Economic Reports 10/20/09
Import & Export Prices September
Import +0.1%; Yoy -12%; Export -0.3%; Yoy -5.6%. Import prices ex oil +0.4%; posing evidence that the weak dollar is increasing inflation pressures.
Business Inventories August
-1.5%; despite a sales increase of 1%; businesses are still burning through inventory. Retail sales post cash for clunker -2.3%; ex auto -0.3%
Businesses have been cutting expenses to an extreme degree this recession, reflected not only in the drop for inventories but also in the labor-force drop.
CPI September
+0.2% vs +0.4%; Core +0.2%; The slowing was due to a dip in food prices and a dramatically slower gain in energy costs.
The core rate firmed despite declines in rent and owners' equivalent rent, the first decreases in those indexes since 1992.
Empire State October
34.57 vs 18.88 New orders have been mirroring the overall index, now at 30.82. Unfilled orders have finally popped over zero...
now at 2.60 and reflecting the increasing level of activity that is backing up work.
Shipments really jumped in the month to 35.08 vs. September's 5.34, helping to drive up employment to 10.39 in a reading that ends a long string of declines.
Manufacturers in the region continue to work down inventories aggressively, at -18.18 vs. -25.00
Philly Fed October
11.5 vs 14.1; new orders did accelerate slightly, to 6.2 vs. 3.3; Shipments, at 3.3, increased in the month but at a slower rate than September when the reading was 8.2.
The modest level of shipping isn't increasing the need for manufacturers to add new hands and feet as the employment index, at minus 6.8, shows month-to-month contraction once again.
Inventories which continue to contract and at a much more severe rate, at minus 31.8 vs. minus 18.1 in September.
The minus 31.8 reading, together with a negative reading in the inventories index of the Empire State report…
put into question the improvement recorded in the ISM's manufacturing report for September that indicated firms were beginning to shift into restocking mode.
Industrial Production September
+0.7%; vs +1.2%; Capacity Utilization 70.5 vs 69.6%; production ex auto +0.4%; Yoy production -6.1%. Improvement due to the cash for clunkers program. Will it persist?
TIC August
$28.6B vs 15.3B; Foreigners were net buyers of Treasury bonds and notes, at $23.9B, and were net buyers of equities, at $10.5B, and also net buyers of government agency bonds, at $5.2B.
Total net flows, which include short-term securities predominately Treasury bills, were up $10.2B vs. an outflow of $107.7 B in July.
Initial Jobless Claims 10/10
-10K at 514K; 4 week MA -9K at 531K ; Continuing claims -75K at 5.992M; 4 week MA -68K at 6.082M.
Florida and Calif got a reprieve, but the list of states greater than 1K is long. Does this bode well for the non farms report? Probably not.
Import +0.1%; Yoy -12%; Export -0.3%; Yoy -5.6%. Import prices ex oil +0.4%; posing evidence that the weak dollar is increasing inflation pressures.
Business Inventories August
-1.5%; despite a sales increase of 1%; businesses are still burning through inventory. Retail sales post cash for clunker -2.3%; ex auto -0.3%
Businesses have been cutting expenses to an extreme degree this recession, reflected not only in the drop for inventories but also in the labor-force drop.
CPI September
+0.2% vs +0.4%; Core +0.2%; The slowing was due to a dip in food prices and a dramatically slower gain in energy costs.
The core rate firmed despite declines in rent and owners' equivalent rent, the first decreases in those indexes since 1992.
Empire State October
34.57 vs 18.88 New orders have been mirroring the overall index, now at 30.82. Unfilled orders have finally popped over zero...
now at 2.60 and reflecting the increasing level of activity that is backing up work.
Shipments really jumped in the month to 35.08 vs. September's 5.34, helping to drive up employment to 10.39 in a reading that ends a long string of declines.
Manufacturers in the region continue to work down inventories aggressively, at -18.18 vs. -25.00
Philly Fed October
11.5 vs 14.1; new orders did accelerate slightly, to 6.2 vs. 3.3; Shipments, at 3.3, increased in the month but at a slower rate than September when the reading was 8.2.
The modest level of shipping isn't increasing the need for manufacturers to add new hands and feet as the employment index, at minus 6.8, shows month-to-month contraction once again.
Inventories which continue to contract and at a much more severe rate, at minus 31.8 vs. minus 18.1 in September.
The minus 31.8 reading, together with a negative reading in the inventories index of the Empire State report…
put into question the improvement recorded in the ISM's manufacturing report for September that indicated firms were beginning to shift into restocking mode.
Industrial Production September
+0.7%; vs +1.2%; Capacity Utilization 70.5 vs 69.6%; production ex auto +0.4%; Yoy production -6.1%. Improvement due to the cash for clunkers program. Will it persist?
TIC August
$28.6B vs 15.3B; Foreigners were net buyers of Treasury bonds and notes, at $23.9B, and were net buyers of equities, at $10.5B, and also net buyers of government agency bonds, at $5.2B.
Total net flows, which include short-term securities predominately Treasury bills, were up $10.2B vs. an outflow of $107.7 B in July.
Initial Jobless Claims 10/10
-10K at 514K; 4 week MA -9K at 531K ; Continuing claims -75K at 5.992M; 4 week MA -68K at 6.082M.
Florida and Calif got a reprieve, but the list of states greater than 1K is long. Does this bode well for the non farms report? Probably not.
Comments