Economic Reports 08/10
Motor Vehicle Sales – July
Sales of North American made light vehicles jumped to an 8.3 million annual unit rate in July for a more than 15% rise from June.
The jump of course is tied to the cash-for-clunkers program where discounted prices however will cut in a bit to the month-to-month jump.
Chain Store Sales – July
Chain stores reported weak sales in July, at best no better than June and well short of July's more severe seasonal factors.
The results point to a fifth straight month of contraction for the non-auto non-gas category of the monthly retail sales report.
Contributing are a weak jobs market and low inventories...
that is bare shelves which are giving consumers little selection and are giving retailers little reason to mark down merchandise.
ISM Manufacturing - July
48.9 vs 44.8, a jump of 4.1. New orders 55.3 vs. 49.2, production 57.9 vs. 52.5, backlogs 50.0 vs. 47.5, employment 45.6 vs. 40.7.
Inventories at 33.5 for a 2.7 point improvement. Prices paid also rose, up 5 points to 55.
Factory Orders – June
+0.4% vs +1.2%; reflects that month's jump in energy prices reflected in the nondurables component which rose 2.7% vs. a 2.2% decline for durable goods.
Construction Spending – June
+0.3% vs -0.8%; private nonresidential construction spending fell 0.5%; private residential, SFR outlays rebounded 2.4%.
Yoy overall construction outlays rose to -10.3%; YTD -11.4%; Yoy Manufacturing -48.3%; Private Residential -32.5%.
Personal Income & Spending – June
The report shows the consumer sector getting hit hard in the wallet as income fell and prices rose.
Income -1.3%; Yoy -3.4%; Spending +0.4%; Yoy -2.2%; Core PCE Index +0.2%; Yoy +1.5%.
Personal income fell back heavily due mostly to an end to a specific fiscal stimulus program. Meanwhile, spending and inflation were up.
The boost in consumer spending was led by a 1.7% surge in nondurables which includes gasoline. Durables slipped 0.2% while services edged up a meager 0.1%.
ADP Employment – July
-371K vs -463K; small -138K; mid -159K; large -74K; goods producing -169K; services -202K; manufacturing -99K
ISM Services – July
46.4 vs 47; month-to-month contraction for the bulk of the nation's businesses.
Employment continues to show steep contraction and unfortunately at an accelerating rate, at 41.5 vs. 43.4.
Prices really fell back, down more than 12 points to 41.3 in a decline reflecting the month's dip in energy prices...
but also indicating a general lack of pricing power not consistent with economic strength.
Initial Jobless Claims – 08/01
Some McJobs are returning, however no improvement in the dwindling base of durable economic jobs.
-38K at 550K; 4 week MA -4.75K at 555.25K; Continuing unemployment +69K at 6.310M; 4 week MA -148K at 6.278M
Nonfarm Payrolls – July
An improvement? Again, McJobs, Welcome to WalMart… -247K vs -443K; 9.4 vs 9.5%.
Goods-producing -128K vs 223K; construction -76K; manufacturing -52K. Service-providing -119K vs -220K.
Sales of North American made light vehicles jumped to an 8.3 million annual unit rate in July for a more than 15% rise from June.
The jump of course is tied to the cash-for-clunkers program where discounted prices however will cut in a bit to the month-to-month jump.
Chain Store Sales – July
Chain stores reported weak sales in July, at best no better than June and well short of July's more severe seasonal factors.
The results point to a fifth straight month of contraction for the non-auto non-gas category of the monthly retail sales report.
Contributing are a weak jobs market and low inventories...
that is bare shelves which are giving consumers little selection and are giving retailers little reason to mark down merchandise.
ISM Manufacturing - July
48.9 vs 44.8, a jump of 4.1. New orders 55.3 vs. 49.2, production 57.9 vs. 52.5, backlogs 50.0 vs. 47.5, employment 45.6 vs. 40.7.
Inventories at 33.5 for a 2.7 point improvement. Prices paid also rose, up 5 points to 55.
Factory Orders – June
+0.4% vs +1.2%; reflects that month's jump in energy prices reflected in the nondurables component which rose 2.7% vs. a 2.2% decline for durable goods.
Construction Spending – June
+0.3% vs -0.8%; private nonresidential construction spending fell 0.5%; private residential, SFR outlays rebounded 2.4%.
Yoy overall construction outlays rose to -10.3%; YTD -11.4%; Yoy Manufacturing -48.3%; Private Residential -32.5%.
Personal Income & Spending – June
The report shows the consumer sector getting hit hard in the wallet as income fell and prices rose.
Income -1.3%; Yoy -3.4%; Spending +0.4%; Yoy -2.2%; Core PCE Index +0.2%; Yoy +1.5%.
Personal income fell back heavily due mostly to an end to a specific fiscal stimulus program. Meanwhile, spending and inflation were up.
The boost in consumer spending was led by a 1.7% surge in nondurables which includes gasoline. Durables slipped 0.2% while services edged up a meager 0.1%.
ADP Employment – July
-371K vs -463K; small -138K; mid -159K; large -74K; goods producing -169K; services -202K; manufacturing -99K
ISM Services – July
46.4 vs 47; month-to-month contraction for the bulk of the nation's businesses.
Employment continues to show steep contraction and unfortunately at an accelerating rate, at 41.5 vs. 43.4.
Prices really fell back, down more than 12 points to 41.3 in a decline reflecting the month's dip in energy prices...
but also indicating a general lack of pricing power not consistent with economic strength.
Initial Jobless Claims – 08/01
Some McJobs are returning, however no improvement in the dwindling base of durable economic jobs.
-38K at 550K; 4 week MA -4.75K at 555.25K; Continuing unemployment +69K at 6.310M; 4 week MA -148K at 6.278M
Nonfarm Payrolls – July
An improvement? Again, McJobs, Welcome to WalMart… -247K vs -443K; 9.4 vs 9.5%.
Goods-producing -128K vs 223K; construction -76K; manufacturing -52K. Service-providing -119K vs -220K.
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