Market Soapbox 12/16/08
TUE, rate cut chump pump, DJIA +360 on average volume with sterling internals. ALL UP 4%+.
Bonds up BIG 10 yr -23bps 2.27%, $ down HUGE vs E1.406 & vs 88.72y, WTI -2% $44, gold +2% $855.6, TED spread -4bps 1.82%. 3mo Libor -2bps 1.85.
SP500 868, gap down 871, rise to close 913. NDX 1181, gap up 1195, rise to close 1244.
FRI: Senate rejects automotive bailout; Fed may throw TARP over automakers. Fed purchases another $3 billion of debt from Freddie; Fannie & FHLB.
MON: NY Empire State Index Dec -25.8 vs -25.4; NAHB/WF Housing Index 9 vs 9; Industrial Production Nov -0.8% vs +1.3%; assembly rates lowest level in 18 yrs.
Today, the good?... Fed funds rate cut 75 bps to 0.25%; CPI Nov -1.7% vs -1.0%.
The bad... Goldman Sachs revenue -52%; files 1st loss ever Q4 -$2.1 billion vs $11 billion; principal investments net loss Q4 $3.6 billion.
The ugly... Dollar index -2%; Building Permits -15.6% 616K vs 708K; Housing Starts -19% 625K vs 791K
The economic engine responsible for 80% of all new jobs since 2001 has record declines and the market jumps 360? What are they smoking?
Our main man Numerica, professor of Lutonian Mathematics sez... NDX 1262 near term; then a plunge to 976.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds up BIG 10 yr -23bps 2.27%, $ down HUGE vs E1.406 & vs 88.72y, WTI -2% $44, gold +2% $855.6, TED spread -4bps 1.82%. 3mo Libor -2bps 1.85.
SP500 868, gap down 871, rise to close 913. NDX 1181, gap up 1195, rise to close 1244.
FRI: Senate rejects automotive bailout; Fed may throw TARP over automakers. Fed purchases another $3 billion of debt from Freddie; Fannie & FHLB.
MON: NY Empire State Index Dec -25.8 vs -25.4; NAHB/WF Housing Index 9 vs 9; Industrial Production Nov -0.8% vs +1.3%; assembly rates lowest level in 18 yrs.
Today, the good?... Fed funds rate cut 75 bps to 0.25%; CPI Nov -1.7% vs -1.0%.
The bad... Goldman Sachs revenue -52%; files 1st loss ever Q4 -$2.1 billion vs $11 billion; principal investments net loss Q4 $3.6 billion.
The ugly... Dollar index -2%; Building Permits -15.6% 616K vs 708K; Housing Starts -19% 625K vs 791K
The economic engine responsible for 80% of all new jobs since 2001 has record declines and the market jumps 360? What are they smoking?
Our main man Numerica, professor of Lutonian Mathematics sez... NDX 1262 near term; then a plunge to 976.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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