The Dead Pool - A Gloating Update
All from our Dead Pool mentioned 09/05/07; put into full effect 09/11/07 and expanded for the year end 12/31/07:
Year End Dead Pool: #1 Citibank; #2 Merrill Lynch; #3 Countrywide; #4 Wachovia; #5 WaMu; #6 Wells Fargo; #7 IndyMac; #8 Ambac & MGIC; #9 FNMA; #10 FHLMC.
Dishonorable Mention: Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley. Foreign Legion of Dishonor: Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS.
Domestically, only Wells & JP Morgan remain and ONLY due to accepting mandated taxpayer bailout money. All others have been bailed, bought or BKed out.
Despite the patently cooked books which continue to "Stumpf" naive investors, we suspect Wells will be the next in line.
But what about the bond insurer's Ambac & MGIC? Not far away, my pretties... Losses have, in effect, wiped out equity holders in Ambac and MBIA.
This week, Moody’s warned it might cut Ambac’s ratings – perhaps even to junk status – due to losses on mortgage-backed securities.
Brian Monteleone, analyst at Barclays Capital:
"There are still strong concerns about whether there is enough capital [at Ambac and MBIA] to meet commitments to policyholders.
Not all of the $280bn they guarantee is likely to have been written down, so...
policyholders remain worried about what would happen if Ambac or MBIA were to be seized by regulators.”
The Nattering One muses... In the case of:
the emasculated outsourced economy, the housing collapse, the overleveraged derivatives collapse, the stock market collapse,
the resulting long term economic malaise, Fannie, Freddie, PBGC & FDIC, our predictions were 3 to 4 years in advance.
Damm we are good. Anyone wanna read the next three years headlines in advance? Just keep us bookmarked, stop by regular and tell your best friends.
Have a Hoppy Easter.
Year End Dead Pool: #1 Citibank; #2 Merrill Lynch; #3 Countrywide; #4 Wachovia; #5 WaMu; #6 Wells Fargo; #7 IndyMac; #8 Ambac & MGIC; #9 FNMA; #10 FHLMC.
Dishonorable Mention: Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley. Foreign Legion of Dishonor: Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS.
Domestically, only Wells & JP Morgan remain and ONLY due to accepting mandated taxpayer bailout money. All others have been bailed, bought or BKed out.
Despite the patently cooked books which continue to "Stumpf" naive investors, we suspect Wells will be the next in line.
But what about the bond insurer's Ambac & MGIC? Not far away, my pretties... Losses have, in effect, wiped out equity holders in Ambac and MBIA.
This week, Moody’s warned it might cut Ambac’s ratings – perhaps even to junk status – due to losses on mortgage-backed securities.
Brian Monteleone, analyst at Barclays Capital:
"There are still strong concerns about whether there is enough capital [at Ambac and MBIA] to meet commitments to policyholders.
Not all of the $280bn they guarantee is likely to have been written down, so...
policyholders remain worried about what would happen if Ambac or MBIA were to be seized by regulators.”
The Nattering One muses... In the case of:
the emasculated outsourced economy, the housing collapse, the overleveraged derivatives collapse, the stock market collapse,
the resulting long term economic malaise, Fannie, Freddie, PBGC & FDIC, our predictions were 3 to 4 years in advance.
Damm we are good. Anyone wanna read the next three years headlines in advance? Just keep us bookmarked, stop by regular and tell your best friends.
Have a Hoppy Easter.
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