NCAA CFP 2015 Football Bowl Predictions - 01/14/16 Update
UPDATED - 01/14/16 - 8AM EST Changes: Final Review
At the end of the day: SU (27-14) 65.8%; ATS (19-22) 46.3%; Locks ATS (6-3) 66.6%; Contrarian ATS (8-6) 57.1%
From Forbes: According to Pinnacle Sports, the majority of bettors placing money on the spread (59%) wagered on Alabama to cover 6.5 points in a win over Clemson, but those with action on the moneyline (solely choosing which team they believed would win the game with a higher multiple for those betting on the underdog) overwhelmingly picked Clemson (70%). Additionally, with a final score of 45-40 in Alabama’s favor, the over/under of 50.5 was easily eclipsed. Yet, according to Pinnacle Sports, 55% took the under.
Championship Game Pick
The 14-0 Tigers potent offense 512 YPG and mobile option set QB Watson are the type that give the 13-1 Tide trouble, and will be the biggest test yet for the Crimson D. ALA D has an incredible front seven that wear opponents down and are stingy vs run 70 YPG 2.3 YPC. In DEC (FLA - 15 MICHST - 29) thats rushing yds allowed folks.
As if the Tide running game was not enough, Henry +2K Yds, 204YPG 4.8YPC, in his last 3 (AUB, FLA, MICHST) Tide QB Coker is red hot, 73% comp, 670 yds, 5 TD, 0 Int. The Tide will attempt to wear down Clemsons front seven with a heavy dose of Henry and Coker throwing as necessary.
In DEC (NCAR, OKLA) Clemson has relied on the pass; rush 104YPG 3.2YPC; pass 275 YPG The Tigers had close calls LOUISV 20-17; NCAR 45-37; SCAR 37-32 and at home vs ND 24-22 on a 2pt conversion failure. Clemson must successfully pass to run on the Tide, if they can this game could be interesting.
Alabama 12-2 all time vs Clemson. Strength of schedule: ALA #4; CLEM #34. The lone Tide loss 43-37 at home vs Ole Miss, turnovers ALA 5 - Miss 0. Will that happen Monday night? The Tide should be a 4.5 pt favorite, opening at -7 the book is trying to scare Bama bettors away and for good reason. Pick SU and ATS Alabama -6.5. (OU 53)
Lesson Learned
This year horrible ATS, and should have faithfully matched ATS with SU picks, as doing so would have resulted in an ATS improvement of 12-4 (+8) resulting in ATS (27-13). Baited by large spreads we took dogs ATS where we had picked the favorite to win SU. This resulted in all six Jan 1st games as ATS losses. Lesson learned, in general, if your picking them to win, pick them against the number and give the points regardless of size of the spread.
An Exercise in Futility
We will attempt to pick all 40 bowl games and the Championship Game, SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread). Last year, with 40 games we finished at 23-17 (57.5%) ATS with our BOLD "locks" at 7-2 (77%).
The line (spread) will be next to our picks; - means favored and we are giving the points; + means underdog and we are getting the points. PK means pick em or even, as in toss a coin there is no spread.
All bowl games are played at "neutral" sites. Bold "Site", which there are 19 (46%), designates any game where one of the teams is playing close enough to their campus and may have a perceived home crowd advantage over their opponent.
A *** triple asterisk next to the team name, which there are 9 (22%) , indicates we feel especially confident in that team ATS.
Games with an asterisk, which there are 14 (34%), these are intuition picks in which I have gone against the model's mathematical prognostication, aka Contrarian Pick.
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions. This information is provided strictly for entertainment purposes, use at your own risk.
At the end of the day: SU (27-14) 65.8%; ATS (19-22) 46.3%; Locks ATS (6-3) 66.6%; Contrarian ATS (8-6) 57.1%
From Forbes: According to Pinnacle Sports, the majority of bettors placing money on the spread (59%) wagered on Alabama to cover 6.5 points in a win over Clemson, but those with action on the moneyline (solely choosing which team they believed would win the game with a higher multiple for those betting on the underdog) overwhelmingly picked Clemson (70%). Additionally, with a final score of 45-40 in Alabama’s favor, the over/under of 50.5 was easily eclipsed. Yet, according to Pinnacle Sports, 55% took the under.
Championship Game Pick
The 14-0 Tigers potent offense 512 YPG and mobile option set QB Watson are the type that give the 13-1 Tide trouble, and will be the biggest test yet for the Crimson D. ALA D has an incredible front seven that wear opponents down and are stingy vs run 70 YPG 2.3 YPC. In DEC (FLA - 15 MICHST - 29) thats rushing yds allowed folks.
As if the Tide running game was not enough, Henry +2K Yds, 204YPG 4.8YPC, in his last 3 (AUB, FLA, MICHST) Tide QB Coker is red hot, 73% comp, 670 yds, 5 TD, 0 Int. The Tide will attempt to wear down Clemsons front seven with a heavy dose of Henry and Coker throwing as necessary.
In DEC (NCAR, OKLA) Clemson has relied on the pass; rush 104YPG 3.2YPC; pass 275 YPG The Tigers had close calls LOUISV 20-17; NCAR 45-37; SCAR 37-32 and at home vs ND 24-22 on a 2pt conversion failure. Clemson must successfully pass to run on the Tide, if they can this game could be interesting.
Alabama 12-2 all time vs Clemson. Strength of schedule: ALA #4; CLEM #34. The lone Tide loss 43-37 at home vs Ole Miss, turnovers ALA 5 - Miss 0. Will that happen Monday night? The Tide should be a 4.5 pt favorite, opening at -7 the book is trying to scare Bama bettors away and for good reason. Pick SU and ATS Alabama -6.5. (OU 53)
Lesson Learned
This year horrible ATS, and should have faithfully matched ATS with SU picks, as doing so would have resulted in an ATS improvement of 12-4 (+8) resulting in ATS (27-13). Baited by large spreads we took dogs ATS where we had picked the favorite to win SU. This resulted in all six Jan 1st games as ATS losses. Lesson learned, in general, if your picking them to win, pick them against the number and give the points regardless of size of the spread.
An Exercise in Futility
We will attempt to pick all 40 bowl games and the Championship Game, SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread). Last year, with 40 games we finished at 23-17 (57.5%) ATS with our BOLD "locks" at 7-2 (77%).
The line (spread) will be next to our picks; - means favored and we are giving the points; + means underdog and we are getting the points. PK means pick em or even, as in toss a coin there is no spread.
All bowl games are played at "neutral" sites. Bold "Site", which there are 19 (46%), designates any game where one of the teams is playing close enough to their campus and may have a perceived home crowd advantage over their opponent.
A *** triple asterisk next to the team name, which there are 9 (22%) , indicates we feel especially confident in that team ATS.
Games with an asterisk, which there are 14 (34%), these are intuition picks in which I have gone against the model's mathematical prognostication, aka Contrarian Pick.
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions. This information is provided strictly for entertainment purposes, use at your own risk.
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