Economic Reports Weeks of 09/07 & 09/14/09
Chicago PMI August
A nice rise on cash for clunkers; 50 vs 43.4; production +10 to 52.9. The rise in output put stress on the supply chain as deliveries slowed +5 to 54.9.
Orders are moving into backlogs up nearly 14 points to 45.8. To meet production needs, Chicago businesses drew down their inventories, to 27.5 vs. July's 25.4.
New orders, which point to future production, increased strongly in August, to 52.5 for a 4-1/2 point gain.
The gain in production and gain in new orders have to yet significantly slow the pace of layoffs...
as the employment index shows severe month-to-month contraction at 38.7.
ISM August
Another cash for clunkers boost 52.9 vs 48.9; over 50 for the 1st time since the beginning of the recession. New orders led the advance, at 64.9 vs. 55.3.
Production was also very strong in August, at 61.9 for a 4 point gain and pointing to gains in durable goods shipments and total manufacturing sales.
Backlogs also increased, at 52.5 vs. 50.0 in July. But manufacturers are not stocking up...
instead they continue to draw down inventories; a very weak 34.4 vs. 33.5.
All the strength here is flowing through to prices where the prices paid index jumped 10 points to 65...
an indication that buyers are bidding up prices for raw materials.
Construction Spending July
-0.2%; Yoy -10.5%; residential +2.3%; Yoy -26.9%; a significant bounce in private residential +8.1%; however, Yoy -32.1%
Productivity & Costs Q2:09
Productivity +6.6% vs +6.4%; Unit labor costs -5.9% vs -5.8%. Productivity is up sharply on cost cutting by businesses as reflected in a sizeable drop in unit labor costs.
The boost in productivity and drop in unit labor costs clearly reflect businesses putting jobs and weekly hours on the chopping block.
Factory Orders July
+1.3% vs +0.4%; Durable goods orders, boosted by an aircraft-related burst of 18.5% in transportation goods, jumped 5.1% for the biggest gain in two years.
Motor vehicle orders fell 1.3% with this component likely to reverse given empty dealer lots following the big cash-for-clunkers stimulus promotion.
Nondurable goods orders fell 1.9%, the largest drop this year and reflecting declines in petroleum and coal products.
Excluding durable and non-durable transportation goods, orders fell 0.7%.
Factories continued to burn through inventories, down 0.7%. Shipments were unchanged but included a second month of solid gains for capital goods.
ISM Services August
48.4 vs 46.4; Recovery is elusive for the ISM's non-manufacturing report which continues to signal month-to-month declines.
New orders were about even with July, at 49.9, but non-manufacturing firms continue to cut back on staff. Prices jumped 22 points to 63.1.
The employment index, though improving 2 points, remains well below 50 at 43.5 -- meaning that many more respondents said their workforce decreased than increased.
Wholesale Trade July
Inventories -1.4%; Sales +0.5%; wholesalers continue to burn through inventory.
Businesses are playing it very cautiously and are deciding to meet output needs through drawdown of existing stocks.
Import & Export Prices August
Export +0.7%; Yoy -6.1%; Import +2%; Yoy -15%; Inflation effects from the dollar's weakness are beginning to be felt.
Ex petroleum, imported prices rose a sharp 0.4%. Prices of imported manufactured goods rose a steep 0.6%.
Export agricultural prices + 0.2%. Export prices for non-agricultural goods jumped an unusually high +0.8%.
International Trade July
-$32B vs -$27B worsening significantly due to a wider nonpetroleum goods deficit which grew to $23.5B from $19.8B the previous month.
Yoy, overall exports - 22.4%; imports -30.4% The good news, imports of capital equipment also rose sharply...
indicating that businesses are starting to look ahead for upgrading production facilities.
Initial Claims 09/03
-4K at 570K; 4 week MA +4K at 571.25K; Continuing claims +92K at 6.234M; 4 week MA -27.25K at 6.244M
Initial Claims 09/10
-26K at 550K; 4 week MA -2.75K at 570K; Continuing claims -159K at 6.088M; 4 week MA -37.75K at 6.182M
The last two lists of states with an increase greater than 1K: FL, NY, NJ, TX, GA, CA, OH. Despite the improving numbers, not a good sign.
Non Farm Payrolls August
-216K vs -247K; unemployment 9.7% vs 9.4%; June revised to -463K; goods-producing jobs -136K.
Construction jobs -65K while manufacturing -63K. Service-providing losses -80K.
A nice rise on cash for clunkers; 50 vs 43.4; production +10 to 52.9. The rise in output put stress on the supply chain as deliveries slowed +5 to 54.9.
Orders are moving into backlogs up nearly 14 points to 45.8. To meet production needs, Chicago businesses drew down their inventories, to 27.5 vs. July's 25.4.
New orders, which point to future production, increased strongly in August, to 52.5 for a 4-1/2 point gain.
The gain in production and gain in new orders have to yet significantly slow the pace of layoffs...
as the employment index shows severe month-to-month contraction at 38.7.
ISM August
Another cash for clunkers boost 52.9 vs 48.9; over 50 for the 1st time since the beginning of the recession. New orders led the advance, at 64.9 vs. 55.3.
Production was also very strong in August, at 61.9 for a 4 point gain and pointing to gains in durable goods shipments and total manufacturing sales.
Backlogs also increased, at 52.5 vs. 50.0 in July. But manufacturers are not stocking up...
instead they continue to draw down inventories; a very weak 34.4 vs. 33.5.
All the strength here is flowing through to prices where the prices paid index jumped 10 points to 65...
an indication that buyers are bidding up prices for raw materials.
Construction Spending July
-0.2%; Yoy -10.5%; residential +2.3%; Yoy -26.9%; a significant bounce in private residential +8.1%; however, Yoy -32.1%
Productivity & Costs Q2:09
Productivity +6.6% vs +6.4%; Unit labor costs -5.9% vs -5.8%. Productivity is up sharply on cost cutting by businesses as reflected in a sizeable drop in unit labor costs.
The boost in productivity and drop in unit labor costs clearly reflect businesses putting jobs and weekly hours on the chopping block.
Factory Orders July
+1.3% vs +0.4%; Durable goods orders, boosted by an aircraft-related burst of 18.5% in transportation goods, jumped 5.1% for the biggest gain in two years.
Motor vehicle orders fell 1.3% with this component likely to reverse given empty dealer lots following the big cash-for-clunkers stimulus promotion.
Nondurable goods orders fell 1.9%, the largest drop this year and reflecting declines in petroleum and coal products.
Excluding durable and non-durable transportation goods, orders fell 0.7%.
Factories continued to burn through inventories, down 0.7%. Shipments were unchanged but included a second month of solid gains for capital goods.
ISM Services August
48.4 vs 46.4; Recovery is elusive for the ISM's non-manufacturing report which continues to signal month-to-month declines.
New orders were about even with July, at 49.9, but non-manufacturing firms continue to cut back on staff. Prices jumped 22 points to 63.1.
The employment index, though improving 2 points, remains well below 50 at 43.5 -- meaning that many more respondents said their workforce decreased than increased.
Wholesale Trade July
Inventories -1.4%; Sales +0.5%; wholesalers continue to burn through inventory.
Businesses are playing it very cautiously and are deciding to meet output needs through drawdown of existing stocks.
Import & Export Prices August
Export +0.7%; Yoy -6.1%; Import +2%; Yoy -15%; Inflation effects from the dollar's weakness are beginning to be felt.
Ex petroleum, imported prices rose a sharp 0.4%. Prices of imported manufactured goods rose a steep 0.6%.
Export agricultural prices + 0.2%. Export prices for non-agricultural goods jumped an unusually high +0.8%.
International Trade July
-$32B vs -$27B worsening significantly due to a wider nonpetroleum goods deficit which grew to $23.5B from $19.8B the previous month.
Yoy, overall exports - 22.4%; imports -30.4% The good news, imports of capital equipment also rose sharply...
indicating that businesses are starting to look ahead for upgrading production facilities.
Initial Claims 09/03
-4K at 570K; 4 week MA +4K at 571.25K; Continuing claims +92K at 6.234M; 4 week MA -27.25K at 6.244M
Initial Claims 09/10
-26K at 550K; 4 week MA -2.75K at 570K; Continuing claims -159K at 6.088M; 4 week MA -37.75K at 6.182M
The last two lists of states with an increase greater than 1K: FL, NY, NJ, TX, GA, CA, OH. Despite the improving numbers, not a good sign.
Non Farm Payrolls August
-216K vs -247K; unemployment 9.7% vs 9.4%; June revised to -463K; goods-producing jobs -136K.
Construction jobs -65K while manufacturing -63K. Service-providing losses -80K.
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