A Barometer in Florida?

Nattering at SA, John Mason's This Is Not A Game The Fed Wants...  Snoopy 44's comments italicized below.

"Well Jay, that's great that things are doing so well out in the Midwest. Here in South Fla, not so much. We have an enormous population dependent on food stamps, welfare, and other Govt. support measures. We are building a lot of condos but don't ask me if that is the smart thing to do. Apparently we learned nothing from the real estate collapse in 2008. Recovery? Not really. In your neck of the woods maybe. But not here."


Snoopy,


My apologies and condolences for what I am about to convey, please don't take this the wrong way. IMHO, FLA has its merits and upside. Due to its favorable winter climate, beaches, fishing and active lifestyle many snowbirds and retirees opt to migrate there.


Unfortunately, FLA is a microcosm of the consequences of globalism's outsourcing to labor at the margin, in particular, a dearth of maintaining local competences, economies and independence from the supply chain.  


Making FLA one of my leading barometers for largess and hubris on the public's part. i.e. the bubble is reflated and irrational exuberance abounds. 


"Well Jay, that's great that things are doing so well out in the Midwest. Here in South Fla, not so much. "


The "sunshine" state's greatest exports: oranges, KC and The Sunshine Band? Taking home half your pay in sunshine, doesn't cut it, as FLA suffers a dearth of economic depth. With no durable economic base to speak of (hospitality, pharmacies, elder, health care), the state is completely dependent on housing speculation and the largess of others (snowbird discretionary spending, pensioner's, tourism) which of late, two are serial bubble driven, and some pensions may soon be in danger. 


Surrounded by rising water on all three sides, FLA is like an island where imported goods are shipped in by freighter.  On the flipside, to truck goods in or out, usually requires deadheading which inflates the cost of trucked goods to FLA business and consumers.


"We have an enormous population dependent on food stamps, welfare, and other Govt. support measures. "


In recent years, out of 50 states in educational funding, Florida has ranked 48th K-12 and 50th higher education. A consequence of this dearth of spending, for educational competence FLA currently ranks 28th.

Politifact
Tampa Bay Times

The "success" of the "war on drugs" and massive spending on the creation of a police state has consequences.  FLA is wrought with meth, crack and otherwise known as the "Oxycontin Express". Hence Walter White or Heisenberg cook houses abound while script pill mills, trafficking and drug abuse are epidemic.

Oxycontin Express 
Roxy Road
NPR

Meanwhile, the dearth of spending on economic and educational initiatives has its consequences. The implementation and continuity of a top down plan for economic and educational welfare has never occurred. For decades, the "Gator" state has had an incumbent good ol boys network, ingrained with resistance to change. This is reflected in having the most graft ridden and corrupt state, county and city government officials and agencies in the union. 

Tampa Tribune
Washington Post
Huffington Post


The consequences? The shame is, due to the the aforementioned mitigating factors, the deep South's appendage seems to be a phallic magnet for, a select low income trailer park or penal colony populace. Said undesirables unduly burden the majority of FLA resident's (relocated, seasonal snowbirds, locals, immigrants and indigenous peoples) who are decent, law abiding, hard working or retired, tax paying individuals. 


"We are building a lot of condos but don't ask me if that is the smart thing to do. Apparently we learned nothing from the real estate collapse in 2008."


Bottom line: when overbuilding commences in this area, and people start paying inflated prices for "If you believe that, I've got some swamp land in Florida I'd like to sell you"... 


"Recovery? Not really. In your neck of the woods maybe. But not here."


Then you know with a degree of certainty, that the proverbial IT is about ready to hit the fan once again.


All I can say is put up your hurricane panels and good luck.

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