Market Soapbox Week Ending 07/20/07
MON, split tape, DJIA +44 on lower volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, SOXX, XMI. Bonds up, 10 yr yield -6 bps 5.04, $ up vs 1.3781E & down vs 121.812Y, WTI crude up $74.15, gold down $664.5
TUE, DJIA +21 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJUA, SP500, XOI, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3bps 5.07, $ up vs 1.3781E & vs 122.38Y, WTI crude down $74.06, gold up $665.9
WEN, bounce down DJIA -53 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, DJUA, XMI, XAU, XOI. Bonds up10 yr yield -4bps 5.03, $ down vs 1.3804E & vs 121.88Y, WTI crude up $74.77, gold up $674.3.
THU, bounce up, DJIA +82 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept XOI. Bonds up 10 yr yield -1bps 5.02, $ up vs 122.065y & vs 1.3796E, gold up $678.1, WTI crude up 1% $75.92
FRI, down surge DJIA -149 on higher volume with ugly internals. All DOWN BIG cept XAU. Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -7bps 4.95, $ down vs 121.27y & vs 1.3827E, gold up 1% $684.70, WTI crude down $75.79
This week, DJIA -55, since 09/19/05 DJIA +3247. CRB commodities down 325.09 to 324.44
XAU up from 151.08 to 158.39 & gold up from $667.3 to $684.7. XOI down from 1514.99 to 1470.07 & WTI crude up from $74 to $75.79 an 11 month high.
Volatility VIX up 15.15 to 16.95. Dollar index down 80.58 to 80.26. $ down vs Yen 121.93 to 121.27 & vs Euro 1.3783 to 1.3827.
This week bonds up BIG 30yr -13bps; 10yr -15bps, 5yr -16bps, 2yr -16bps, 6mo +0bps. 30 yr @ 5.06%; 10 yr @ 4.95; 5 yr @ 4.84; 2yr @ 4.76; 6 mo @ 5.04.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - 06/07/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -06/07/07; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07.
6mo above 2 yr 06/25/07 - ??? above 5 yr 07/11/07 - ????
Resistance: DJIA 14025; SP500 1555; NAZ 2725; NDX 2045
Support: DJIA 13630; SP500 1525; NAZ 2645; NDX 1972
The Yuan or RMB is a proxy for the Yen, so expect a haircut in the carry trade...and the markets reaction was instant with a broadbased intraday plunge of 212 points during options expiration.
Last night the People's Bank of China ordered an increase of 0.27 bps in commercial banks' benchmark one-year deposit and lending rates.
That will take the one-year benchmark deposit rate to 3.33% from 3.06 %. The one-year lending rate will rise to 6.84 % from 6.57 %.
Caterpillar profit -21% on weak North American sales, blaming the housing debacle. Sonoco profit falling, Sandisk profit -71%, AMD posts loss, Microsoft matched, Google missed.
Today, $5B in Fed reanimation. Crude heading for $80, DJIA closed 13.85K, NDX fell to 2035. SP500 to 1534. SP500 still needs to close above 1550 2 days straight.
We reserve judgement on an overall change in market direction. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
TUE, DJIA +21 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJUA, SP500, XOI, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3bps 5.07, $ up vs 1.3781E & vs 122.38Y, WTI crude down $74.06, gold up $665.9
WEN, bounce down DJIA -53 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, DJUA, XMI, XAU, XOI. Bonds up10 yr yield -4bps 5.03, $ down vs 1.3804E & vs 121.88Y, WTI crude up $74.77, gold up $674.3.
THU, bounce up, DJIA +82 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept XOI. Bonds up 10 yr yield -1bps 5.02, $ up vs 122.065y & vs 1.3796E, gold up $678.1, WTI crude up 1% $75.92
FRI, down surge DJIA -149 on higher volume with ugly internals. All DOWN BIG cept XAU. Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -7bps 4.95, $ down vs 121.27y & vs 1.3827E, gold up 1% $684.70, WTI crude down $75.79
This week, DJIA -55, since 09/19/05 DJIA +3247. CRB commodities down 325.09 to 324.44
XAU up from 151.08 to 158.39 & gold up from $667.3 to $684.7. XOI down from 1514.99 to 1470.07 & WTI crude up from $74 to $75.79 an 11 month high.
Volatility VIX up 15.15 to 16.95. Dollar index down 80.58 to 80.26. $ down vs Yen 121.93 to 121.27 & vs Euro 1.3783 to 1.3827.
This week bonds up BIG 30yr -13bps; 10yr -15bps, 5yr -16bps, 2yr -16bps, 6mo +0bps. 30 yr @ 5.06%; 10 yr @ 4.95; 5 yr @ 4.84; 2yr @ 4.76; 6 mo @ 5.04.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - 06/07/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -06/07/07; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07.
6mo above 2 yr 06/25/07 - ??? above 5 yr 07/11/07 - ????
Resistance: DJIA 14025; SP500 1555; NAZ 2725; NDX 2045
Support: DJIA 13630; SP500 1525; NAZ 2645; NDX 1972
The Yuan or RMB is a proxy for the Yen, so expect a haircut in the carry trade...and the markets reaction was instant with a broadbased intraday plunge of 212 points during options expiration.
Last night the People's Bank of China ordered an increase of 0.27 bps in commercial banks' benchmark one-year deposit and lending rates.
That will take the one-year benchmark deposit rate to 3.33% from 3.06 %. The one-year lending rate will rise to 6.84 % from 6.57 %.
Caterpillar profit -21% on weak North American sales, blaming the housing debacle. Sonoco profit falling, Sandisk profit -71%, AMD posts loss, Microsoft matched, Google missed.
Today, $5B in Fed reanimation. Crude heading for $80, DJIA closed 13.85K, NDX fell to 2035. SP500 to 1534. SP500 still needs to close above 1550 2 days straight.
We reserve judgement on an overall change in market direction. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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