Economic Reports 01/24/08
Summary: Initial claims flat, continuing improves.
Existing home sales largest annual drop since 1982...inventory improves as homes that don't sell are pulled off the market till Spring.
1st annual price decline on record, double digit decline out West.
Initial Claims 01/19 -1K at 301K vs prior 302K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -14K at 314.75K. Continuing unemployment -75K at 2.672M; 4 week MA -10.25K at 2.225N. Read states with an increase of more than 1K.
The drop in continuing claims could be claims expiring into "not counted in workforce". Watch it.
Existing Home Sales Dec -2.2% 4.89M vs prior 5.00M Full Report
Inside the number: YOY -22%; inventory -5%; YOY +45.5% or 9.6 months; prices -6%.
SFR -2% YOY -21.6%; inventory -6.1%; YOY +43.8% or 9.2 months; prices -6.5%; 1st annual price decline on record; West -11.2%
NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, California:
"The most effective way to stimulate housing and minimize the potential for a recession is for lawmakers...
to raise the limit on conforming mortgages to 625,000 dollars, which would open safe and affordable financing to buyers in high-cost areas."
The Nattering One muses... Shame on Mr. Gaylord & the NAR for supporting the rich and greedy investors.
Thin the herd, cleanse the market, no subsidies or implicit underwriting of $500K to $1 Million McMansions.
Prices in these areas need to come back to a real wage & fair rent reality. Stupid people and greedy investors who paid too much, should be culled from the market.
We have ZERO sympathy and our position and remedy has already been stated here.
We wish to amend our position to include the exception of refi for medical related expenses.
Existing home sales largest annual drop since 1982...inventory improves as homes that don't sell are pulled off the market till Spring.
1st annual price decline on record, double digit decline out West.
Initial Claims 01/19 -1K at 301K vs prior 302K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -14K at 314.75K. Continuing unemployment -75K at 2.672M; 4 week MA -10.25K at 2.225N. Read states with an increase of more than 1K.
The drop in continuing claims could be claims expiring into "not counted in workforce". Watch it.
Existing Home Sales Dec -2.2% 4.89M vs prior 5.00M Full Report
Inside the number: YOY -22%; inventory -5%; YOY +45.5% or 9.6 months; prices -6%.
SFR -2% YOY -21.6%; inventory -6.1%; YOY +43.8% or 9.2 months; prices -6.5%; 1st annual price decline on record; West -11.2%
NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, California:
"The most effective way to stimulate housing and minimize the potential for a recession is for lawmakers...
to raise the limit on conforming mortgages to 625,000 dollars, which would open safe and affordable financing to buyers in high-cost areas."
The Nattering One muses... Shame on Mr. Gaylord & the NAR for supporting the rich and greedy investors.
Thin the herd, cleanse the market, no subsidies or implicit underwriting of $500K to $1 Million McMansions.
Prices in these areas need to come back to a real wage & fair rent reality. Stupid people and greedy investors who paid too much, should be culled from the market.
We have ZERO sympathy and our position and remedy has already been stated here.
We wish to amend our position to include the exception of refi for medical related expenses.
Comments
Once again, wonderfully informative and entertaining posts. Don't know if you've read the January 25th edition of GRANT'S Interest Rate Observer, but it has a great article on deconstructing a CDO that I found fascinating.
Just thought I'd drop a link to a Miami Herald article for you to see just how prescient you have been about realtors and the media hoodwinking the public into telling them this is a buying opportunity. Here's the link: http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/392906.html
One of the more revealing items in the article is that it is once again investors trying to make opportunistic purchases of homes banking on a quick turnaround and meteoric rise in prices.
I agree wholeheartedly that the herd needs to be thinned and the market cleansed sans government intervention (with the exception of medical or other significant emergencies). I am a commercial realtor in Miami and work for a brokerage that handles commercial and residential. The industry is hurting and has been for a little over a year now. However, the pain is completely justified and needs to continue until prices come back to earth. I am sad to say that I am in the minority in my office and in the industry.
Thank you for the compliment and info.
I moderate my comments, i.e. they don't see the light of day unless I give approval.
Please forward your contact info as I have FLA RE interests and would like to discuss offline.