Economic Reports 01/16/08
Summary: CPI double digit stagflation a fact. Industrial Production, for Q4 its officially a "recession" and over a cliff.
TIC data shows foreign banks divesting of dollar denominated securities, private investors buying short term treasuries.
CPI Dec +0.3% vs prior +0.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Dec +0.2% vs prior +0.3%. Case on double digit stagflation for 2007 closed:
Table 4 CPI-W YTD non durables less food, beverages & apparel +15.8%; non durables less food +11.2%; energy +18.1%.
Industrial Production Dec FLAT vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Dec 81.4% vs prior 81.5%. FLAT cept sequential declines:
-0.3 vs -0.2% non industrial supplies; construction -0.9% vs -0.2%; materials -0.3% vs +0.5%; utilities -0.2 vs FLAT; manufacturing FLAT vs +0.3%.
It gets worse... Table 1 Q4 annual rate: consumer goods -3.3%; durables -8.4%; auto -9.7%; appliances & furniture -10.1%;
non durables -1.6%; industrial business equip -1.4%; construction -5.4%; wood products -18.6%; motor vehicles -13.1%
This is Greenspans "productivity miracle" and globalism at work, durable jobs got shipped out, economy takes a downturn,
now the service types are all just sitting around with nothing to do and the leveraged speculators have no money to spend.
Its a vicious circle which will only worsen as 2008 turns into an economic Nightmare on Wall Street.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Nov $90.9 vs $114.0B Full Report
Inside the number: Private declined 58.6 vs 96.2, going net 20.6 vs 4.8 on goverment agency bonds.
Official bank declined 11.8 vs 21.8 dropping Treasuries from 4 to 0.4 billion.
YTD TIC Flows: $618.4 billion vs $1146.6 billion or a decline of 46%; Private flows 343.3 vs 1031.3 or a decline of 66.7%.
US Treasuries 29.4 vs -21.7 or +51.1 billion; banks net dollar denominated liabilities -125.7 vs +249.5 billion or -375.2 billion.
TIC data shows foreign banks divesting of dollar denominated securities, private investors buying short term treasuries.
CPI Dec +0.3% vs prior +0.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Dec +0.2% vs prior +0.3%. Case on double digit stagflation for 2007 closed:
Table 4 CPI-W YTD non durables less food, beverages & apparel +15.8%; non durables less food +11.2%; energy +18.1%.
Industrial Production Dec FLAT vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Dec 81.4% vs prior 81.5%. FLAT cept sequential declines:
-0.3 vs -0.2% non industrial supplies; construction -0.9% vs -0.2%; materials -0.3% vs +0.5%; utilities -0.2 vs FLAT; manufacturing FLAT vs +0.3%.
It gets worse... Table 1 Q4 annual rate: consumer goods -3.3%; durables -8.4%; auto -9.7%; appliances & furniture -10.1%;
non durables -1.6%; industrial business equip -1.4%; construction -5.4%; wood products -18.6%; motor vehicles -13.1%
This is Greenspans "productivity miracle" and globalism at work, durable jobs got shipped out, economy takes a downturn,
now the service types are all just sitting around with nothing to do and the leveraged speculators have no money to spend.
Its a vicious circle which will only worsen as 2008 turns into an economic Nightmare on Wall Street.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Nov $90.9 vs $114.0B Full Report
Inside the number: Private declined 58.6 vs 96.2, going net 20.6 vs 4.8 on goverment agency bonds.
Official bank declined 11.8 vs 21.8 dropping Treasuries from 4 to 0.4 billion.
YTD TIC Flows: $618.4 billion vs $1146.6 billion or a decline of 46%; Private flows 343.3 vs 1031.3 or a decline of 66.7%.
US Treasuries 29.4 vs -21.7 or +51.1 billion; banks net dollar denominated liabilities -125.7 vs +249.5 billion or -375.2 billion.
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