Economic Reports Week Ending 10/23/09
NAHB/WF Housing Index Oct
18 vs 19; pending expiration of the $8K tax credit already taking its toll; traffic -3 at 14.
The results hint at a step back for housing which had been on the rebound thanks to government stimulus.
Existing Home Sales September
Good news: +9.4% to 5.57M vs 5.1M; inventory down 7.5% at 3.63M; 7.8 vs 9.3 months at current pace.
Bad news: prices -1.4% median $175K; Yoy -8.5%. Distressed sales made up 29% of total sales.
Still, home values are very weak and will continue to weaken consumer confidence and spending power and will limit the ability of consumers to tap into home equity.
Housing Starts & Permits September
No recovery here, despite the tax credit, YTD is still a disaster with the indication of future growth, permits, declining further.
Starts +0.5% at 590K; Yoy -28.2%; YTD -42.7%; SFR +3.9%; Yoy -8.7%; YTD -34.5%
Permits -1.2% at 573K; Yoy -28.9%;YTD -41.9%; SFR -3%; Yoy -14.9%; YTD -30.9%
PPI September
-0.6% vs +1.7%; Yoy -4.7%; Core -0.1% vs +0.2%; Yoy +1.8%
PPI is still lagging the recent jump to $80 a barrel oil. Inflation clearly has been temporarily masked by weak demand and an earlier dip in oil prices.
But in coming months we will see a rise in the headline number from recently strong oil prices.
Initial Jobless Claims 10/22
+11K at 531K; 4 week MA -750 at 532.25K; Continuing claims -98K at 5.923M; 4 week MA -59K at 6.030M
Headline number increased, continuing claims is decreasing not due to hiring; but due to expiration of benefits.
List of states with greater than 1K increase is long and hard.
The Nattering One muses... It appears the home tax credit and credit for clunkers effects are starting to wane.
The actual increase from all this stimulus to Q309 advance GDP was 0.94%, but that isn't the end of the story.
You can't handle the truth... Sept. Machinery and furniture output fell 0.9% and 1%, respectively. Compared with September 2008, total manufacturing production fell 7.2%.
Total retail sales fell 1.5%; Yoy -5.7%; as post cash for clunkers motor vehicle sales plunged 10.4%.
We repeat, no one and nothing stops this trainwreck, bailout and stimulus package all you want...
As we have maintained all along... no repatriated durable economic jobs, no durable economic base, no recovery, end of story.
18 vs 19; pending expiration of the $8K tax credit already taking its toll; traffic -3 at 14.
The results hint at a step back for housing which had been on the rebound thanks to government stimulus.
Existing Home Sales September
Good news: +9.4% to 5.57M vs 5.1M; inventory down 7.5% at 3.63M; 7.8 vs 9.3 months at current pace.
Bad news: prices -1.4% median $175K; Yoy -8.5%. Distressed sales made up 29% of total sales.
Still, home values are very weak and will continue to weaken consumer confidence and spending power and will limit the ability of consumers to tap into home equity.
Housing Starts & Permits September
No recovery here, despite the tax credit, YTD is still a disaster with the indication of future growth, permits, declining further.
Starts +0.5% at 590K; Yoy -28.2%; YTD -42.7%; SFR +3.9%; Yoy -8.7%; YTD -34.5%
Permits -1.2% at 573K; Yoy -28.9%;YTD -41.9%; SFR -3%; Yoy -14.9%; YTD -30.9%
PPI September
-0.6% vs +1.7%; Yoy -4.7%; Core -0.1% vs +0.2%; Yoy +1.8%
PPI is still lagging the recent jump to $80 a barrel oil. Inflation clearly has been temporarily masked by weak demand and an earlier dip in oil prices.
But in coming months we will see a rise in the headline number from recently strong oil prices.
Initial Jobless Claims 10/22
+11K at 531K; 4 week MA -750 at 532.25K; Continuing claims -98K at 5.923M; 4 week MA -59K at 6.030M
Headline number increased, continuing claims is decreasing not due to hiring; but due to expiration of benefits.
List of states with greater than 1K increase is long and hard.
The Nattering One muses... It appears the home tax credit and credit for clunkers effects are starting to wane.
The actual increase from all this stimulus to Q309 advance GDP was 0.94%, but that isn't the end of the story.
You can't handle the truth... Sept. Machinery and furniture output fell 0.9% and 1%, respectively. Compared with September 2008, total manufacturing production fell 7.2%.
Total retail sales fell 1.5%; Yoy -5.7%; as post cash for clunkers motor vehicle sales plunged 10.4%.
We repeat, no one and nothing stops this trainwreck, bailout and stimulus package all you want...
As we have maintained all along... no repatriated durable economic jobs, no durable economic base, no recovery, end of story.
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