Economic Reports 11/25/09
Empire State November
23.51 vs 34.57; New orders 16.66 vs 34.57; Despite high fuel prices, gains in raw material prices slowed as prices paid fell back about 9 points to 10.53.
Lower raw material prices are consistent with slowing demand.
Philly Fed November
16.7 vs 11.5; Employment marginally negative at minus 0.5. New orders rose sharply, to 14.8 from 6.2 in perhaps the best reading of all.
Business Inventories September
-0.4% vs -1.5%; Restocking at auto dealers, in yet another cash-for-clunkers effect, held back the rate of inventory draw.
Dealers and auto parts stores added more than $4 billion to their inventories in September for a 3.8 percent surge and biggest since 1992.
Excluding autos, business inventories fall a more noticeable 0.8%.
Durable Goods Orders October
-0.6%; Yoy new orders -11.9%; ex transport -1.3%; Yoy -11.3%; machinery – 8%, followed by a 2.1% decrease in computers & electronics.
New orders for nondefense capital goods +1.2%. Excluding aircraft, new orders for nondefense capital goods fell 2.9%.
PPI October
+0.3%; Yoy -1.9%; Core -0.6%; Yoy +0.7%; The core rate was pulled down primarily by 5.2% drop in light truck prices and a 0.5% decline in prices for passenger cars.
Inflation pressures firmed at earlier stages of production. Prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.3% and the crude goods index increased 5.4%.
CPI October
+0.3%; Core +0.2%; Energy, gasoline, medical care & food all rising.
TIC September
$40.7B vs $28.6B; Foreign demand for U.S. financial assets remains light but is up in the latest data.
Demand for long-term Treasuries was also very strong, up a net $44.4B. China, which is voicing concern over the decline in the dollar, is not increasing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
Industrial Production October
+0.1%; Yoy -7.1%; Utilization 70.7% vs 70.5%; the manufacturing component declined 0.1%; durables fell 0.4%; manufacturing ex-motor vehicles was down 0.1%
GDP Q3:09
Year-on-year, real GDP stood at minus 2.4% compared to minus 3.8% in the second quarter. First, final sales were revised down to an annualized 1.9%.
Demand is not as strong as earlier believed. Second, the downward revision to the price index also indicates softness in demand.
Corporate profits are still down 7.2% on a year-on-year basis, compared to down 19.2% in Q2.
NAHB Housing Index November
17 vs 18; A negative in the details is that traffic is especially weak in what is a bad sign for the nation's home builders.
S&P Case Shiller September
10 city +0.4%; Yoy -8.5%; in contrast with price data in the existing home sales report where contraction, though slowing a bit, is still underway.
Existing Home Sales October
+10.1% at 6.1M; Yoy +23.5%; inventory -136K at 3.57M; 7 vs 8 months; median price -1.6% at 173K; Yoy -7.1%.
New Home Sales October
+6.2% at 430K; Supply at current sales rate is 6.7 vs 7.4 months; average price -8.3%
Housing Starts October
Starts -10.6% at 529K; Yoy -30.7%; YTD -41.9%; SFR -6.8%; Yoy -10.9%; YTD -32.5%
Permits -4% at 552K; Yoy 24.3%; YTD -40.5%; SFR -0.2%; Yoy -4%; YTD -29%
Personal Income & Spending October
Income +0.2%; Yoy -1%; Spending +0.7%; Yoy +0.9%; Core PCE +0.2%.
We are seeing probably the final impact of cash-for-clunkers on personal spending in October. Motor vehicle sales fell sharply in September with the ending of incentives in August.
After taking into account weakness in wages and salaries and that the spending gain was a partial rebound from clunkers, it is indicative of a soft consumer sector.
Initial Jobless Claims 11/21
-35K at 466K; 4 week MA -16.5K at 496.5K; Continuing claims -190K at 5.423M; 4 week MA -98.5K at 5.613M
Emergency claims +16.370K at 3.639M vs 766K last year.
23.51 vs 34.57; New orders 16.66 vs 34.57; Despite high fuel prices, gains in raw material prices slowed as prices paid fell back about 9 points to 10.53.
Lower raw material prices are consistent with slowing demand.
Philly Fed November
16.7 vs 11.5; Employment marginally negative at minus 0.5. New orders rose sharply, to 14.8 from 6.2 in perhaps the best reading of all.
Business Inventories September
-0.4% vs -1.5%; Restocking at auto dealers, in yet another cash-for-clunkers effect, held back the rate of inventory draw.
Dealers and auto parts stores added more than $4 billion to their inventories in September for a 3.8 percent surge and biggest since 1992.
Excluding autos, business inventories fall a more noticeable 0.8%.
Durable Goods Orders October
-0.6%; Yoy new orders -11.9%; ex transport -1.3%; Yoy -11.3%; machinery – 8%, followed by a 2.1% decrease in computers & electronics.
New orders for nondefense capital goods +1.2%. Excluding aircraft, new orders for nondefense capital goods fell 2.9%.
PPI October
+0.3%; Yoy -1.9%; Core -0.6%; Yoy +0.7%; The core rate was pulled down primarily by 5.2% drop in light truck prices and a 0.5% decline in prices for passenger cars.
Inflation pressures firmed at earlier stages of production. Prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.3% and the crude goods index increased 5.4%.
CPI October
+0.3%; Core +0.2%; Energy, gasoline, medical care & food all rising.
TIC September
$40.7B vs $28.6B; Foreign demand for U.S. financial assets remains light but is up in the latest data.
Demand for long-term Treasuries was also very strong, up a net $44.4B. China, which is voicing concern over the decline in the dollar, is not increasing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
Industrial Production October
+0.1%; Yoy -7.1%; Utilization 70.7% vs 70.5%; the manufacturing component declined 0.1%; durables fell 0.4%; manufacturing ex-motor vehicles was down 0.1%
GDP Q3:09
Year-on-year, real GDP stood at minus 2.4% compared to minus 3.8% in the second quarter. First, final sales were revised down to an annualized 1.9%.
Demand is not as strong as earlier believed. Second, the downward revision to the price index also indicates softness in demand.
Corporate profits are still down 7.2% on a year-on-year basis, compared to down 19.2% in Q2.
NAHB Housing Index November
17 vs 18; A negative in the details is that traffic is especially weak in what is a bad sign for the nation's home builders.
S&P Case Shiller September
10 city +0.4%; Yoy -8.5%; in contrast with price data in the existing home sales report where contraction, though slowing a bit, is still underway.
Existing Home Sales October
+10.1% at 6.1M; Yoy +23.5%; inventory -136K at 3.57M; 7 vs 8 months; median price -1.6% at 173K; Yoy -7.1%.
New Home Sales October
+6.2% at 430K; Supply at current sales rate is 6.7 vs 7.4 months; average price -8.3%
Housing Starts October
Starts -10.6% at 529K; Yoy -30.7%; YTD -41.9%; SFR -6.8%; Yoy -10.9%; YTD -32.5%
Permits -4% at 552K; Yoy 24.3%; YTD -40.5%; SFR -0.2%; Yoy -4%; YTD -29%
Personal Income & Spending October
Income +0.2%; Yoy -1%; Spending +0.7%; Yoy +0.9%; Core PCE +0.2%.
We are seeing probably the final impact of cash-for-clunkers on personal spending in October. Motor vehicle sales fell sharply in September with the ending of incentives in August.
After taking into account weakness in wages and salaries and that the spending gain was a partial rebound from clunkers, it is indicative of a soft consumer sector.
Initial Jobless Claims 11/21
-35K at 466K; 4 week MA -16.5K at 496.5K; Continuing claims -190K at 5.423M; 4 week MA -98.5K at 5.613M
Emergency claims +16.370K at 3.639M vs 766K last year.
Comments