TIC Foreign Inflows, NY Empire Index, NAHB/WF Housing Index, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment
Summary: Headline reads, TIC flows below forecast.
Under the sheets, private party total 12 months ending June shows a massive $640 billion decline.
Headline reads NY Empire index up. Under the sheets, production is down & inventories building.
Headline reads Housing index steady. Under the sheets, still at an all time low.
Headline reads Industrial Production up. Under the sheets, still declining YTD.
Headline reads Consumer Sentiment up for 2nd month. Under the sheets, a dead cat bounce with more downside to come.
Net Foreign Purchases Jun $53.4B vs $83.2B Full Report
Inside the number: YTD Monthly Net TIC flows private net 25.1 vs 665.6 B, a decline of $640 Billion.
NY Empire State Index Aug 2.8 vs -4.9 Full Report
Inside the number: declining; new orders -2.2 vs +8.2; shipments -1 vs +14; building; inventories 6 vs -15.
Anticipated inflation: prices received 6 months from now 53 vs 47
NAHB/WF Housing Market Index 16 vs 16 Full Report
Industrial Production Jul +0.2% vs +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Jul 79.9% vs 79.8%. Yoy Final Products -0.4%; Consumer goods -1.1%; non industrial supplies -2.3%; Construction -5.3%; Manufacturing -1.1%
Mich Sentiment-Prel.Aug 61.7 vs 61.2 Full Report
Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers:
"Even after the small July gain, the overall level of consumer confidence is dismal and still points toward declines in the pace of spending in late 2008 and early 2009.
The gains could signal that consumers simply overestimated the extent of the economic damage
or even that they now sense that the end of the economy’s decline is on the distant horizon.
It is more likely that the gains in confidence reflect a “dead cat bounce,” a phenomena has been repeatedly observed over the past fifty years:
following a steep decline in confidence a small gain is recorded before confidence resumes its downward slide."
Under the sheets, private party total 12 months ending June shows a massive $640 billion decline.
Headline reads NY Empire index up. Under the sheets, production is down & inventories building.
Headline reads Housing index steady. Under the sheets, still at an all time low.
Headline reads Industrial Production up. Under the sheets, still declining YTD.
Headline reads Consumer Sentiment up for 2nd month. Under the sheets, a dead cat bounce with more downside to come.
Net Foreign Purchases Jun $53.4B vs $83.2B Full Report
Inside the number: YTD Monthly Net TIC flows private net 25.1 vs 665.6 B, a decline of $640 Billion.
NY Empire State Index Aug 2.8 vs -4.9 Full Report
Inside the number: declining; new orders -2.2 vs +8.2; shipments -1 vs +14; building; inventories 6 vs -15.
Anticipated inflation: prices received 6 months from now 53 vs 47
NAHB/WF Housing Market Index 16 vs 16 Full Report
Industrial Production Jul +0.2% vs +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Jul 79.9% vs 79.8%. Yoy Final Products -0.4%; Consumer goods -1.1%; non industrial supplies -2.3%; Construction -5.3%; Manufacturing -1.1%
Mich Sentiment-Prel.Aug 61.7 vs 61.2 Full Report
Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers:
"Even after the small July gain, the overall level of consumer confidence is dismal and still points toward declines in the pace of spending in late 2008 and early 2009.
The gains could signal that consumers simply overestimated the extent of the economic damage
or even that they now sense that the end of the economy’s decline is on the distant horizon.
It is more likely that the gains in confidence reflect a “dead cat bounce,” a phenomena has been repeatedly observed over the past fifty years:
following a steep decline in confidence a small gain is recorded before confidence resumes its downward slide."
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