Economic Reports 08/03/09

New Home Sales June

Sales +11% @ 384K; Yoy -21%; YTD -35%. Inventory draw down 8.8 vs 10.2 months; Yoy -17.8%. Median Price -5.8%; Yoy -12%.

S&P Case Schiller Home Price Index May


The 1st increase in 3 years with 10 city index +0.4%; Yoy -16.8%; 20 city +0.5%; Yoy -17.1%

Durable Goods Orders June

-2.5%; ; Yoy -26.8%. New durables ex transport +1.1%; Yoy -24.1%. Non defense capital goods -3.4%; ex aircraft +1.4%.

Chicago PMI July

43.3 vs 39.9; new orders +6 @ 48; employment +6 @ 35.3. The inventories index fell nearly 9 points to 25.4.

There are still imbalances led by rapid destocking of inventories as businesses bring down cash expenses.

Initial Claims July 25

+25K at 584K; 4 week MA -8.25K at 559K. Continuing claims -54K at 6.197M; 4 week MA -131K at 6.416M

GDP Q209

-1%; price index +0.2%. Yoy decline -3.9%. Residential investment -29.3% (14th straight decline); business investment -8.9%

The BEA revised historical GDP numbers, which showed that this recession was deeper than previously thought.

Q108 was revised from positive to -0.7; Q308 -2.7 vs -0.5; Q109 -6.4 vs -5.5.

Pulling down GDP in the latest quarter were business fixed investment, housing, personal consumption, and inventories.

The slowing in the rate of decline in the latest quarter was due to a slowing in the decline in inventories...

less negative business fixed investment, less negative housing, a gain in government spending +11%, and a narrowing in net exports.

The big negative was a drop in personal consumption with PCE -1.2%

Where the rubber meets the road… For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.4% vs +3.2%. Yoy tonnage fell 13.6%, which surpassed May’s 11% year-over-year drop.

June’s contraction was the largest yoy decrease of the current cycle, exceeding the 13.2% drop in April.

Moreover, June’s yoy reading was the worst since February 1996.

Comments

Mark said…
Glad to see you posting more often Mr. Nattering Naybob of Negativity!

Always a faithful follower.