Non Farm Payrolls Jun; ISM Services; Initial Claims 06/28; ECB Rate
Summary: Headline reads initial claims exceeds 400K for 2nd time this year.
Under the sheets, continuing claims up 24% yoy; anything over 20% means recession.
Headline reads, ECB bucks trend with 25 bps rate hike. Under the sheets,
15 central banks have raised rates from 12.5 to 50bps in the last two months.
Headline reads, ISM Services drops into contraction. Under the sheets,
the index fell sharply as last months increase proved transitory and rising prices hit services margins.
Headline reads, Non Farm Payrolls shrank again. Under the sheets,
the downhill roll continues as the broad based bleed from housing officially contracted the service sector which comprises 80% of our economic "growth".
Initial Claims 06/28 +16K at 404K vs 388K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up 4K. 4 week MA +11.25K at 390.5K. Continuing unemployment -19K at 3.116M; 4 week MA +8.75K at 3.102M.
Compared with last year, initial claims +23%; continuing claims +24%. Continuing claims have never risen above 20% without th economy falling into recession.
See increases >1K in report for the bleed into service sector.
ECB Rate Announcement
Increase 25 bpb to 4.25%, Swedish and Danish central banks joined by raising 25 bps to 4.5% and 4.6%.
1st ECB increase in more than a year amid spiraling inflation and soaring oil prices which sent European inflation to their highest levels in 16 years.
13 other central banks raising last two months:
Raising 12.5 bps: Taiwan 3.625
Raising 25 bps: Norway 5.75; Poland 6; Russia 10.75; Romania 10; Mexico 7.75; Philippines 5.25; Indonesia 8.75; Israel 3.75
Raising 50 bps: Brazil 12.25; Chile 6.75; Saudi Arabia 12; Turkey 16.25
ISM Services Jun 48.2 vs 51.7 Full Report
Inside the number: Contracting; business activity 49.9 vs 53.6; new orders 48.6 vs 53.6; employment 43.8 vs 48.7
Whats Increasing? Prices 84.5 vs 77
"Oil prices are affecting most every supplier we have." (Transportation & Warehousing)
"Energy costs are beyond the pain point. They are disruptive to every part of our business." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
"Challenging due to continuing cost pressure from suppliers. Planning on decreased production activity as summer wears on and budgets tighten." (Other Services*)
"High cost of commodities, fuel prices, are impacting margins and economic conditions are negatively impacting traffic counts and average check amounts." (Accommodation & Food Services)
"Energy cost is starting to have an effect on cost of products from all sectors." (Wholesale Trade)
Nonfarm Payrolls Jun -62K vs -49K Full Report
Inside the number: Pay no heed to those train loads of people heading West.... the sixth straight month of negative job growth.
How bad is it? The Unemployment Rate in June was magically unchanged at 5.5% due to:
the civilian labor force shrank -144K to accomodate a -155K decrease in employed people.
While the ranks of the unemployed only increased +12K as an additional +365K people were deemed NOT to be in the labor force.
Where could all these people NOT in the labor force be disappearing to for so long?
median duration of unemployment has increased by 61% in the last year. In weeks from table A9: June 07 average 15.1; median 6.2; June 08 average 17.5; median 10.
Are they being sent to "a better place" with better jobs?
Table A12 U6 unemployed + marginally attached + part time; rising to 9.9% vs 9.7% vs 8.5% a year ago.
Cattle freight cars packed full of people...
It gets worse... Table B1: private sector -91K; goods producing -69K; construction -43K; manufacturing -33K; service providing +7K; government +29K.
The Nattering One muses... We've Nattered many a time about this, since 2001;
6 of 10 new jobs directly related to housing; 2 of 10 new jobs service related support for those other 6 new jobs.
In other words 80% of all new jobs attributable to housing.
From Table B1: administrative & support services -70.2K; and drum roll please...
subtracting out the +29K guvmint jobs means: private services providing jobs actually contracted -22K.
Who will save those trainloads of unemployed jam packed into freight cars from the "Autumn People" with their trickery, spells, evil powers and destructive ways?
Step right up! get your ticket! sit down, strap in and start screaming because...
Mr. Dark and his Pandemonium Carnival rolled into town in 2000, but the worst of their deeds are not yet done, and you can't say you were not warned.
Under the sheets, continuing claims up 24% yoy; anything over 20% means recession.
Headline reads, ECB bucks trend with 25 bps rate hike. Under the sheets,
15 central banks have raised rates from 12.5 to 50bps in the last two months.
Headline reads, ISM Services drops into contraction. Under the sheets,
the index fell sharply as last months increase proved transitory and rising prices hit services margins.
Headline reads, Non Farm Payrolls shrank again. Under the sheets,
the downhill roll continues as the broad based bleed from housing officially contracted the service sector which comprises 80% of our economic "growth".
Initial Claims 06/28 +16K at 404K vs 388K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up 4K. 4 week MA +11.25K at 390.5K. Continuing unemployment -19K at 3.116M; 4 week MA +8.75K at 3.102M.
Compared with last year, initial claims +23%; continuing claims +24%. Continuing claims have never risen above 20% without th economy falling into recession.
See increases >1K in report for the bleed into service sector.
ECB Rate Announcement
Increase 25 bpb to 4.25%, Swedish and Danish central banks joined by raising 25 bps to 4.5% and 4.6%.
1st ECB increase in more than a year amid spiraling inflation and soaring oil prices which sent European inflation to their highest levels in 16 years.
13 other central banks raising last two months:
Raising 12.5 bps: Taiwan 3.625
Raising 25 bps: Norway 5.75; Poland 6; Russia 10.75; Romania 10; Mexico 7.75; Philippines 5.25; Indonesia 8.75; Israel 3.75
Raising 50 bps: Brazil 12.25; Chile 6.75; Saudi Arabia 12; Turkey 16.25
ISM Services Jun 48.2 vs 51.7 Full Report
Inside the number: Contracting; business activity 49.9 vs 53.6; new orders 48.6 vs 53.6; employment 43.8 vs 48.7
Whats Increasing? Prices 84.5 vs 77
"Oil prices are affecting most every supplier we have." (Transportation & Warehousing)
"Energy costs are beyond the pain point. They are disruptive to every part of our business." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
"Challenging due to continuing cost pressure from suppliers. Planning on decreased production activity as summer wears on and budgets tighten." (Other Services*)
"High cost of commodities, fuel prices, are impacting margins and economic conditions are negatively impacting traffic counts and average check amounts." (Accommodation & Food Services)
"Energy cost is starting to have an effect on cost of products from all sectors." (Wholesale Trade)
Nonfarm Payrolls Jun -62K vs -49K Full Report
Inside the number: Pay no heed to those train loads of people heading West.... the sixth straight month of negative job growth.
How bad is it? The Unemployment Rate in June was magically unchanged at 5.5% due to:
the civilian labor force shrank -144K to accomodate a -155K decrease in employed people.
While the ranks of the unemployed only increased +12K as an additional +365K people were deemed NOT to be in the labor force.
Where could all these people NOT in the labor force be disappearing to for so long?
median duration of unemployment has increased by 61% in the last year. In weeks from table A9: June 07 average 15.1; median 6.2; June 08 average 17.5; median 10.
Are they being sent to "a better place" with better jobs?
Table A12 U6 unemployed + marginally attached + part time; rising to 9.9% vs 9.7% vs 8.5% a year ago.
Cattle freight cars packed full of people...
It gets worse... Table B1: private sector -91K; goods producing -69K; construction -43K; manufacturing -33K; service providing +7K; government +29K.
The Nattering One muses... We've Nattered many a time about this, since 2001;
6 of 10 new jobs directly related to housing; 2 of 10 new jobs service related support for those other 6 new jobs.
In other words 80% of all new jobs attributable to housing.
From Table B1: administrative & support services -70.2K; and drum roll please...
subtracting out the +29K guvmint jobs means: private services providing jobs actually contracted -22K.
Who will save those trainloads of unemployed jam packed into freight cars from the "Autumn People" with their trickery, spells, evil powers and destructive ways?
Step right up! get your ticket! sit down, strap in and start screaming because...
Mr. Dark and his Pandemonium Carnival rolled into town in 2000, but the worst of their deeds are not yet done, and you can't say you were not warned.
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