Economic Reports 12/13/07
Summary: Twin deficits growing. Import & Export Prices show double digit energy based stagflation rising.
Initial claims "improving"... continuing unemployment is rising and the bleed from housing into other sectors has become a flood.
"Retail sales strong"... retail holiday sales up on rising prices, automotive plunging.
Business inventories "steady"... shows YOY sales with double digit price stagflation.
Core PPI "raises inflation concerns"... PPI giving reaffirmation of all the above, a disaster, the largest increase since 1973.
Lets just keep on making Ethanol from corn and importing foreign oil, instead of using Methane gas. Thank Dubya Shrub and his cronies, the Saudis & Seven Sisters.
Trade Balance Oct -$57.8 B vs prior -$56.5B Full Report
Inside the number: increases in export numbers (price stagflation) are being passed off as organic economic "growth".
Treasury Budget Nov - -$98.2B vs prior -$55.5B Full Report
Inside the number: FY08 -$153.7B. The outlays for treasury debt interest are $25.3 billion, which is 10.2% of the total current month outlays.
Import Prices ex-oil Nov +0.7% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Export Prices ex-ag. Nov +0.8% vs prior +0.5%. All imports +2.7%; all exports +0.9%.
Imported non manufactured articles +7.8% YOY: imports +11.4%; petroleum +53%; exports +6.1%; ag +23%
Initial Claims 12/08 -7K 333K vs 340K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -2K at 338.75K. Continuing unemployment +38K at 2.639M; 4 week MA +18.75K at 2.613M.
Do yourself a favor, click on the link and go to the bottom, states with an increase of 1K or more, its a horror show.
Retail Sales Nov +1.2% vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail Sales ex-auto Nov +1.8% vs prior +0.4%. Prices went through the roof boosting holiday "sales". Automotive -1.1% vs -0.8%
Business Inventories Oct Flat vs prior +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Inventories Durable -0.1% vs +0.5%; Non durable +0.1% vs +0.9%. Sales +0.7% vs +1.4%; Durable +0.6% vs +0.2%; Non Durable +0.7% vs +2.5%
YOY Sales +11.5%; Durable +5.3%; Non Durable +17.7%. Inventories +4.6%; Durable +0.5%; Non Durable +12.1%
So what are we not doing as much of? Building homes, cars and manufacturing: YOY Sales Lumber -10.9%; Inventories Lumber -5.2%; Auto -4.8%; Metals -7%.
Price changes are not considered. So, what went up in price and how much?
Sales; Misc Durables +10.4%; Groceries +13.1%; Farm product +39.8%; Petroleum +38%; Misc Non Durables +15.9%
PPI Nov +3.2% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: The largest increase since 1973. Intermediate goods +3.7%, Crude goods +8.7%.
Mythical Core PPI Nov +0.4% vs prior 0.0%. Energy intermediate +13.3%; ; crude +17%. Food intermediate +1.2%; crude +2%.
In Nov, Finished consumer goods +4%; EX FOOD +5.5%; Non durable goods EX FOOD +7.1%. Crude Non food materials +12.1% vs prior +4.6%.
PPI YOY finished goods +7.2%; finished consumer goods +9.1%; ex food +9.7%; Intermediate +8.1%; Crude +22.4%.
The table 2 YOY % change column is an absolute horror story. FYI: Electronic Computers -23.6% and refined sugar -15.8%.
Brazil and the majority of the world, make ethanol from SUGAR!
Initial claims "improving"... continuing unemployment is rising and the bleed from housing into other sectors has become a flood.
"Retail sales strong"... retail holiday sales up on rising prices, automotive plunging.
Business inventories "steady"... shows YOY sales with double digit price stagflation.
Core PPI "raises inflation concerns"... PPI giving reaffirmation of all the above, a disaster, the largest increase since 1973.
Lets just keep on making Ethanol from corn and importing foreign oil, instead of using Methane gas. Thank Dubya Shrub and his cronies, the Saudis & Seven Sisters.
Trade Balance Oct -$57.8 B vs prior -$56.5B Full Report
Inside the number: increases in export numbers (price stagflation) are being passed off as organic economic "growth".
Treasury Budget Nov - -$98.2B vs prior -$55.5B Full Report
Inside the number: FY08 -$153.7B. The outlays for treasury debt interest are $25.3 billion, which is 10.2% of the total current month outlays.
Import Prices ex-oil Nov +0.7% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Export Prices ex-ag. Nov +0.8% vs prior +0.5%. All imports +2.7%; all exports +0.9%.
Imported non manufactured articles +7.8% YOY: imports +11.4%; petroleum +53%; exports +6.1%; ag +23%
Initial Claims 12/08 -7K 333K vs 340K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -2K at 338.75K. Continuing unemployment +38K at 2.639M; 4 week MA +18.75K at 2.613M.
Do yourself a favor, click on the link and go to the bottom, states with an increase of 1K or more, its a horror show.
Retail Sales Nov +1.2% vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail Sales ex-auto Nov +1.8% vs prior +0.4%. Prices went through the roof boosting holiday "sales". Automotive -1.1% vs -0.8%
Business Inventories Oct Flat vs prior +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Inventories Durable -0.1% vs +0.5%; Non durable +0.1% vs +0.9%. Sales +0.7% vs +1.4%; Durable +0.6% vs +0.2%; Non Durable +0.7% vs +2.5%
YOY Sales +11.5%; Durable +5.3%; Non Durable +17.7%. Inventories +4.6%; Durable +0.5%; Non Durable +12.1%
So what are we not doing as much of? Building homes, cars and manufacturing: YOY Sales Lumber -10.9%; Inventories Lumber -5.2%; Auto -4.8%; Metals -7%.
Price changes are not considered. So, what went up in price and how much?
Sales; Misc Durables +10.4%; Groceries +13.1%; Farm product +39.8%; Petroleum +38%; Misc Non Durables +15.9%
PPI Nov +3.2% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: The largest increase since 1973. Intermediate goods +3.7%, Crude goods +8.7%.
Mythical Core PPI Nov +0.4% vs prior 0.0%. Energy intermediate +13.3%; ; crude +17%. Food intermediate +1.2%; crude +2%.
In Nov, Finished consumer goods +4%; EX FOOD +5.5%; Non durable goods EX FOOD +7.1%. Crude Non food materials +12.1% vs prior +4.6%.
PPI YOY finished goods +7.2%; finished consumer goods +9.1%; ex food +9.7%; Intermediate +8.1%; Crude +22.4%.
The table 2 YOY % change column is an absolute horror story. FYI: Electronic Computers -23.6% and refined sugar -15.8%.
Brazil and the majority of the world, make ethanol from SUGAR!
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