NCAA CFP 2014 Football Bowl Predictions - Updated 01/05/2015
Last updated 01/14/2015 7:00AM EST.
Done (39 games) finished at 22-17 (56%) ATS with our BOLD "locks" at 7-2 (77%).
01/02: Didn't see Pitt blowing a 31-6 2nd half lead. Knew Oregon would win, did not expect a "Spinks" cave-in. Five 2nd half turnovers (4 in Q3), by the Seminoles leading to 5 Duck TD's while "Puddles" was dancing up a storm. It was like watching Germany pound Brazil senseless 7-0. Knew the Buckeyes would make a game of it, did not expect them to outplay the Tide from the Q1 on. That's why they play the game and your supposed to settle it not by voting, but on the field. Makes you wonder about all those other rotisserie or fantasy league "National Champions" that the poll-iticos have handed trophies over these many years of pretend and make believe. Doesn't it? I feel for TCU and can't wait for eight or more teams to make it real and legit. Gonna be a hell of a Rose Bowl, er, title game.
01/01: Forgot TCU had a chip on their shoulder, they made a statement. Flopping Ole Miss +3 and GT +7 came out in the wash. Buckeyes +9 TBD.
12/31: Made adjustments to the model, switching three picks: Ole Miss +3 in a "home game"; Georgia Tech +7 with that wishbone is too tempting; Ohio State +9 just too many points to give.
12/29: With a six game losing streak at 3-9 we were getting beat like a drum, but after a nine game win streak we are off the ropes.
12/26: I had my suspicions with smaller ULL and Utah St; Rice and Navy, all teams that predominately run. Seems like 90% run based and "smaller" schools are giving the model problems.
An exercise in futility... we will attempt to pick all 39 bowl games ATS (against the spread). All bowl games are played at "neutral" sites. Bold "bowl" designates any game where the "home team" is playing in the vicinity of their campus and would have a perceived advantage over their opponent.
The line (spread) will be in bold next to our picks; - means favored and we are giving the points; + means underdog and we are getting the points. PK means pick em or even, as in toss a coin there is no spread. A bold face team name indicates we feel especially confident in that team ATS. Games with an asterisk, please see notes below
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions. This information is provided strictly for entertainment purposes, use at your own risk.
Done (39 games) finished at 22-17 (56%) ATS with our BOLD "locks" at 7-2 (77%).
01/02: Didn't see Pitt blowing a 31-6 2nd half lead. Knew Oregon would win, did not expect a "Spinks" cave-in. Five 2nd half turnovers (4 in Q3), by the Seminoles leading to 5 Duck TD's while "Puddles" was dancing up a storm. It was like watching Germany pound Brazil senseless 7-0. Knew the Buckeyes would make a game of it, did not expect them to outplay the Tide from the Q1 on. That's why they play the game and your supposed to settle it not by voting, but on the field. Makes you wonder about all those other rotisserie or fantasy league "National Champions" that the poll-iticos have handed trophies over these many years of pretend and make believe. Doesn't it? I feel for TCU and can't wait for eight or more teams to make it real and legit. Gonna be a hell of a Rose Bowl, er, title game.
01/01: Forgot TCU had a chip on their shoulder, they made a statement. Flopping Ole Miss +3 and GT +7 came out in the wash. Buckeyes +9 TBD.
12/31: Made adjustments to the model, switching three picks: Ole Miss +3 in a "home game"; Georgia Tech +7 with that wishbone is too tempting; Ohio State +9 just too many points to give.
12/29: With a six game losing streak at 3-9 we were getting beat like a drum, but after a nine game win streak we are off the ropes.
12/26: I had my suspicions with smaller ULL and Utah St; Rice and Navy, all teams that predominately run. Seems like 90% run based and "smaller" schools are giving the model problems.
An exercise in futility... we will attempt to pick all 39 bowl games ATS (against the spread). All bowl games are played at "neutral" sites. Bold "bowl" designates any game where the "home team" is playing in the vicinity of their campus and would have a perceived advantage over their opponent.
The line (spread) will be in bold next to our picks; - means favored and we are giving the points; + means underdog and we are getting the points. PK means pick em or even, as in toss a coin there is no spread. A bold face team name indicates we feel especially confident in that team ATS. Games with an asterisk, please see notes below
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions. This information is provided strictly for entertainment purposes, use at your own risk.
| Matchup | Date | Bowl | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Wolfpack (7–5) PK at Louisiana–Lafayette Cajuns (8–4) | Dec. 20 | New Orleans L 0-1 |
3-16 |
| Utah State Aggies (9–4) at UTEP Miners (7–5) +10.5 ** | Dec. 20 | New Mexico L 0-2 |
21-6 |
| #22 Utah Utes (8–4) -3 at Colorado State Rams (10–2) | Dec. 20 | Las Vegas W 1-2 |
45-10 |
| Western Michigan Broncos (8–4) +1.5 at Air Force Falcons (9–3) | Dec. 20 | Idaho Potato L 1-3 |
24-38 |
| Bowling Green Falcons (7–6) +3 at South Alabama Jaguars (6–6) | Dec. 20 | Camellia W 2-3 |
33-28 |
| BYU Cougars (8–4) +1 at Memphis Tigers (9–3) | Dec. 22 | Miami Beach L 2-4 |
48-55 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd (12–1) -9.5 at Northern Illinois Huskies (11–2) | Dec. 23 | Boca Raton W 3-4 |
52-23 |
| Navy Midshipmen (7–5) at San Diego State Aztecs (7–5) -2.5 | Dec. 23 | Poinsettia L 3-5 |
17-16 |
| Central Michigan Chippewas (7–5) at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7–5) -4 | Dec. 24 | Bahamas L 3-6 |
48-49 |
| Fresno State Bulldogs (6–7) +3 at Rice Owls (7–5) | Dec. 24 | Hawaiʻi L 3-7 |
6-30 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini (6–6) +6 at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8–5) | Dec. 26 | Dallas L 3-8 |
18-35 |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7–5) at North Carolina Tar Heels (6–6) -3 | Dec. 26 | Quick Lane L 3-9 |
40-21 |
| NC State Wolfpack (7–5) +2 at UCF Knights (9–3) | Dec. 26 | St. Petersb. W 4-9 |
34-27 |
| Cincinnati Bearcats (9–3) at Virginia Tech Hokies (6–6) +3 | Dec. 27 | Military W 5-9 |
17-33 |
| Duke Blue Devils (9–3) +7.5 at #15 Arizona State Sun Devils (9–3) | Dec. 27 | Sun W 6-9 |
31-36 |
| Miami Hurricanes (6–6) at South Carolina Gamecocks (6–6) +3 | Dec. 27 | Independence W 7-9 |
21-24 |
| Penn State Nittany Lions (6–6) +3 at Boston College Eagles (7–5) | Dec. 27 | Pinstripe W 8-9 |
30-31 |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) +7 at #24 USC Trojans (8–4) | Dec. 27 | Holiday W 9-9 |
42-45 |
| West Virginia Mountaineers (7–5) at Texas A&M Aggies (7–5) +3.5 | Dec. 29 | Liberty W10-9 |
37-45 |
| Oklahoma Sooners (8–4) at #17 Clemson Tigers (9–3) +3 ** | Dec. 29 | Athletic W11-9 |
6-40 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks (6–6) -6 ** at Texas Longhorns (6–6) | Dec. 29 | Texas W12-9 |
31-7 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7–5) at #23 LSU Tigers (8–4) -7 | Dec. 30 | Music City L 12-10 |
31-28 |
| #21 Louisville Cardinals (9–3) at #13 Georgia Bulldogs(9–3) -6.5 | Dec. 30 | Belk W 13-10 |
14-37 |
| Maryland Terrapins (7–5) +14 at Stanford Cardinal (7–5) | Dec. 30 | Foster Farms L13-11 |
21-45 |
| #6 TCU Horned Frogs (11–1) at #9 Ole Miss Rebels (9–3) +3.5 | Dec. 31 | Peach L13-12 |
42-3 |
| #7 Mississippi State Bulldog (10–2) at #12 Georgia Tech YJack (10–3) +7 | Dec. 31 | Orange W14-12 |
34-49 |
| #20 Boise State Broncos (11–2) +3.5 at #10 Arizona Wildcats (10–3) | Dec. 31 | Fiesta W15-12 |
38-30 |
| #18 Wisconsin Badgers (10–3) +7 at #19 Auburn Tigers (8-4) | Jan 1 | Outback W16-12 |
34-31 |
| #8 Michigan State Spartans (10–2) +3 at #5 Baylor Bears (11–1) | Jan 1 | Cotton W17-12 |
42-41 |
| #25 Minnesota Golden Gophers (8–4) at #16 Missouri Tigers (10–3) -4.5 | Jan. 1 | Citrus W18-12 |
17-33 |
| #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (12–1) +9 at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12–1) | Jan. 1 | Sugar W19-12 |
42-35 |
| #3 Florida State Seminoles (13–0) +9.5 at #2 Oregon Ducks (12–1) | Jan. 1 | Rose L19-13 |
20-59 |
| Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) -3 at Houston Cougars (7-5) | Jan. 2 | A. Forces L19-14 |
34-35 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes (7–5) +3.5 at Tennessee Volunteers (6–6) | Jan. 2 | Taxslayer L19-15 |
28-45 |
| #11 Kansas State Wildcats (9–3) at #14 UCLA Bruins (9–3) +1.5 | Jan. 2 | Alamo W20-15 |
35-40 |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys (6–6) at Washington Huskies (8–5) -5.5 | Jan. 2 | Cactus L20-16 |
30-22 |
| Florida Gators (6–5) at East Carolina Pirates (8–4) +7 | Jan. 3 | Birmingham L20-17 |
28-20 |
| Toledo Rockets (8–4) -3 ** at Arkansas State Red Wolves (7–5) | Jan. 4 | GoDaddy W21-17 |
63-44 |
| Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio St. Buckeyes +7 O/U 75 | Jan. 12 | CFP Champ W22-17 |
20-42 |
** Notes: I have agreed with the predictive algorithm utilized in 34 out of 38 games. Following are the explanations for how I picked those four exceptions.
Utah State - UTEP; the model picked UTEP, IMO Utah State is a better team, yet I sided with the model due to the inordinate number of times the model picked UTEP to beat a double digit spread "at home".
Oklahoma - Clemson, the model picked Oklahoma, Clemson finished 8-1 and has the #1 defense in the nation, IMO Clemson +3 "at home" is the better choice.
Arkansas - Texas, the model overwhelmingly picked Texas +6 "at home", IMO Arkansas has a better defense, offense, running game and played a tougher schedule,
Toledo - Arkansas State, the model picked Arkansas State, IMO Toledo played a tougher schedule and only has to cover 3.
CFP Games:
Rose Bowl: Florida St - Oregon, both teams possess ample offensive fire power which keeps their defensive units off the field, and is reflected in the Over/Under at 72 total points.
Although a track meet could break out, with a couple of turnovers each, longer duration of possession could yield a lower than anticipated total score. IMO -9 is too much to give against the undefeated defending National Champion Seminoles, but somehow the Duck's will manage to win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio St. - Alabama, both sides possess a stout defense, balanced offense and conservative play calling as reflected by the Over/Under at 58.5. The Buckeyes 3rd string red shirt sophomore QB Cardale Jones had an excellent debut at home vs the run dependent Badgers. IMO, on this stage in what is essentially a home game for the Crimson Tide, vs defensive savant Nick Saban, it's another story. If things go "south" for young Jones, the total could go over quite easily.
Take it for what it's worth... in the same position as Coach Saban and his defensive coordinator, with only one game film of the subject X factor to reference, the predictive model with injured Buckeye QB J.T. Barrett starting, resulted in 40% nail biter or 60% Tide rolling in a blow out. You gotta love those X factors and given the Buckeye's, Alabama -9 is probably the pick to make. Often wrong but never in doubt.
CFP Games:
Rose Bowl: Florida St - Oregon, both teams possess ample offensive fire power which keeps their defensive units off the field, and is reflected in the Over/Under at 72 total points.
Although a track meet could break out, with a couple of turnovers each, longer duration of possession could yield a lower than anticipated total score. IMO -9 is too much to give against the undefeated defending National Champion Seminoles, but somehow the Duck's will manage to win.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio St. - Alabama, both sides possess a stout defense, balanced offense and conservative play calling as reflected by the Over/Under at 58.5. The Buckeyes 3rd string red shirt sophomore QB Cardale Jones had an excellent debut at home vs the run dependent Badgers. IMO, on this stage in what is essentially a home game for the Crimson Tide, vs defensive savant Nick Saban, it's another story. If things go "south" for young Jones, the total could go over quite easily.
Take it for what it's worth... in the same position as Coach Saban and his defensive coordinator, with only one game film of the subject X factor to reference, the predictive model with injured Buckeye QB J.T. Barrett starting, resulted in 40% nail biter or 60% Tide rolling in a blow out. You gotta love those X factors and given the Buckeye's, Alabama -9 is probably the pick to make. Often wrong but never in doubt.
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