Market Observations 11/07/08
Resistance: DJIA 9630 (3400DMA); SP500 1005 (4100DMA); NAZ 1790 (4200DMA); NDX 1390 (4100DMA)
Support: DJIA 7940 (4650DMA); SP500 840 (5400DMA); NAZ 1490 (5400DMA); NDX 1145 (5200DMA)
SP500 906, rise to close 931. NDX 1242, gap up 1258, dip 1244, rise 1279, close 1271.
FRI: Whats driving the market up? In 3 days, the Fed has bought $165 billion in CP.... do not be fooled, its another house of cards.
MON: U.S. auto sales fell to their lowest monthly level since 1945. Oct ISM Index Oct 38.9 lowest level in 26 years; Private SFR Construction Spending -41.7% Yoy
TUE: Factory Orders -2.5%; in times of economic duress the incumbent party usually gets slaughtered. Yet, more chump pump DJIA +305
WEN: ADP Employment -157K the largest decline since 2002. Nov ISM Services Oct 44.4 the 6th contraction in 11 months and the largest decline since 1997.
THU: Productivity +2.3%; output -1.7%; why? less hours worked -2.7% due to layoffs... abysmal double digit retail same store sales declines.
FRI: GM $4.2 billion Q3 loss; burned $5 billion; available cash $16.2 billion;
Ford $3 billion Q3 loss; burned $7.7 billion; availabile cash $19 billion; they both will be BK sooner than most think.
In addition, GM will leave $15 billion of junk-rated debt holders on the hook; the bonds have lost 75%.
Both management teams should either commit hari-kari or be institutionalized for life due to mental incompetence.
#2 Euro insurer Allianz $2.6 billion loss; Buffet's Bershire Hathaway; a 4th straight profit drop; Q3 net -77%.
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct -240K vs prior -284K; prior revised up from -159K...
Unemployment Rate Oct 6.5% vs 6.1%; highest since 1994; total unemployed over 10 million; highest in 25 years.
Pending Home Sales Sep -4.6% vs -7.4% as less can qualify nor want to get cut catching a falling knive.
Collapse, 09/19 - 10/28, the RUT & MID -42%; SP500 -33%... We sensed last weeks dead cat bounce was another house of cards...
WEN & THU stocks down 10%... the worst 2 day decline since 1987...
Libor &TED spreads are down huge, which could give a lift... we sense another dead cat bounce is due; will it last?
Not for long, as the grim global economic reality will take this market down to new depths.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Support: DJIA 7940 (4650DMA); SP500 840 (5400DMA); NAZ 1490 (5400DMA); NDX 1145 (5200DMA)
SP500 906, rise to close 931. NDX 1242, gap up 1258, dip 1244, rise 1279, close 1271.
FRI: Whats driving the market up? In 3 days, the Fed has bought $165 billion in CP.... do not be fooled, its another house of cards.
MON: U.S. auto sales fell to their lowest monthly level since 1945. Oct ISM Index Oct 38.9 lowest level in 26 years; Private SFR Construction Spending -41.7% Yoy
TUE: Factory Orders -2.5%; in times of economic duress the incumbent party usually gets slaughtered. Yet, more chump pump DJIA +305
WEN: ADP Employment -157K the largest decline since 2002. Nov ISM Services Oct 44.4 the 6th contraction in 11 months and the largest decline since 1997.
THU: Productivity +2.3%; output -1.7%; why? less hours worked -2.7% due to layoffs... abysmal double digit retail same store sales declines.
FRI: GM $4.2 billion Q3 loss; burned $5 billion; available cash $16.2 billion;
Ford $3 billion Q3 loss; burned $7.7 billion; availabile cash $19 billion; they both will be BK sooner than most think.
In addition, GM will leave $15 billion of junk-rated debt holders on the hook; the bonds have lost 75%.
Both management teams should either commit hari-kari or be institutionalized for life due to mental incompetence.
#2 Euro insurer Allianz $2.6 billion loss; Buffet's Bershire Hathaway; a 4th straight profit drop; Q3 net -77%.
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct -240K vs prior -284K; prior revised up from -159K...
Unemployment Rate Oct 6.5% vs 6.1%; highest since 1994; total unemployed over 10 million; highest in 25 years.
Pending Home Sales Sep -4.6% vs -7.4% as less can qualify nor want to get cut catching a falling knive.
Collapse, 09/19 - 10/28, the RUT & MID -42%; SP500 -33%... We sensed last weeks dead cat bounce was another house of cards...
WEN & THU stocks down 10%... the worst 2 day decline since 1987...
Libor &TED spreads are down huge, which could give a lift... we sense another dead cat bounce is due; will it last?
Not for long, as the grim global economic reality will take this market down to new depths.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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