A Fed Raise Conundrum, Would They?
Summary
Analysis of 10-year Treasury Speculative and Commercial Net Long Positions.
Discussion of the Fed rationale for raising or not raising the Fed Funds rate.
Consequences of a massive flight from the dollar or a dollar melt-up.
Eurodollar/petrodollars' effect on the dollar, oil, commodities and global correlated assets.
In our last missive, we discussed oil and shale breakeven and marginal costs, and some industry claims from oil believers and theorists. It turned out to be quite the spirited discussion in the comments section. Due to popular demand, we are preparing a follow-up to be released soon.
Today, in anticipation of the September 17, 2015, FOMC meeting and announcement, we mostly discuss the possibilities and consequences of a Fed rate raise.
From Ashraf Laidi's Treasury Positioning at Odds with Fed Rate Hike: "The latest positioning figures from the CFTC show longs exceeding shorts by 65,642 contracts, the biggest net long position since May 2013. Such growing bullishness on the 10-year treasury is consistent with the 5-week decline in bond yields, which coincided with plunging oil prices."
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Analysis of 10-year Treasury Speculative and Commercial Net Long Positions.
Discussion of the Fed rationale for raising or not raising the Fed Funds rate.
Consequences of a massive flight from the dollar or a dollar melt-up.
Eurodollar/petrodollars' effect on the dollar, oil, commodities and global correlated assets.
There is no cost involved and it has been our experience that if you exert control (by unchecking a box of two) over your communications settings in your Seeking Alpha profile, your email inbox will not be polluted with one bit of Spam (not even the cured pork shoulder variety. Tasty even.)
As we are now a "contributor" at Seeking Alpha, our published articles, instablog and comments can be found here. Please continue to follow The Nattering Naybob here and at Seeking Alpha. We thank you for your support.
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