Personal Income & Spending; Chicago PMI; Consumer Confidence
Summary: Headlines read personal income & spending, Chicago PMI & Consumer sentiment matching forecasts...
Meanwhile, under the sheets... reality, read em and weap...
Income & spending reveal zero growth & stagflation... Despite $42 billion in additional spending, ZERO real growth (much like GDP).
Chicago PMI reveals region stuck in decline mode with a 4th straight month of contraction and dwindling cap ex.
Consumer sentiment reveals a new 28 year low with downward future expectations.
Personal Income Apr +0.2% vs +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Personal Spending Apr +0.2% vs +0.4%. Real (Chained 2000 dollars) Spending ZERO; Income ZERO; Disposable Income ZERO; PCE +0.1%
Table 7, John Q pulls back: % change real dollars PCE monthly: durable -0.2%; non durable -0.2%; services +0.1%.
Table 8 For Q1 durable goods -6.2%; non durable -0.3%; services +3%
Stagflation rages: Despite $41.7 billion in additional current dollar spending, adjusted for inflation increase was ZERO.
Table 6, PCE Q1 current dollars; durable goods -6.4%; non durable +6.2%; services +5.7%
Chicago PMI May 49.1 vs 48.3 Full Report
Inside the number: 4th straight month of contraction; prices paid soared above 80 for the 4th time this year 87.5 vs 82.9;
six month employment decline continues 41.2 vs 35.3;
capital equipment lead times signal softening economy with persistent declines since December.
Mich Sentiment-Rev. May 59.8 vs 62.6 Full Report
Inside the number: the lowest since June 1980 58.7 - 28 years. Nine-in-ten consumers thought that the economy was in recession in May,
with record numbers citing unfavorable news about rising prices, lost jobs, slowing economic growth, and the continuing fallout from the credit and housing crises.
Richard Curtin, Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers:
"Consumers are painfully aware that their living standards are shrinking under
the weight of higher food and fuel prices and see little hope for improvement any time soon.
Three-in-four consumers expected bad times financially in the economy during the year ahead,
the highest proportion to anticipate such negative economic prospects in more than a quarter century.
When asked to explain their views, consumers said that they favored the postponement of purchases given
their uncertainty about their future income and job prospects as well as concerns about the future course of gas and food prices."
Meanwhile, under the sheets... reality, read em and weap...
Income & spending reveal zero growth & stagflation... Despite $42 billion in additional spending, ZERO real growth (much like GDP).
Chicago PMI reveals region stuck in decline mode with a 4th straight month of contraction and dwindling cap ex.
Consumer sentiment reveals a new 28 year low with downward future expectations.
Personal Income Apr +0.2% vs +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Personal Spending Apr +0.2% vs +0.4%. Real (Chained 2000 dollars) Spending ZERO; Income ZERO; Disposable Income ZERO; PCE +0.1%
Table 7, John Q pulls back: % change real dollars PCE monthly: durable -0.2%; non durable -0.2%; services +0.1%.
Table 8 For Q1 durable goods -6.2%; non durable -0.3%; services +3%
Stagflation rages: Despite $41.7 billion in additional current dollar spending, adjusted for inflation increase was ZERO.
Table 6, PCE Q1 current dollars; durable goods -6.4%; non durable +6.2%; services +5.7%
Chicago PMI May 49.1 vs 48.3 Full Report
Inside the number: 4th straight month of contraction; prices paid soared above 80 for the 4th time this year 87.5 vs 82.9;
six month employment decline continues 41.2 vs 35.3;
capital equipment lead times signal softening economy with persistent declines since December.
Mich Sentiment-Rev. May 59.8 vs 62.6 Full Report
Inside the number: the lowest since June 1980 58.7 - 28 years. Nine-in-ten consumers thought that the economy was in recession in May,
with record numbers citing unfavorable news about rising prices, lost jobs, slowing economic growth, and the continuing fallout from the credit and housing crises.
Richard Curtin, Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers:
"Consumers are painfully aware that their living standards are shrinking under
the weight of higher food and fuel prices and see little hope for improvement any time soon.
Three-in-four consumers expected bad times financially in the economy during the year ahead,
the highest proportion to anticipate such negative economic prospects in more than a quarter century.
When asked to explain their views, consumers said that they favored the postponement of purchases given
their uncertainty about their future income and job prospects as well as concerns about the future course of gas and food prices."
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