Economic Reports 03/22/09
TIC Data Jan -43B vs +34.8B
Long-term flows are showing weakness in two of the last three available months of data. F
oreign demand for U.S. financial assets appears to be easing, no surprise given the nation's surging deficit.
Foreign investors continue to divest their U.S. agency holdings which fell a massive $22.5 billion in the month on top of December's even more massive $37.4 billion.
Foreigners were also net sellers of corporate bonds, down $8.4 billion in the month.
Foreigners continue to buy Treasuries, up $10.7 billion in the month with holdings by China up again.
PPI Feb +0.1%
2nd straight increase; Yoy -1.6%; Core PPI +0.2%; Yoy +3.9%. Indicates that price pressures are easing despite some firming in energy costs.
CPI Feb +0.4% vs +0.3%
Yoy +0.1%; Core CPI +0.2%; Yoy +1.8%. Energy +3.3%; Gasoline +8.3%; showed widespread and moderate gains within the core as asset prices continue to deflate.
NAHB/WF Housing Market Index Mar 9 vs 9
The good news is that the housing market index isn't falling any further. The bad news is that it's already at rock bottom.
Buyer traffic fell 2 points to 9. Foreclosure moratoriums, falling prices and low mortgage rates have to yet to help the housing market. Bail all you want to no avail.
Housing Starts Feb 583M vs 466M
Starts +22.2%; Yoy Starts -47.3%; SFR starts +1.1%; Yoy -50.6%. More important indicator of future growth...
Building Permits 547M vs 521M +3% Yoy -44.2%; SFR +11%; Yoy -42.3%.
Seasonal factors are large during winter months and it does not take much to jack up the adjusted numbers.
Industrial Production Feb -1.4% vs -1.8%
Manufacturing fell only 0.7% after a 2.7% drop in January. Manufacturing was bolstered by the return of auto assemblies.
Motor vehicles and parts jumped 10.2%. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles declined 1.2% in the latest month.
For the other major nonmanufacturing components, utilities plunged 7.7% while mining output slipped 0.4%.
On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in February came in at down 11.2%; a worsening from down 10.1% in January.
Total manufacturing production was off 13.1%, the largest year-over-year contraction of this cycle.
By contrast,the worst year-over-year decrease during the 2001 recession was just 6.1%.
The bottom line is that industrial production is still quite weak, falling in eleven of the last thirteen months.
NY Empire State Mfg Survey Mar -38.2 vs -34.7
New orders showed acute weakness at -44.8, down nearly 15 points and pointing to severe contraction for shipments in the months ahead.
Shipments in March are already showing acute contraction, at -22.7 vs. February's -8.1.
Manufacturers in the region, as they are across the world, are aggressively cutting inventories, the index for which fell nearly 20 points in the month to -27.
Philadelphia Fed Survey Mar -35 vs -41.3
Violent contraction is a description that comes to mind.
Contraction in new orders deepened, down more than 10 points to -40.7 in a reading that points to greater contraction ahead for general conditions and for employment.
Employment fell more than 6 points to -52.0.
Inventory destocking is becoming more urgent based on this report as the inventories index plunged more than 30 points to -55.6.
And based on this report, there's no question that deflation is a major risk.
Both input and output prices indicate major month-to-month price contraction, at -31.3 for prices paid and -32.6 for prices received.
Manufacturers in the region also see prices continuing to contract six months from now...
an early indication that deflation psychology -- that is buy it later when it costs less -- may be setting in.
Initial Jobless Claims 03/19 -12K
The number of unemployed keep rising. Despite initial claims falling from 658K to 646K; the 4 week MA moved up +3.75K to 654.75K.
Continuing jobless claims rose a very steep 185K to a record 5.473M.
It's taking longer and longer for the jobless to find work as the 4 week MA +118.75K to a record 5.132M.
See the states with an increase of more than 1K to observe the widespread carnage that started in housing.
Where the rubber meets the road... from the Industrial Production report...
Unfortunately for flatbed carriers, primary and fabricated metal production was off 40.5% and 15.8%, from a year ago.
In February, the ATA manufacturing index (ATA re-weights manufacturing output based on its importance to truck tonnage...
as opposed to value, which yields a more accurate indicator for the trucking industry.) plummeted 14.4% from February 2008...
which tied January 2009 for the largest year-over-year contraction in the history of the index (dating back to 1986) and marked the 13th consecutive decrease.
Long-term flows are showing weakness in two of the last three available months of data. F
oreign demand for U.S. financial assets appears to be easing, no surprise given the nation's surging deficit.
Foreign investors continue to divest their U.S. agency holdings which fell a massive $22.5 billion in the month on top of December's even more massive $37.4 billion.
Foreigners were also net sellers of corporate bonds, down $8.4 billion in the month.
Foreigners continue to buy Treasuries, up $10.7 billion in the month with holdings by China up again.
PPI Feb +0.1%
2nd straight increase; Yoy -1.6%; Core PPI +0.2%; Yoy +3.9%. Indicates that price pressures are easing despite some firming in energy costs.
CPI Feb +0.4% vs +0.3%
Yoy +0.1%; Core CPI +0.2%; Yoy +1.8%. Energy +3.3%; Gasoline +8.3%; showed widespread and moderate gains within the core as asset prices continue to deflate.
NAHB/WF Housing Market Index Mar 9 vs 9
The good news is that the housing market index isn't falling any further. The bad news is that it's already at rock bottom.
Buyer traffic fell 2 points to 9. Foreclosure moratoriums, falling prices and low mortgage rates have to yet to help the housing market. Bail all you want to no avail.
Housing Starts Feb 583M vs 466M
Starts +22.2%; Yoy Starts -47.3%; SFR starts +1.1%; Yoy -50.6%. More important indicator of future growth...
Building Permits 547M vs 521M +3% Yoy -44.2%; SFR +11%; Yoy -42.3%.
Seasonal factors are large during winter months and it does not take much to jack up the adjusted numbers.
Industrial Production Feb -1.4% vs -1.8%
Manufacturing fell only 0.7% after a 2.7% drop in January. Manufacturing was bolstered by the return of auto assemblies.
Motor vehicles and parts jumped 10.2%. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles declined 1.2% in the latest month.
For the other major nonmanufacturing components, utilities plunged 7.7% while mining output slipped 0.4%.
On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in February came in at down 11.2%; a worsening from down 10.1% in January.
Total manufacturing production was off 13.1%, the largest year-over-year contraction of this cycle.
By contrast,the worst year-over-year decrease during the 2001 recession was just 6.1%.
The bottom line is that industrial production is still quite weak, falling in eleven of the last thirteen months.
NY Empire State Mfg Survey Mar -38.2 vs -34.7
New orders showed acute weakness at -44.8, down nearly 15 points and pointing to severe contraction for shipments in the months ahead.
Shipments in March are already showing acute contraction, at -22.7 vs. February's -8.1.
Manufacturers in the region, as they are across the world, are aggressively cutting inventories, the index for which fell nearly 20 points in the month to -27.
Philadelphia Fed Survey Mar -35 vs -41.3
Violent contraction is a description that comes to mind.
Contraction in new orders deepened, down more than 10 points to -40.7 in a reading that points to greater contraction ahead for general conditions and for employment.
Employment fell more than 6 points to -52.0.
Inventory destocking is becoming more urgent based on this report as the inventories index plunged more than 30 points to -55.6.
And based on this report, there's no question that deflation is a major risk.
Both input and output prices indicate major month-to-month price contraction, at -31.3 for prices paid and -32.6 for prices received.
Manufacturers in the region also see prices continuing to contract six months from now...
an early indication that deflation psychology -- that is buy it later when it costs less -- may be setting in.
Initial Jobless Claims 03/19 -12K
The number of unemployed keep rising. Despite initial claims falling from 658K to 646K; the 4 week MA moved up +3.75K to 654.75K.
Continuing jobless claims rose a very steep 185K to a record 5.473M.
It's taking longer and longer for the jobless to find work as the 4 week MA +118.75K to a record 5.132M.
See the states with an increase of more than 1K to observe the widespread carnage that started in housing.
Where the rubber meets the road... from the Industrial Production report...
Unfortunately for flatbed carriers, primary and fabricated metal production was off 40.5% and 15.8%, from a year ago.
In February, the ATA manufacturing index (ATA re-weights manufacturing output based on its importance to truck tonnage...
as opposed to value, which yields a more accurate indicator for the trucking industry.) plummeted 14.4% from February 2008...
which tied January 2009 for the largest year-over-year contraction in the history of the index (dating back to 1986) and marked the 13th consecutive decrease.
Comments