Economic Reports 04/19/09
TIC Feb
+$22B vs -$43B; net purchases improved with China & Japan picking up more Treasury holdings & agency paper.
Foreigners less interested in stocks with net outflow of -$5.1 B; Short term securities outflow -$97B vs a record -$147B in Jan.
The outflow suggests that the U.S. may have trouble funding its account deficit in what would be a negative for the dollar.
PPI March
-1.2% vs +0.1$; Yoy -3.6%; Core PPI Flat vs +0.2%; Yoy +3.8%. Unexpected fall in energy prices -5.5% and gasoline -13% spurred the decline.
The declining PPI is a sign of economic weakness combined with stagflation... Core prices sans food & energy are still on the rise.
CPI March
-0.1% vs +0.4%; Yoy -0.4% vs +0.1%; CPI Core +0.2% vs +0.2%; Yoy +1.8% vs +1.8%.
A rising core (ex food & energy) shows stagflation; while declining headline rates indicate widespread deflation.
WF/NAHB Housing Index April
14 vs 9; hailed as the biggest gain in six years and suggesting that the housing depression is at or near bottom.
Don't hold your breath as Starts & Permits outshadowed this survey of builder "confidence".
Housing Starts & Permits March
510K vs 583K -10.8% vs +17.2% proving that Feb was a head fake. Yoy -48.4%. Permits -9% vs +6.2%; Yoy -45%.
This sector remains under pressure from excess supply of unsold homes. The recent spike in foreclosure rates overshadows any imagined improvements in this sector.
Retail Sales March
Negative and calling into question the green shoots theory that recovery is underway.
-1.1% vs -0.1%; ex Auto -0.9% vs +0.7%; retail sales -0.9% vs +1%. Overall retail sales Yoy accelerating to -9.4% vs -7.9%; ex auto -6% from -4.5%.
Empire State April
-14.7 vs -38.2; new orders -3.9 vs -44.8; shipments -1.8 vs -26.7. However bloating inventories -36 vs -27 which are detrimental.
Overall improvement, but still in contraction and confirming the severity of the Philadelphia region report.
Philadelphia Fed April
-24.4 vs -35; as contraction in the regions manufacturing economy remains severe.
New orders -24.3 vs -39; the pace of layoffs improving with employment at -44.9 vs -56.
The readings are deeply negative, but indicate that month to month contraction may be slowing, which is good news, but not great news.
However, contraction of current production is increasing; shipments -35.7 vs -25; workweek hours -41 vs -31.
The cutback in output reflects prior contraction in orders. Input prices -31.5 and output prices deteriorating to -41.4...
confirming that manufacturers have no pricing power. The price readings are record lows for the data series which began in 1967.
Business Inventories Feb
-1.3% vs -1.1% Businesses are draining their inventories as fast as possible -1.3% vs a 0.2% rise in sales.
However, there is more work to be done with sales retail -1.1%; manufacturing -0.1% & wholesale +0.6% as destocking continues.
Bloated inventories add to GDP but lead to job losses and future production cuts.
Industrial Production March
-1.5% vs -1.4%; another sharp broad based decline with manufacturing accelerating to the downside -1.7% vs -0.6% in Feb.
The freefall in industrial production has led to both closing of plants and running assembly lines at a much slower pace with utilization at 69.3%;
again setting a historical low for the data series dating back to 1967.
Initial Claims Apr 11th
A mixed report -53K at 610K; 4 week MA -8.5K at 651K; Continuing unemployment +172K at 6.022M; 4 week MA +146K at 5.796M; both setting new records.
+$22B vs -$43B; net purchases improved with China & Japan picking up more Treasury holdings & agency paper.
Foreigners less interested in stocks with net outflow of -$5.1 B; Short term securities outflow -$97B vs a record -$147B in Jan.
The outflow suggests that the U.S. may have trouble funding its account deficit in what would be a negative for the dollar.
PPI March
-1.2% vs +0.1$; Yoy -3.6%; Core PPI Flat vs +0.2%; Yoy +3.8%. Unexpected fall in energy prices -5.5% and gasoline -13% spurred the decline.
The declining PPI is a sign of economic weakness combined with stagflation... Core prices sans food & energy are still on the rise.
CPI March
-0.1% vs +0.4%; Yoy -0.4% vs +0.1%; CPI Core +0.2% vs +0.2%; Yoy +1.8% vs +1.8%.
A rising core (ex food & energy) shows stagflation; while declining headline rates indicate widespread deflation.
WF/NAHB Housing Index April
14 vs 9; hailed as the biggest gain in six years and suggesting that the housing depression is at or near bottom.
Don't hold your breath as Starts & Permits outshadowed this survey of builder "confidence".
Housing Starts & Permits March
510K vs 583K -10.8% vs +17.2% proving that Feb was a head fake. Yoy -48.4%. Permits -9% vs +6.2%; Yoy -45%.
This sector remains under pressure from excess supply of unsold homes. The recent spike in foreclosure rates overshadows any imagined improvements in this sector.
Retail Sales March
Negative and calling into question the green shoots theory that recovery is underway.
-1.1% vs -0.1%; ex Auto -0.9% vs +0.7%; retail sales -0.9% vs +1%. Overall retail sales Yoy accelerating to -9.4% vs -7.9%; ex auto -6% from -4.5%.
Empire State April
-14.7 vs -38.2; new orders -3.9 vs -44.8; shipments -1.8 vs -26.7. However bloating inventories -36 vs -27 which are detrimental.
Overall improvement, but still in contraction and confirming the severity of the Philadelphia region report.
Philadelphia Fed April
-24.4 vs -35; as contraction in the regions manufacturing economy remains severe.
New orders -24.3 vs -39; the pace of layoffs improving with employment at -44.9 vs -56.
The readings are deeply negative, but indicate that month to month contraction may be slowing, which is good news, but not great news.
However, contraction of current production is increasing; shipments -35.7 vs -25; workweek hours -41 vs -31.
The cutback in output reflects prior contraction in orders. Input prices -31.5 and output prices deteriorating to -41.4...
confirming that manufacturers have no pricing power. The price readings are record lows for the data series which began in 1967.
Business Inventories Feb
-1.3% vs -1.1% Businesses are draining their inventories as fast as possible -1.3% vs a 0.2% rise in sales.
However, there is more work to be done with sales retail -1.1%; manufacturing -0.1% & wholesale +0.6% as destocking continues.
Bloated inventories add to GDP but lead to job losses and future production cuts.
Industrial Production March
-1.5% vs -1.4%; another sharp broad based decline with manufacturing accelerating to the downside -1.7% vs -0.6% in Feb.
The freefall in industrial production has led to both closing of plants and running assembly lines at a much slower pace with utilization at 69.3%;
again setting a historical low for the data series dating back to 1967.
Initial Claims Apr 11th
A mixed report -53K at 610K; 4 week MA -8.5K at 651K; Continuing unemployment +172K at 6.022M; 4 week MA +146K at 5.796M; both setting new records.
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