Economic Reports 07/20/09
TIC May
-$19.2B as net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities fell steeply, eflecting foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries, a net $8.8 billion.
Net flows, which include short-term securities, fell $66.6 billion vs. April's decline of $38.0 billion...
which may raise questions over foreign commitment to U.S. securities.
PPI June
+1.8%; Yoy -4.7%; Core PPI +0.5%; Yoy +3.4%. The perfect storm with Energy +6.6%; reflecting stagflation in the Core and deflation on the whole.
CPI June
+0.7%; Yoy -1.2%; Core +0.2%; Yoy +1.7%. Gasoline +17.3% and in line with the PPI.
Retail Sales June
Good news? +0.6%. June’s sequential increase reflected volatile sales at motor vehicle dealerships (+2.3%) and a 5% jump in sales at gas stations, which was mainly due to a surge in gasoline prices.
Bad news, outside of gasoline and motor vehicles, sales were mixed but mostly down.
Excluding those two categories, retail sales actually contracted 0.2%.
Building materials & garden equipment -0.9%. Consumers are eating at home more as food services & drinking places also declined 0.9%.
On a year-over-year basis, total retail sales were down 9% which was the tenth consecutive year-earlier reduction.
Business Inventories May
-1% as destocking continues. It is evident that inventories (relative to sales) are still extremely bloated.
As a result, transport volumes will remain sluggish as the inventory correction continues.
Empire State Manufacturing July
-0.55 vs -9.4; an improvement, but still contracting. Shipments went positive 10.97 vs -4.84 as destocking continued with inventories at -36.48 vs -25.29.
Prices paid jumped 10.42 vs -5.75 reflecting more than just rising energy costs.
Thin inventories are not a vote of confidence in the outlook but will help limit future layoffs as demand for future goods will have to be met by production.
Philly Fed July
-7.5 vs -2.2, the opposite direction of the Empire state. New orders improved slightly, however prices received and employment both fell.
Industrial Production June
-0.4% as manufacturing output (-0.6%) fell for the seventh time in eight months. Consequently, production is currently at its lowest level since July 1998.
Production of durable goods -0.7% while nondurable goods production -0.4%.
Capacity utilization fell again to a new record low at 68% vs 68.3%; meaning 32% of all capacity is idled.
Compared with June 2008, manufacturing output plunged 15.4%, which marked the largest Yoy contraction in the history of the index (dating back to 1972).
Initial Jobless Claims July 11
-47K at 522K; 4 week MA -22.5K at 584.5K; Continuing claims -642K at 6.273M; 4 week MA -110K at 6.666M.
A shorter work week and seasonal adjustments caused the improvement as the number of actual claims filed increased by 86K with continuing claims +64K.
Housing Market Index July
17 vs 15; credit flow is still tight, but lower prices are helping improve traffic.
Housing Starts & Permits
Headline reads a “robust” bounce with total housing starts +3.6% to an annual rate of 582K. Nevertheless, starts Yoy were down a staggering 46%.
SFR starts +14.4%, however, Yoy -28.2%; YTD -43.2%. Permits +8.7%; however Yoy -52%.
-$19.2B as net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities fell steeply, eflecting foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries, a net $8.8 billion.
Net flows, which include short-term securities, fell $66.6 billion vs. April's decline of $38.0 billion...
which may raise questions over foreign commitment to U.S. securities.
PPI June
+1.8%; Yoy -4.7%; Core PPI +0.5%; Yoy +3.4%. The perfect storm with Energy +6.6%; reflecting stagflation in the Core and deflation on the whole.
CPI June
+0.7%; Yoy -1.2%; Core +0.2%; Yoy +1.7%. Gasoline +17.3% and in line with the PPI.
Retail Sales June
Good news? +0.6%. June’s sequential increase reflected volatile sales at motor vehicle dealerships (+2.3%) and a 5% jump in sales at gas stations, which was mainly due to a surge in gasoline prices.
Bad news, outside of gasoline and motor vehicles, sales were mixed but mostly down.
Excluding those two categories, retail sales actually contracted 0.2%.
Building materials & garden equipment -0.9%. Consumers are eating at home more as food services & drinking places also declined 0.9%.
On a year-over-year basis, total retail sales were down 9% which was the tenth consecutive year-earlier reduction.
Business Inventories May
-1% as destocking continues. It is evident that inventories (relative to sales) are still extremely bloated.
As a result, transport volumes will remain sluggish as the inventory correction continues.
Empire State Manufacturing July
-0.55 vs -9.4; an improvement, but still contracting. Shipments went positive 10.97 vs -4.84 as destocking continued with inventories at -36.48 vs -25.29.
Prices paid jumped 10.42 vs -5.75 reflecting more than just rising energy costs.
Thin inventories are not a vote of confidence in the outlook but will help limit future layoffs as demand for future goods will have to be met by production.
Philly Fed July
-7.5 vs -2.2, the opposite direction of the Empire state. New orders improved slightly, however prices received and employment both fell.
Industrial Production June
-0.4% as manufacturing output (-0.6%) fell for the seventh time in eight months. Consequently, production is currently at its lowest level since July 1998.
Production of durable goods -0.7% while nondurable goods production -0.4%.
Capacity utilization fell again to a new record low at 68% vs 68.3%; meaning 32% of all capacity is idled.
Compared with June 2008, manufacturing output plunged 15.4%, which marked the largest Yoy contraction in the history of the index (dating back to 1972).
Initial Jobless Claims July 11
-47K at 522K; 4 week MA -22.5K at 584.5K; Continuing claims -642K at 6.273M; 4 week MA -110K at 6.666M.
A shorter work week and seasonal adjustments caused the improvement as the number of actual claims filed increased by 86K with continuing claims +64K.
Housing Market Index July
17 vs 15; credit flow is still tight, but lower prices are helping improve traffic.
Housing Starts & Permits
Headline reads a “robust” bounce with total housing starts +3.6% to an annual rate of 582K. Nevertheless, starts Yoy were down a staggering 46%.
SFR starts +14.4%, however, Yoy -28.2%; YTD -43.2%. Permits +8.7%; however Yoy -52%.
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