Market Soapbox 09/02/08
MON, Labor Day Markets Closed.
TUE, huge swing, DJIA -27 on tepid volume with poor internals. All DOWN.
Bonds up BIG 10 yr -8bps 3.73, $ up BIG vs 1.4507€ & down vs 108.725y, WTI -5% $110.34 gold -3% $810.5, TED spread up +3bps 1.13%.
SP500 1283, gap up 1288, rise to 1303, 30 pt nose dive to 1272, close 1277. NDX 1872, gap up 1904, rise to 1913, dive to 1843, close 1850.
FRI: Personal Income & Spending shows: incomes declined; largest spending drop in 4 years; largest price inflation in 17 years.
Today, manufacturing in contraction for the 9th straight month...
16th straight decline in private residential construction spending as the main economic engine is off 40% Yoy.
The dollar surged on all the "upbeat" economic news...
commodities sold off as crude oil dropped under $108 intraday; and investors got snookered as the market rallied big early S&P +20.
Newsflash: crude oil is still $55 higher than last year.
As inflation rages & the economy sinks... the reality of the bad macro news hit and the S&P plunged 30 points.
Under pressure... at the last Fed meeting...
3 of 12 Fed banks (Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City) sought a quarter-point increase in the discount rate from 2.25%.
Shares in the SP500 have climbed to an average 25.8X reported profits, the highest valuation in five years.
The last time that happened in 2001, the S&P 500 fell 38%.
Today, SP500 slammed into 1100 DMA resistance and fell like a rock 30pts.
NDX crashed through support to put in a new low, since our called turn date on 08/18.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
TUE, huge swing, DJIA -27 on tepid volume with poor internals. All DOWN.
Bonds up BIG 10 yr -8bps 3.73, $ up BIG vs 1.4507€ & down vs 108.725y, WTI -5% $110.34 gold -3% $810.5, TED spread up +3bps 1.13%.
SP500 1283, gap up 1288, rise to 1303, 30 pt nose dive to 1272, close 1277. NDX 1872, gap up 1904, rise to 1913, dive to 1843, close 1850.
FRI: Personal Income & Spending shows: incomes declined; largest spending drop in 4 years; largest price inflation in 17 years.
Today, manufacturing in contraction for the 9th straight month...
16th straight decline in private residential construction spending as the main economic engine is off 40% Yoy.
The dollar surged on all the "upbeat" economic news...
commodities sold off as crude oil dropped under $108 intraday; and investors got snookered as the market rallied big early S&P +20.
Newsflash: crude oil is still $55 higher than last year.
As inflation rages & the economy sinks... the reality of the bad macro news hit and the S&P plunged 30 points.
Under pressure... at the last Fed meeting...
3 of 12 Fed banks (Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City) sought a quarter-point increase in the discount rate from 2.25%.
Shares in the SP500 have climbed to an average 25.8X reported profits, the highest valuation in five years.
The last time that happened in 2001, the S&P 500 fell 38%.
Today, SP500 slammed into 1100 DMA resistance and fell like a rock 30pts.
NDX crashed through support to put in a new low, since our called turn date on 08/18.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Comments
So where I put my life savings? Treasury Bonds? Or just a CD in a 4* plus bank?