Market Observations 03/20/08
Resistance: DJIA 12460 (500DMA); SP500 1345 (750DMA); NAZ 2280 (900DMA); NDX 1775 (650DMA)
Support: DJIA 11750 (800DMA); SP500 1295 (1000DMA); NAZ 2160 (1250DMA); NDX 1675 (1000DMA)
SP500 open 1299, dip 1295, rise to close 1329. NDX 1715 gap up open 1719, drop to 1712, rise to close 1751.
The VIX closed at a five-year high of 32.24 on Monday.
In 1938, the most volatile year since the SP500 inception in 1928, the index rose or fell at least 1% during 57% of the trading days.
The SP 500 is down 12% this year and has advanced or declined 1% or more on 28 days.
That's 52% of the trading sessions so far, which is the highest proportion since 1938.
Finally, the dollar bounces & pop goes the commodities bubble... today Cocoa -9%, wheat -8%; soybeans & corn -4%
This week commodities plunged the most since 1956 as the CRB Commodity Index got hammered 8.3%,
on limited liquidity as margin calls swamped the only trading desk on margin.
While the dollar gained 1.5%, oil slid 8% from its $110 high and Gold lost 11.8% from its all-time high on Monday.
Expect more pullback as the economy lies down dead next to John Q's spending.
WEN: For every safety net the government tries to throw under this circus highwire act, the more they f*ck it up.
Some observers are taking this headfake as an opportunity to sell. We expect some more upswing before reality sets in again.
Witness the rush to safety; fly, fly, fly, PG back above 69; and the 3 mo T bill yield at 0.61%.
Despite all the fire, noise, smoke & mirrors, and a bellowing voice saying, pay no heed to that man behind the curtain...
Nothings changed, my pretties. When the helium comes out of the Wizard's ballon on the next leg down, the landing will not be pretty.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Support: DJIA 11750 (800DMA); SP500 1295 (1000DMA); NAZ 2160 (1250DMA); NDX 1675 (1000DMA)
SP500 open 1299, dip 1295, rise to close 1329. NDX 1715 gap up open 1719, drop to 1712, rise to close 1751.
The VIX closed at a five-year high of 32.24 on Monday.
In 1938, the most volatile year since the SP500 inception in 1928, the index rose or fell at least 1% during 57% of the trading days.
The SP 500 is down 12% this year and has advanced or declined 1% or more on 28 days.
That's 52% of the trading sessions so far, which is the highest proportion since 1938.
Finally, the dollar bounces & pop goes the commodities bubble... today Cocoa -9%, wheat -8%; soybeans & corn -4%
This week commodities plunged the most since 1956 as the CRB Commodity Index got hammered 8.3%,
on limited liquidity as margin calls swamped the only trading desk on margin.
While the dollar gained 1.5%, oil slid 8% from its $110 high and Gold lost 11.8% from its all-time high on Monday.
Expect more pullback as the economy lies down dead next to John Q's spending.
WEN: For every safety net the government tries to throw under this circus highwire act, the more they f*ck it up.
Some observers are taking this headfake as an opportunity to sell. We expect some more upswing before reality sets in again.
Witness the rush to safety; fly, fly, fly, PG back above 69; and the 3 mo T bill yield at 0.61%.
Despite all the fire, noise, smoke & mirrors, and a bellowing voice saying, pay no heed to that man behind the curtain...
Nothings changed, my pretties. When the helium comes out of the Wizard's ballon on the next leg down, the landing will not be pretty.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Comments