Economic Reports 04/05/09
S&P Case Schiller Housing Price Index Jan
Data confirms that home-price contraction was deepening at the outset of the year.
More recent data on new and existing home sales shows no let up in the contraction during February.
Composite 10 city -2.5%; 158 vs 162.2; Yoy -19.4%. 20 city -2.8%; 146.4 vs 150.7; Yoy -19%.
Pending Home Sales Feb
Reflecting the effects of falling mortgage rates and falling home prices on foreclosure fire sales. +2.1% vs -7.7%; 82.1 vs 80.4
Construction Spending Feb
-0.9% vs -3.5%; reports said slowing less than expected, under the sheets...
private residential -4.3%; Yoy total construction -10%; residential -29.2%; private construction -14.9%.
The economic engine responsible for 80% of all jobs created since 2001 private residential SFR -10.9%; Yoy -30.1%
Motor Vehicle Sales Mar
6.9M vs 6.4M reflecting the effects of dealer fire sales. At GM, sales declines were less severe but still show a 45% year-on-year drop
Chicago PMI Mar
This is the 14th straight month in contraction. 31.4 vs 34.2 shows deepening rates of contraction. A bad sign is continued contraction in input prices.
Destocking is still a priority of purchasers with delivery times showing even fewer delays.
Factory Orders Feb
+1.8% vs -1.9%; durables +3.5%; non durables +0.3%. Non-durable goods were boosted by orders for chemicals.
The ongoing price rise in oil, back above $50 this morning, points to price-related increases underway for many petroleum and petroleum-related products.
Total new orders are still off 18.8% from a year earlier, the third-worst yoy contraction of this cycle.
Destocking continues as inventories, -1.2%, are falling but probably not fast enough.
Factory shipments -0.1% setting an unwanted record of seven straight declines.
The level of shipments continues to lag the level of new orders, a mismatch that points to declining activity ahead.
ISM Manufacutring Index Mar
36.3 vs 35.8; deceptively positive news for the economy. New orders offers very good news as the index jumped more than 8 points to 41.2.
Prices paid, little changed at 31.0, continues to indicate disinflationary pressures.
ISM Services Mar
40.8 vs 41.6; Confirming the deceptive ISM with a step back for the economic outlook.
An 2 point loss in new orders to 38.8 points to slowing business conditions ahead.
The employment index also fell 5 points to 32.3 in a reminder of massive payroll job losses.
Prices also point to deepening contraction, at 39.1 for a 9 point swing downward.
ADP Employment Mar
Absolutely grim calling for -742K private job losses vs -697K.
Business small -284K; medium -330K; large -128K; goods producing -327K; services -415K; manufacturing -206.
Construction -118K, the 26th straight decline totaling 1.135 million jobs lost since Jan 07.
Initial Jobless Claims 03/28
669K vs 652K; +12K with prior week revised +5K to 657K. 4 week MA +6.5K at 656.75K.
Continuing claims +161K to another record 5.728M; 4 week MA +163.5K to a new record 5.496M.
More bad news for California real estate prices and the national economy as...
the Golden State led the nation with 6,720 layoffs last week in construction and services.
Non Farms Jobs Report Mar
Happy daze reporting said, not as bad as expected with Unemployment bursting to 8.5% vs 8.1%; matching Nov 1983. Yoy job "growth" is now -3.5%.
Under the sheets, -663K job creation; worse yet, prior month job destruction revised up -90K to -741K.
No recovery in sight as the emasculation continues with Goods producing -305K; manufacturing -161K; construction -126K.
Data confirms that home-price contraction was deepening at the outset of the year.
More recent data on new and existing home sales shows no let up in the contraction during February.
Composite 10 city -2.5%; 158 vs 162.2; Yoy -19.4%. 20 city -2.8%; 146.4 vs 150.7; Yoy -19%.
Pending Home Sales Feb
Reflecting the effects of falling mortgage rates and falling home prices on foreclosure fire sales. +2.1% vs -7.7%; 82.1 vs 80.4
Construction Spending Feb
-0.9% vs -3.5%; reports said slowing less than expected, under the sheets...
private residential -4.3%; Yoy total construction -10%; residential -29.2%; private construction -14.9%.
The economic engine responsible for 80% of all jobs created since 2001 private residential SFR -10.9%; Yoy -30.1%
Motor Vehicle Sales Mar
6.9M vs 6.4M reflecting the effects of dealer fire sales. At GM, sales declines were less severe but still show a 45% year-on-year drop
Chicago PMI Mar
This is the 14th straight month in contraction. 31.4 vs 34.2 shows deepening rates of contraction. A bad sign is continued contraction in input prices.
Destocking is still a priority of purchasers with delivery times showing even fewer delays.
Factory Orders Feb
+1.8% vs -1.9%; durables +3.5%; non durables +0.3%. Non-durable goods were boosted by orders for chemicals.
The ongoing price rise in oil, back above $50 this morning, points to price-related increases underway for many petroleum and petroleum-related products.
Total new orders are still off 18.8% from a year earlier, the third-worst yoy contraction of this cycle.
Destocking continues as inventories, -1.2%, are falling but probably not fast enough.
Factory shipments -0.1% setting an unwanted record of seven straight declines.
The level of shipments continues to lag the level of new orders, a mismatch that points to declining activity ahead.
ISM Manufacutring Index Mar
36.3 vs 35.8; deceptively positive news for the economy. New orders offers very good news as the index jumped more than 8 points to 41.2.
Prices paid, little changed at 31.0, continues to indicate disinflationary pressures.
ISM Services Mar
40.8 vs 41.6; Confirming the deceptive ISM with a step back for the economic outlook.
An 2 point loss in new orders to 38.8 points to slowing business conditions ahead.
The employment index also fell 5 points to 32.3 in a reminder of massive payroll job losses.
Prices also point to deepening contraction, at 39.1 for a 9 point swing downward.
ADP Employment Mar
Absolutely grim calling for -742K private job losses vs -697K.
Business small -284K; medium -330K; large -128K; goods producing -327K; services -415K; manufacturing -206.
Construction -118K, the 26th straight decline totaling 1.135 million jobs lost since Jan 07.
Initial Jobless Claims 03/28
669K vs 652K; +12K with prior week revised +5K to 657K. 4 week MA +6.5K at 656.75K.
Continuing claims +161K to another record 5.728M; 4 week MA +163.5K to a new record 5.496M.
More bad news for California real estate prices and the national economy as...
the Golden State led the nation with 6,720 layoffs last week in construction and services.
Non Farms Jobs Report Mar
Happy daze reporting said, not as bad as expected with Unemployment bursting to 8.5% vs 8.1%; matching Nov 1983. Yoy job "growth" is now -3.5%.
Under the sheets, -663K job creation; worse yet, prior month job destruction revised up -90K to -741K.
No recovery in sight as the emasculation continues with Goods producing -305K; manufacturing -161K; construction -126K.
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