Economic Reports 08/24/09
TIC Foreign Capital Inflow June
90.7B vs -19,8B a big jump in foreign buying of long-term U.S. financial assets.
Foreign demand was centered in Treasury coupons, at a net plus $100.5B despite a dip in Chinese holdings.
Foreigners were also very big buyers of equities where the net gain was $19.1B.
The bad news, the 3rd straight negative month of total net flows at minus $31.2B vs. minus $65.7B
Empire State Manufacturing Aug
12.08 vs -0.55 New orders show a second month of actual month-to-month growth at 13.43 and a nice acceleration from July's 5.89.
Shipments, at 14.11, also show a second month of growth.
The pace of destocking is slowing with inventories at minus 22.34 vs. July's minus 36.46. The pace of layoffs is likewise slowing: minus 7.45 vs. minus 20.83
Prices paid, up more than 3 points to 13.83 to indicate rising demand for inputs likely centered in energy.
Weak demand, prices received fell more than 4 points to minus 12.77.
Philly Fed Aug
4.2 vs -7.5; new orders which also came in at +4.2.
Inventories are another good signal, showing little change at +0.3 to end a long string of deeply negative readings.
The strength is translating into rising prices for raw materials as prices paid jumped nearly 15 points to +10.
Pricing power for finished products is still slipping but just barely, at -1.5 vs. -21.5 in July.
The bad news is employment readings still show deterioration with the number-of-employees index at -12.9, albeit improved from July's -25.3,
Housing Permits & Starts July
The former economic engine is still a disaster. Starts -1% at 581K; Yoy -37%; YTD SFR -39.8%. Permits -1.8% at 560K; Yoy -39%; YTD SFR -35.7%.
NAHB Housing Index Aug
18 vs 17 traffic is up for new homebuilders, but sales are not improving, still too many distress sales in the existing home market.
Existing Home Sales July
+7.2% at 5.24M; the strongest jump in 10 years and a doubling of the prior month's percentage gain.
Distressed sales are still heavy at 31% of total sales.
Despite the acceleration, the number of homes on the market rose to 4.1 million but the supply relative to sales is unchanged at 9.4 months.
Imagine this? Declining prices -2% are a major reason for the increase in sales.
Credit's hard to get making cash king as cash transactions made up 16% of July's total vs. a long term average of under 10%.
PPI July
-0.9% Yoy -6.4%; Core -0.1%; Yoy +2.6% The July drop in energy prices was not due to gasoline but to a 10.2% plunge in heating oil costs.
Gasoline prices actually rose 3.3% while residential electricity was unchanged.
The core rate in July eased largely on a 0.7% drop in prices for light trucks as a result of cash for clunkers.
Initial Jobless Claims 08/15
Despite any improvement in Philly Fed; Empire State & possibly ISM, this report is what needs to be watched for signs of an economic recovery.
Not good news, +15K at 576K; 4 week MA +4.25K at 570K. Continuing claims +2K at 6.241M; 4 week MA -2.5K at 6.266M
90.7B vs -19,8B a big jump in foreign buying of long-term U.S. financial assets.
Foreign demand was centered in Treasury coupons, at a net plus $100.5B despite a dip in Chinese holdings.
Foreigners were also very big buyers of equities where the net gain was $19.1B.
The bad news, the 3rd straight negative month of total net flows at minus $31.2B vs. minus $65.7B
Empire State Manufacturing Aug
12.08 vs -0.55 New orders show a second month of actual month-to-month growth at 13.43 and a nice acceleration from July's 5.89.
Shipments, at 14.11, also show a second month of growth.
The pace of destocking is slowing with inventories at minus 22.34 vs. July's minus 36.46. The pace of layoffs is likewise slowing: minus 7.45 vs. minus 20.83
Prices paid, up more than 3 points to 13.83 to indicate rising demand for inputs likely centered in energy.
Weak demand, prices received fell more than 4 points to minus 12.77.
Philly Fed Aug
4.2 vs -7.5; new orders which also came in at +4.2.
Inventories are another good signal, showing little change at +0.3 to end a long string of deeply negative readings.
The strength is translating into rising prices for raw materials as prices paid jumped nearly 15 points to +10.
Pricing power for finished products is still slipping but just barely, at -1.5 vs. -21.5 in July.
The bad news is employment readings still show deterioration with the number-of-employees index at -12.9, albeit improved from July's -25.3,
Housing Permits & Starts July
The former economic engine is still a disaster. Starts -1% at 581K; Yoy -37%; YTD SFR -39.8%. Permits -1.8% at 560K; Yoy -39%; YTD SFR -35.7%.
NAHB Housing Index Aug
18 vs 17 traffic is up for new homebuilders, but sales are not improving, still too many distress sales in the existing home market.
Existing Home Sales July
+7.2% at 5.24M; the strongest jump in 10 years and a doubling of the prior month's percentage gain.
Distressed sales are still heavy at 31% of total sales.
Despite the acceleration, the number of homes on the market rose to 4.1 million but the supply relative to sales is unchanged at 9.4 months.
Imagine this? Declining prices -2% are a major reason for the increase in sales.
Credit's hard to get making cash king as cash transactions made up 16% of July's total vs. a long term average of under 10%.
PPI July
-0.9% Yoy -6.4%; Core -0.1%; Yoy +2.6% The July drop in energy prices was not due to gasoline but to a 10.2% plunge in heating oil costs.
Gasoline prices actually rose 3.3% while residential electricity was unchanged.
The core rate in July eased largely on a 0.7% drop in prices for light trucks as a result of cash for clunkers.
Initial Jobless Claims 08/15
Despite any improvement in Philly Fed; Empire State & possibly ISM, this report is what needs to be watched for signs of an economic recovery.
Not good news, +15K at 576K; 4 week MA +4.25K at 570K. Continuing claims +2K at 6.241M; 4 week MA -2.5K at 6.266M
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