Economic Reports 05/10/09
Construction Spending March
+0.3% vs -0.9%; an unexpected rebound, but housing is still on a downtrend. Private residential -4.2%; Single Family -8.6%.
Year over year overall construction -11.1%; private -16.3%; residential -34%; single family -51.6%. Recovery? Nowhere in sight...
Pending Home Sales March
This meaningless indicator jumped +3.2% on foreclosure sales.
ISM Services April
43.7 vs 40.8; the contraction may be slowing? New orders +8 to 47; employment +5 to 37; prices paid still contracting at 40.
Productivity & Costs Q1
Productivity Q/Q +0.8 vs -0.4%; labor costs +3.3% vs +5.7%. Hours worked declining at a -9% annual pace.
The improvement was due to a larger drop in hours worked and a less negative decline in output.
The latest productivity report shows businesses cutting labor hours to reduce costs as is typical during this stage of recession.
Businesses are reducing labor costs and workers are feeling it in reduced hours and slower compensation growth.
Wholesale Trade March
-1.6% vs -1.5% as wholesalers are liquidating inventories aggressively but perhaps still not fast enough relative to faster declines sales.
Wholesale inventories fell 1.6% in March vs a 2.4% decline for sales.
A 1.6% decline in durables inventories for March, though here too sales of durables declined even faster at 2.4%.
Inventories of nondurables, which are sensitive to price effects for commodities, fell 0.3 % with sales down 1.6%.
ADP Employment April
Total non farm private -491K; services -229K; goods producing -262K; manufacturing -159K (38th straight decline).
Business large -77k; medium -231K; small -183K; construction -95K (27th straight decline; total decline since Jan 07 peak = 1.2 million)
Jobless Claims 05/02
Media flash jobless claims down -34K at 601K; 4 week MA -14.75K at 623.5K. Under the sheets...
continuing claims with a 14th straight increase +56K to a new record 6.351M; 4 week MA +125K at 6.082M
Non Farms Employment April
Media spin sez unemployment number less than expected, recovery imminent -539K vs -663K; under the sheets private sector employment -611K.
Unemployment rate -8.9% vs -8.5%; manufacturing -149K, trade & transportation -126K, professional business services -122K, construction -110K.
Since Dec 07 5.7 million jobs have been lost and long term unemployment has balloned by 2.4 million.
Table A12 U6 Total unemployed now a staggering 15.8%.
The Nattering One muses... the media & other cheerleaders (NAR, etc.) may exude hope.
We don't believe as the numbers tell the truth, that being... there is no recovery under way and the situation is worsening.
8.9% unemployment today will be over 10% by the end of July. 66% of all foreclosures are being held off the market...
creating illusory prices in a market already wrought with falsehoods. B of A needs $34 billion to survive its stress test...
Wells panhandling for $6 billion to stay afloat. Get ready for the next down leg, for it is almost upon us and its going to be a long and hard one.
+0.3% vs -0.9%; an unexpected rebound, but housing is still on a downtrend. Private residential -4.2%; Single Family -8.6%.
Year over year overall construction -11.1%; private -16.3%; residential -34%; single family -51.6%. Recovery? Nowhere in sight...
Pending Home Sales March
This meaningless indicator jumped +3.2% on foreclosure sales.
ISM Services April
43.7 vs 40.8; the contraction may be slowing? New orders +8 to 47; employment +5 to 37; prices paid still contracting at 40.
Productivity & Costs Q1
Productivity Q/Q +0.8 vs -0.4%; labor costs +3.3% vs +5.7%. Hours worked declining at a -9% annual pace.
The improvement was due to a larger drop in hours worked and a less negative decline in output.
The latest productivity report shows businesses cutting labor hours to reduce costs as is typical during this stage of recession.
Businesses are reducing labor costs and workers are feeling it in reduced hours and slower compensation growth.
Wholesale Trade March
-1.6% vs -1.5% as wholesalers are liquidating inventories aggressively but perhaps still not fast enough relative to faster declines sales.
Wholesale inventories fell 1.6% in March vs a 2.4% decline for sales.
A 1.6% decline in durables inventories for March, though here too sales of durables declined even faster at 2.4%.
Inventories of nondurables, which are sensitive to price effects for commodities, fell 0.3 % with sales down 1.6%.
ADP Employment April
Total non farm private -491K; services -229K; goods producing -262K; manufacturing -159K (38th straight decline).
Business large -77k; medium -231K; small -183K; construction -95K (27th straight decline; total decline since Jan 07 peak = 1.2 million)
Jobless Claims 05/02
Media flash jobless claims down -34K at 601K; 4 week MA -14.75K at 623.5K. Under the sheets...
continuing claims with a 14th straight increase +56K to a new record 6.351M; 4 week MA +125K at 6.082M
Non Farms Employment April
Media spin sez unemployment number less than expected, recovery imminent -539K vs -663K; under the sheets private sector employment -611K.
Unemployment rate -8.9% vs -8.5%; manufacturing -149K, trade & transportation -126K, professional business services -122K, construction -110K.
Since Dec 07 5.7 million jobs have been lost and long term unemployment has balloned by 2.4 million.
Table A12 U6 Total unemployed now a staggering 15.8%.
The Nattering One muses... the media & other cheerleaders (NAR, etc.) may exude hope.
We don't believe as the numbers tell the truth, that being... there is no recovery under way and the situation is worsening.
8.9% unemployment today will be over 10% by the end of July. 66% of all foreclosures are being held off the market...
creating illusory prices in a market already wrought with falsehoods. B of A needs $34 billion to survive its stress test...
Wells panhandling for $6 billion to stay afloat. Get ready for the next down leg, for it is almost upon us and its going to be a long and hard one.
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