Market Soapbox 11/01/07
THU, triple-triple slapdown, DJIA -362 on higher volume with devastating internals.
All DOWN +1%. Bonds UP BIG 10 yr yield -12bps 4.34, $ up vs 1.4437E & down vs 114.57Y, WTI crude down 1% $93.49, gold down $793.7
For quite a while: "Oct 31st will be a critical juncture for the market."
Tues: "Cut with tempered statement initially excites, then deflates as the cut is already priced in."
Yesterday: "Long term, we sense the downside potential outweighs the upside, as 2nd cut history vis a vis 01/31/01 could repeat itself. We look for a near term peak with a potential slow fall to come."
Yesterday's spike up was transitory as the downside potential was swift and mericless. Perhaps yesterdays NDX peak at 2239 qualified as the markets near term peak.
NDX gap down 2239 to 2223, rise to 2226, then plunged to 2196 to close down 43 points. SP500 gapped down 1549 to 1545, plunging to 1506, close at 1508, down 41 points.
Yen rose against the 16 most traded currencies as carry traders liquidated positions to take profits. Bonds jumped on a flight to safety. Volatility surged, VIX +27% hitting 24.15 intraday.
RUT sliced through and DJIA plunged to 75 DMA, SP500 at 50 DMA support, substantial penetration of 75 DMA 1500 on a closing basis means we have only just begun.
Since 10/23 PG has gone from 73.05 intraday high to 68.59, a 6% haircut. Penetration of 67 could mean the mustard is officially off the hot dog. Watch it closely.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
All DOWN +1%. Bonds UP BIG 10 yr yield -12bps 4.34, $ up vs 1.4437E & down vs 114.57Y, WTI crude down 1% $93.49, gold down $793.7
For quite a while: "Oct 31st will be a critical juncture for the market."
Tues: "Cut with tempered statement initially excites, then deflates as the cut is already priced in."
Yesterday: "Long term, we sense the downside potential outweighs the upside, as 2nd cut history vis a vis 01/31/01 could repeat itself. We look for a near term peak with a potential slow fall to come."
Yesterday's spike up was transitory as the downside potential was swift and mericless. Perhaps yesterdays NDX peak at 2239 qualified as the markets near term peak.
NDX gap down 2239 to 2223, rise to 2226, then plunged to 2196 to close down 43 points. SP500 gapped down 1549 to 1545, plunging to 1506, close at 1508, down 41 points.
Yen rose against the 16 most traded currencies as carry traders liquidated positions to take profits. Bonds jumped on a flight to safety. Volatility surged, VIX +27% hitting 24.15 intraday.
RUT sliced through and DJIA plunged to 75 DMA, SP500 at 50 DMA support, substantial penetration of 75 DMA 1500 on a closing basis means we have only just begun.
Since 10/23 PG has gone from 73.05 intraday high to 68.59, a 6% haircut. Penetration of 67 could mean the mustard is officially off the hot dog. Watch it closely.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
Comments