Economic Reports 12/20/09
TIC October
$20.7B vs 40.7B. Foreigners slowed their purchases of U.S. securities. Not great news for the dollar...
or for U.S. policy makers who are depending on foreign demand for deficit funding.
However, foreigners were once again solid buyers of U.S. equities, at a net $10.5 billion,
and were once again aggressive buyers of long U.S. Treasuries, at a net $38.9 billion.
CPI November
+0.4%; Core flat; energy +4.1%; gasoline +6.4%. Shelter costs declined 0.2%, led by a 1.5% drop in lodging away from home.
Owners' equivalent rent dipped 0.1%. Hotels-including resorts-continued to engage in heavy discounting. High unemployment is keeping rent soft in general.
PPI November
Ragin stagflation in the supply chain +1.8%; Core +0.5%; energy +6.9%; gasoline +14.2%
Philly Fed December
20.4 vs 16.7; New orders did slow a bit. Prices paid for raw materials which more than doubled to 33.8,
demand however is not strong enough yet to translate into higher prices for finished goods as prices received remains slightly negative.
A bit of a disappointing reading is a more than 12 point drop in the general six-month outlook.
Industrial Production November
0..8% vs +0.1%; Capacity Utilization 71.3 vs 70.7; manufacturing +1.1%; durables +1%; non durables +1.1%.
Yoy -5.1%. Looks good, but the contrast to more up to date Empire State raises question: Is “recovery” stalling?
Empire State December
2.55 vs 23.51 “growth” slowed to a crawl.
New orders 2.20 vs. 16.66, shipments 6.30 vs. 12.97, employment -5.26 vs. 1.32, workweek -5.26 vs. 5.26, and unfilled orders, -21.05 vs. -2.63.
Prices paid (inputs) was one thing that didn't slow, at 19.74 vs. 10.53.
No pricing power as prices received (outputs) is showing deepening contraction, at -9.21 vs. -2.63.
Housing Market Index December
NAHB/WF index 16 vs 17; a tick down in sales; credit conditions remain very tight...
and that questions over job security are keeping potential buyers from taking advantage of government credits.
Housing Starts & Permits November
The main economic engine of the last decade is still a disaster.
Starts +8.9% at 574K; Yoy -12.4%; YTD -40.3% ; SFR +2.1%; YTD -30.5%
Permits +6% at 584K; Yoy -7.3%; YTD -38.5%; SFR +5.3%; YTD -26.4%
$20.7B vs 40.7B. Foreigners slowed their purchases of U.S. securities. Not great news for the dollar...
or for U.S. policy makers who are depending on foreign demand for deficit funding.
However, foreigners were once again solid buyers of U.S. equities, at a net $10.5 billion,
and were once again aggressive buyers of long U.S. Treasuries, at a net $38.9 billion.
CPI November
+0.4%; Core flat; energy +4.1%; gasoline +6.4%. Shelter costs declined 0.2%, led by a 1.5% drop in lodging away from home.
Owners' equivalent rent dipped 0.1%. Hotels-including resorts-continued to engage in heavy discounting. High unemployment is keeping rent soft in general.
PPI November
Ragin stagflation in the supply chain +1.8%; Core +0.5%; energy +6.9%; gasoline +14.2%
Philly Fed December
20.4 vs 16.7; New orders did slow a bit. Prices paid for raw materials which more than doubled to 33.8,
demand however is not strong enough yet to translate into higher prices for finished goods as prices received remains slightly negative.
A bit of a disappointing reading is a more than 12 point drop in the general six-month outlook.
Industrial Production November
0..8% vs +0.1%; Capacity Utilization 71.3 vs 70.7; manufacturing +1.1%; durables +1%; non durables +1.1%.
Yoy -5.1%. Looks good, but the contrast to more up to date Empire State raises question: Is “recovery” stalling?
Empire State December
2.55 vs 23.51 “growth” slowed to a crawl.
New orders 2.20 vs. 16.66, shipments 6.30 vs. 12.97, employment -5.26 vs. 1.32, workweek -5.26 vs. 5.26, and unfilled orders, -21.05 vs. -2.63.
Prices paid (inputs) was one thing that didn't slow, at 19.74 vs. 10.53.
No pricing power as prices received (outputs) is showing deepening contraction, at -9.21 vs. -2.63.
Housing Market Index December
NAHB/WF index 16 vs 17; a tick down in sales; credit conditions remain very tight...
and that questions over job security are keeping potential buyers from taking advantage of government credits.
Housing Starts & Permits November
The main economic engine of the last decade is still a disaster.
Starts +8.9% at 574K; Yoy -12.4%; YTD -40.3% ; SFR +2.1%; YTD -30.5%
Permits +6% at 584K; Yoy -7.3%; YTD -38.5%; SFR +5.3%; YTD -26.4%
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