2015 Preakness
Once in a while we dabble in the ponies, today is one of those days.
For the KDerby I would have taken:
American Pharoah (Baffert, Espinoza, Won at Del Mar + 5 straight)
Dortmund (Baffert, Garcia, Won at Santa Anita + 6 straight)
Firing Line (Callahan, Stevens, 2nd at Santa Anita & Los Alamitos, Win/Place in last 5)
I would have paid 6X to box all three on the trifecta which paid 50.50.
Oh well.
Today Sat 16th the PREAKNESS...
The KDerby is 1.25 mile, Preakness is 1 3/16, just slightly shorter, dirt track, good weather.
On the surface 2yr old colt Bodhisattva, in the money 8 of 11 starts appears to be a good long shot bet. Think again, the "enlightened" one has only run once vs graded horses, previous race lengths have been shorter and he has tired to give up the lead in several, again, all against inferior grade horses. A longer race today against Grade 1 horses, does not bode well.
Danzig Moon, 6 races, in the money three times, once vs graded horses. Great morning work horse, much like Mad Men's Don Draper doesn't show up for afternoon meetings, 5th in the derby, unless this horse gets a case of jet lag (confused hours), why should he do better today?
Tale of Verve, 6 starts, 4 in the money, an unknown ??? quantity having NEVER run against Graded horses. Probably the longest shot on the field. $10 to win, show or place, because you just never know what can happen.
A sleeper is Divining Rod, a green colt in the money all 5 races (3 graded) with 2 wins. In March tasted G3 victory in Lexington Stakes. Delacour and Castellano could have a long shot up their sleeve.
Mr. Z, D. Wayne Lukas, Calumet Farm, Nakatani on board, after that its all downhill. 13 starts, 12 vs graded horses, 6 times in the money, tasted victory once. Has finished in the money 3 of 5 times vs G1 horses. With crowded field didn't get a chance to get off the porch to run with the big dogs at KDerby. A hit or miss checkered past, could surprise with Show or Place?
Dortmund, Baffert's chestnut was 6-0, 5-0 vs graded horses, Garcia had this monster in KDerby lead, then faded to taste defeat for the first time, finishing third by a neck, Depending on this colts psyche, could finish in the money today.
Firing Line, 6 outings all win or place, 4 in the money vs graded horses, dueled down stretch at KDerby with American Pharoah to lose by a length, should finish in the money today.
American Pharoah, Baffert, 5 straight wins vs G1 (4), G2 (1) horses by a combined 23 1/4 lengths, lone defeat 5th in maiden at Del Mar. Mostly a front runner, off a wide #14 post Espinoza had to pace the leader to come from the far outside taking Dortmund, Firing Line and the roses. Should repeat and could be the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
For the KDerby I would have taken:
American Pharoah (Baffert, Espinoza, Won at Del Mar + 5 straight)
Dortmund (Baffert, Garcia, Won at Santa Anita + 6 straight)
Firing Line (Callahan, Stevens, 2nd at Santa Anita & Los Alamitos, Win/Place in last 5)
I would have paid 6X to box all three on the trifecta which paid 50.50.
Oh well.
Today Sat 16th the PREAKNESS...
The KDerby is 1.25 mile, Preakness is 1 3/16, just slightly shorter, dirt track, good weather.
On the surface 2yr old colt Bodhisattva, in the money 8 of 11 starts appears to be a good long shot bet. Think again, the "enlightened" one has only run once vs graded horses, previous race lengths have been shorter and he has tired to give up the lead in several, again, all against inferior grade horses. A longer race today against Grade 1 horses, does not bode well.
Danzig Moon, 6 races, in the money three times, once vs graded horses. Great morning work horse, much like Mad Men's Don Draper doesn't show up for afternoon meetings, 5th in the derby, unless this horse gets a case of jet lag (confused hours), why should he do better today?
Tale of Verve, 6 starts, 4 in the money, an unknown ??? quantity having NEVER run against Graded horses. Probably the longest shot on the field. $10 to win, show or place, because you just never know what can happen.
A sleeper is Divining Rod, a green colt in the money all 5 races (3 graded) with 2 wins. In March tasted G3 victory in Lexington Stakes. Delacour and Castellano could have a long shot up their sleeve.
Mr. Z, D. Wayne Lukas, Calumet Farm, Nakatani on board, after that its all downhill. 13 starts, 12 vs graded horses, 6 times in the money, tasted victory once. Has finished in the money 3 of 5 times vs G1 horses. With crowded field didn't get a chance to get off the porch to run with the big dogs at KDerby. A hit or miss checkered past, could surprise with Show or Place?
Dortmund, Baffert's chestnut was 6-0, 5-0 vs graded horses, Garcia had this monster in KDerby lead, then faded to taste defeat for the first time, finishing third by a neck, Depending on this colts psyche, could finish in the money today.
Firing Line, 6 outings all win or place, 4 in the money vs graded horses, dueled down stretch at KDerby with American Pharoah to lose by a length, should finish in the money today.
American Pharoah, Baffert, 5 straight wins vs G1 (4), G2 (1) horses by a combined 23 1/4 lengths, lone defeat 5th in maiden at Del Mar. Mostly a front runner, off a wide #14 post Espinoza had to pace the leader to come from the far outside taking Dortmund, Firing Line and the roses. Should repeat and could be the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
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