Economic Reports 11/06/09
Construction Spending September
Total +0.8%; Yoy -13%; August was revised from +0.8% to +0.1%. Residential +3.9%; Yoy -26.3%; YTD -30.4%
Total Private +0.5%; Yoy -20.6%; Residential +3.9%; Yoy -27% YTD -31.2%
ISM Mfg Index October
55.7 vs 52.6; in contrast to the non farms report employment +7 to 53.1; production +7.5 to 63.3.
In contrast to Factory Orders data; Inventories +4.5 to 46.9 as destocking ends and restocking begins??
However, forward momentum is not accelerating witnessed by new orders declining for the 2nd straight month, 58.5 vs. Sept 60.8 and Aug 64.9.
ISM Services October
50.6 vs 50.9; new orders +1.4 at 55.6; However, employment -3 at 41.1; inventories destocking -4.5 to 43.
Factory Orders September
+0.9% vs -0.8%; durable +1.4%; non durable +0.6% (boosted by chemical prices). All orders including unfilled Yoy -25.8%
A rebound in nondefense capital goods orders +2.3% (ex aircraft +1.8%) though the outlook for further increases is uncertain given weak indications on business investment.
In contrast to the ISM; Unfilled orders -0.4%; the 12th straight decline, the longest in the data series history since 1992.
Inventories continue to destock with a 13th straight decline -1%.
Wholesale Trade September
Inventories -0.9% vs -1.3%; Yoy -15% as destocking continues. Sales +0.7%;
Less-than-robust sales combined with continued destocking point to future job losses in the wholesale sector.
ADP Employment October
-203K vs -227K; small -75K; mid -75K; large -53K; goods producing -117K; services -86K; manufacturing -65K; construction -51K.
Productivity & Costs Q309
Productivity +9.5% vs +6.6%; Costs -5.2% vs -5.9%; as corporate America tightens further through layoffs.
The latest productivity numbers are good news for companies trying to improve their profits but they are bad news for the unemployed.
Firms are expecting remaining employers to work harder instead of starting to rehire.
Initial Jobless Claims 10/31
-20K at 512K; 4 week MA -3K at 523.75K; Continuing claims -68K at 5.817M; 4 week MA -79.5K at 5.886M. The list of states increasing >1K swelled.
The continuing claims number keeps declining due to claims running out. How do we know this?
Emergency claims +90.239K at 3.459M vs last year 836K as the ranks of chronically long term unemployed swell.
Non Farm Payrolls October
-190K vs -219K; Unemployment 10.2% vs 9.8% the highest since 1983; goods producing -129K; construction -62K; services -61K; trade & transportation -66K.
The really bad news within the unemployment rate spike is that it was not due to a rise in the labor force...
(more choosing to look for jobs) but by a 558K surge in the number of unemployed.
The labor force actually dipped 31K with 35.6% of unemployed being long term and Table A12 U6 total unemployment hit 17.5%.
Total +0.8%; Yoy -13%; August was revised from +0.8% to +0.1%. Residential +3.9%; Yoy -26.3%; YTD -30.4%
Total Private +0.5%; Yoy -20.6%; Residential +3.9%; Yoy -27% YTD -31.2%
ISM Mfg Index October
55.7 vs 52.6; in contrast to the non farms report employment +7 to 53.1; production +7.5 to 63.3.
In contrast to Factory Orders data; Inventories +4.5 to 46.9 as destocking ends and restocking begins??
However, forward momentum is not accelerating witnessed by new orders declining for the 2nd straight month, 58.5 vs. Sept 60.8 and Aug 64.9.
ISM Services October
50.6 vs 50.9; new orders +1.4 at 55.6; However, employment -3 at 41.1; inventories destocking -4.5 to 43.
Factory Orders September
+0.9% vs -0.8%; durable +1.4%; non durable +0.6% (boosted by chemical prices). All orders including unfilled Yoy -25.8%
A rebound in nondefense capital goods orders +2.3% (ex aircraft +1.8%) though the outlook for further increases is uncertain given weak indications on business investment.
In contrast to the ISM; Unfilled orders -0.4%; the 12th straight decline, the longest in the data series history since 1992.
Inventories continue to destock with a 13th straight decline -1%.
Wholesale Trade September
Inventories -0.9% vs -1.3%; Yoy -15% as destocking continues. Sales +0.7%;
Less-than-robust sales combined with continued destocking point to future job losses in the wholesale sector.
ADP Employment October
-203K vs -227K; small -75K; mid -75K; large -53K; goods producing -117K; services -86K; manufacturing -65K; construction -51K.
Productivity & Costs Q309
Productivity +9.5% vs +6.6%; Costs -5.2% vs -5.9%; as corporate America tightens further through layoffs.
The latest productivity numbers are good news for companies trying to improve their profits but they are bad news for the unemployed.
Firms are expecting remaining employers to work harder instead of starting to rehire.
Initial Jobless Claims 10/31
-20K at 512K; 4 week MA -3K at 523.75K; Continuing claims -68K at 5.817M; 4 week MA -79.5K at 5.886M. The list of states increasing >1K swelled.
The continuing claims number keeps declining due to claims running out. How do we know this?
Emergency claims +90.239K at 3.459M vs last year 836K as the ranks of chronically long term unemployed swell.
Non Farm Payrolls October
-190K vs -219K; Unemployment 10.2% vs 9.8% the highest since 1983; goods producing -129K; construction -62K; services -61K; trade & transportation -66K.
The really bad news within the unemployment rate spike is that it was not due to a rise in the labor force...
(more choosing to look for jobs) but by a 558K surge in the number of unemployed.
The labor force actually dipped 31K with 35.6% of unemployed being long term and Table A12 U6 total unemployment hit 17.5%.
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