. New single family homes -1.4%; YOY -25.8%.
Case Schiller Home Price Index -2.8% Full Report
Inside the number: 18th consecutive decline and the biggest decline in the 7 year history of the 20 city index.
Home prices in 10 major U.S. cities have fallen 3.4% in the past year, the biggest decline since 1991.
Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets:
"Year-over-year price returns are continuing to either move deeper into negative territory or experience persistent diminishing returns."
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